Pre-Christmas Winter Storm Potential

[Hoosier]

^Old run

[Thundersnow12]

Obviously it's been mentioned but the amount of moisture/theta-e available for a intensifying system is really amazing and up there with the GHD storm and you're seeing it just on the 0z GFS with the rapid intensification of the cyclone and large QPF amounts. Nearly perfect and long trajectories from the Gulf.

 

 

 

[Ajdos]

Oops..Sorry I just realized I was looking a an old run lol..Ill post new one in a second! haha

[Hoosier]

00z UKMET has a similar track as the GGEM.  A bit quicker though.

[andyhb]

00z UKMET has a similar track as the GGEM.  A bit quicker though.

 

All three models have trended stronger/more phased through 144 hours, a bit of a diversion afterwards with the GFS shearing out much quicker.

 

Also, judging by that impressively moist boundary layer, certainly severe potential further south (perhaps even nudging into the southern part of this sub-forum depending on the track of the system).

 

I actually think starting a thread in the main forum for this one may be a worthy consideration should this stronger idea become a trend, considering the multiple potential impacts across various regions.

[Hoosier]

00z Euro looks like it might go nw based on what I'm seeing at 144 hours. 

[Ajdos]

Euro is amped up at 150, nice, but I think we might be lacking cold air to the north, at least on this run...

 

EDIT-Tons of moisture, and i'm not sure about the temps, very close....if cold enough, huge snowfall totals possible.. 

 

1-2' snow n/w of Detroit...by 25 miles???. lol..thank god this is far out..

and heavy snows thru Chicago! 

[hm8]

Euro is amped up at 150, nice, but I think we might be lacking cold air to the north, at least on this run...

 

EDIT-Tons of moisture, and i'm not sure about the temps, very close....if cold enough, huge snowfall totals possible.. 

Yup. Low track is beautiful and it's juiced like a super soaker but verbatim the surface freezing line cuts right through Semi

[Thundersnow12]

Sfc low goes from northwest AR to Indy to Buffalo. 992mb over Indy. Chicago looks like a big snowstorm

[Snowstorms]

Nice track on the Euro. Lack of cold air plays a crucial part in this on the Euro but otherwise, a nice developed storm. Loaded with moisture

Chicago and Toronto get pummelled.

[wisconsinwx]

Sfc low goes from northwest AR to Indy to Buffalo. 992mb over Indy. Chicago looks like a big snowstorm

 

Has a lot of potential but as of now, pretty thin area of really good snows.  I'd take that in a heartbeat, though, 6"+ for both Milwaukee and Chicago is good stuff a few days before X-mas.

[AppsRunner]

I don't like where I sit at this point but it should be fun to watch. Euro looked like it left some energy back in the south and probably barely missed being a much stronger storm. 

[Stebo]

So about all that talk of suppression, .

[Hoosier]

Sfc low goes from northwest AR to Indy to Buffalo. 992mb over Indy. Chicago looks like a big snowstorm

 

 

Riding perilously close to mixing I would think (Chi-town).  Not like it really matters though.

[Thundersnow12]

Riding perilously close to mixing I would think (Chi-town). Not like it really matters though.

Yeah looks like it but looks like a foot plus of heavy snow. At least were seeing a better signal for something big. Details with work themselves out with the first amped 18z NAM run.

[Stebo]

Not to take away from the Wintry side of this potential storm, but the Euro is pretty ominous across the Arklatex region of the country at 144 hours out. The flow straight out of the Gulf into a highly sheared warm sector and you throw in large amounts of instability, could be setting up for a potential outbreak down there. Certainly something to keep an eye on as well going forward.

[Stebo]

Locally looking at the Euro maps, I am a bit concerned about a very real ice potential, someone with this system is going to get a whole ton of ice.

[Harry]

Locally looking at the Euro maps, I am a bit concerned about a very real ice potential, someone with this system is going to get a whole ton of ice.

 

Via 850, QPF, and snowfall maps i agree. The model shows around 2 inches total QPF but 6-12 inches of snow ( snowfall map ) while temps through the whole event are below freezing along and north of a Coldwater/Monroe line. Ofcourse some of that could be sleet as well.

[Harry]

As for the euro ensembles they remain basically unchanged from the 12z run. The mean track is slightly further south of the euro heading ene..

[buckeye]

So about all that talk of suppression, .

 

yea that 1028 jalepeno high over N Dakota ain't gonna cut it.   We haven't seen too many storms model stronger and more phased inside of 168 but this looks like a candidate

[Stebo]

yea that 1028 jalepeno high over N Dakota ain't gonna cut it.   We haven't seen too many storms model stronger and more phased inside of 168 but this looks like a candidate

With the -EPO relaxing, you won't see massive cold highs coming down from Canada for a while, which is why I am not surprised the models are coming north, like the 06z GFS did. It was much closer to the Euro's depiction.

[Chicago WX]

A little silly this far out for specifics...but nice enough temp gradient on the 0z Euro.

 

2m temps at 12z 12/22, wide view.

 

 

 

Closer in look, same time as above. Shorts and flip flops in Indy, while it's a cold rain in LAF. 20-30º difference in 60 or so miles. Less than that maybe in places.

 

 

 

Anyways, it'll change several times before we get there. For the better or the worse, who knows.

[buckeye]

With the -EPO relaxing, you won't see massive cold highs coming down from Canada for a while, which is why I am not surprised the models are coming north, like the 06z GFS did. It was much closer to the Euro's depiction.

 

yep and the depiction of the high has gotten weaker and weaker over the last few days of model runs.  This was originally looking like a classic overrunning event but you can't have that without a pressing arctic high.   So now it's just a matter of how phased and wound up that low can become. 

[A-L-E-K]

it's nice to have been active lately otherwise i'd be going nuts tracking the million or so curveballs this storm has in store for us.

[toronto blizzard]

Verbatim 00z EURO is a major ice storm for Toronto.

[Gilbertfly]

DVN.....a little chopped up to hit the main points....

 

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
628 AM CST MON DEC 16 2013


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST MON DEC 16 2013

MOSTLY DRY INTO THURSDAY...THEN BECOMING UNSETTLED WITH INCREASING
RISK OF A MAJOR WINTER STORM NEAR OR OVER AREA THIS WEEKEND.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION ONCE AGAIN GOOD ON
SYNOPTIC SCALE AND WITH KINEMATIC FIELDS. BL RH ISSUES AND SNOW PACK
FEEDBACK AGAIN ARE FAIR TO POOR WITH MOST SOLUTIONS TOO DRY IN BL.
RUN TO RUN VARIANCE AND INTER MODEL CONTINUITY SUPPORTS A 70/30 MIX
OF GEM-NH/HI RES ECMWF AND UKMET WITH GFS. THIS SUPPORTS OUR MUCH
DISCUSSED WEEKEND WINTER EVENT TO PULL FURTHER NORTH AS SUGGESTED IN
PAST 3 DAYS OF AFD/S. EXPECT THE 06Z...GFS RUN TO PULL NORTH IN A
BELATED FASHION. AS DISCUSSED OVER PAST 72 HOURS...THIS TYPE OF
UPPER LOW TENDS TO PULL FURTHER NORTH THAN SOLUTIONS HAVE SHOWN
THE PAST 24-36 HOURS. LARGE SCALE TOOLS OF PW/S...FORCING AND
DURATION SUPPORT THE WEEKEND SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF
4-10+ INCHES OF SNOW IN OR NEAR OUR CWA. AS DISCUSSED PREVIOUS
DAYS...JET MAGNITUDE ON SOLUTIONS ARE EVEN MORE OMINOUS WITH
170-210 KT RIGHT REAR OVER AREA...COUPLED WITH LEFT FRONT OVER
AREA. THIS CLEARLY SHOWS MAJOR MOISTURE PHYSICS AND PHASING ISSUE.
WE CONTINUE WITH INCREASING CONCERNS OF THE RELIABILITY OF ALL
SOLUTIONS.

COMMENT...THE MODEL RUN TO RUN PROBLEMS ARE PART OF THE MODEL
INSTABILITY ISSUES ROUTINELY DISCUSSED. THERE IS A REASON IN THE
"FORECAST FUNNEL" PROCESS WE TALK ABOUT A TOP DOWN LARGE SCALE TO
SMALL EVOLUTION. THIS IS SOLELY DUE TO LATENT HEAT PROCESSES.
REMEMBER HIGH LEVEL JET STREAK PRINCIPLE ARE ALWAYS LESS IMPACTED
AND USING CONCEPTUAL MODELS...WILL AID THE DECISION MAKER. THIS
WEEKEND EVENT WILL BE MUCH BETTER CLARIFIED THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.
DON/T BE SURPRISED OF A NEED TO RAISE WINTER CONCERNS GREATLY.
THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE NOVEMBER SEVERE WEATHER EVENT THAT WAS ALL
OF A SUDDEN "OBVIOUS" ABOUT 60-72 HOURS OUT. ITS ALL RELATED TO
THE THERMODYNAMIC ISSUES WITH THE MODELS (ENTROPY...ENTHALPY...GIBBS
FREE ENERGY MAINLY).

 

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HAVE LOW POPS WHICH APPEAR ARE TOO LOW BY
20-30+ PERCENT OR MORE DUE TO OVER RELIANCE ON 00Z GFS. TEMPERATURES
MAY NEED RAISING 2-5 DEGREES ALSO. THIS IS THE TIME PERIOD THE
WINTER STORM COULD AFFECT THE REGION. INCLINED MAJOR CHANGES WILL
HAPPEN BY DAY SHIFT AS GFS PROBABLY TRENDS WETTER WITH NORTH SHIFT
OF STORM TRACK. WILL MENTION WINTER STORM RISKS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. POSSIBLY THE WEATHER STORY PRODUCT. REMEMBER...ALL
THE OTHER SOLUTIONS ARE FURTHER NORTH WITH SYSTEM IN A MANNER THAT
IS TYPICAL WITH TYPE OF WINTER EVENT.

 

[A-L-E-K]

DVN disco is pretty rambling...system certainly has some of the classic signs of a hard left cutter but there are just too many variables in play right now to get too invested. For the time being, I'd discount any suppressed/weak solutions (IMBY rain is probably a bigger concern than a miss south/east)

[Chicago WX]

Looking more for consistency, or the majority having some kind of storm rather than track details...but the 0z Canadian control run and ensembles are right of the OP run, of those that show something happening. Of course initiation location and what not is key. 0z and 6z GEFS are scattered about, with even some not showing much at all. Anyways for giggles, GGEM ensemble tracks below. 

 

 

[A-L-E-K]

FWIW complaint thread down to 10th place...might be the lowest it gets this season?

[Stebo]

DVN disco is pretty rambling...system certainly has some of the classic signs of a hard left cutter but there are just too many variables in play right now to get too invested. For the time being, I'd discount any suppressed/weak solutions (IMBY rain is probably a bigger concern than a miss south/east)

There is a bit of a limitation to how far northwest it can go. There is still a high dropping in from Canada and a northern stream piece of energy moving across Southern Canada at the time. So just like the over the top suppressed runs being unrealistic, an over the top phased bomb that cuts through Wisconsin would be unrealistic. Honestly what we are seeing from the Euro and the 06z GFS will probably be close to reality unless this thing completely stalls out in the Southwest, which is still possible as well.