buckeye Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 PD II comes to mind when i think of such heavy duty snows/ice with a weaker low passing by with that sort of track. Granted i think it did end up clipping far eastern KY and then transferred to the coast? Ofcourse with that some thought it would go even further south and as well miss those north of a Philly/Columbus line. Yea I remember that. Modeling had us being missed to the south...then inside of 48 hrs there was a dramatic northern shift. But you're right, the amount of snow that put down was not at all relative to the strength of the slp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 The 12Z ECMWF has much of this precip falling when thicknesses are above 5400m. The line goes above Detroit and is very near Chicago in these forecast time frames. That would mean sleet, freezing rain, or rain for Detroit, close call for Chicago. 2013_12_16_12z_ECMWF_144hr.png 2013_12_16_12z_ECMWF_150hr.png The Euro verbatum is snow for Detroit, not freezing rain, sleet, or rain. The 12z Euro is trolling weenies hard for disappointment, but if we are going to talk verbatum, then on December 23rd Detroit will see the deepest snow it has ever seen since records started in the 1870s. Unlike the 1886 or 1974 storms, this time we would start with a snowcover (the Euro has us maxing out at 40F Friday..that is NOT going to fully obliterate an 8-10" snowpack that is laying atop frozen ground). Again, that is talking the Euro verbatum and no, I do not expect it to happen, but its just crazy to see a run like that. http://www.yr.no/place/United_States/Michigan/Detroit_Metropolitan_Wayne_County_Airport/long.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 While we're killing time, I made this map a while back. It shows the max snowstorm of record for various locations. I think 1 or 2 of these may have been broken since I made the map but it gives an idea. There are a lot of gaps but the heaviest swath of snow on the 12z Euro would basically be record breaking for the areas affected. maxsnowmap.png I got Fort Wayne's biggest snowstorm at 18.0" (2/28/1900). The 15.2" kinda sticks out, regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 While we're killing time, I made this map a while back. It shows the max snowstorm of record for various locations. I think 1 or 2 of these may have been broken since I made the map but it gives an idea. There are a lot of gaps but the heaviest swath of snow on the 12z Euro would basically be record breaking for the areas affected. maxsnowmap.png Yeah considering the numbers surrounding here it is gonna be very hard to top that here. Yea I remember that. Modeling had us being missed to the south...then inside of 48 hrs there was a dramatic northern shift. But you're right, the amount of snow that put down was not at all relative to the strength of the slp. I still don't think Cleveland NWS has ever caught up with that one..lol Was not till after 6 inches had fallen ( imby in Knox/Mt Vernon ) before they even began issuing advisories on that.. I believe it was after a foot had fallen that the warnings finally came out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 I got Fort Wayne's biggest snowstorm at 18.0" (2/28/1900). The 15.2" kinda sticks out, regardless. You're probably right. I thought I got the number off IWX's site but it's hard to remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 I got Fort Wayne's biggest snowstorm at 18.0" (2/28/1900). The 15.2" kinda sticks out, regardless. The highest i know of around here was in Coldwater via Blizz of 78 with something like 31" there? Ofcourse i still think the lake helped with that total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 You're probably right. I thought I got the number off IWX's site but it's hard to remember. I recently put together a snowstorm list for Fort Wayne, so it was fresh in my mind. The highest i know of around here was in Coldwater via Blizz of 78 with something like 31" there? Ofcourse i still think the lake helped with that total. Impressive number. Anything 20"+ in this region is, synoptic snows of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Going to need the vortex over Hudson Bay to nudge east at least a little bit or else this is going to be warmish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 gfs rain rain rain and lots of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 A bit colder this run..I think S/Mi gets into some decent snows starting 132hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Cold air trying to seep in after 120. It'll probably start transitioning some of the rain to wintry precip and maybe accums. But not a EUROesque run that's fo sho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 gfs rain rain rain and lots of it Gettin the canoe ready Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 gfs 135hr http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013121700&var=PCPTHKPRS_1000-500mb&hour=135 snowfall 141hr http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013121700&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=141 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Yawn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 I hope this doesn't end up being a nasty ice storm in my area. The February 24, 2007 ice storm is something that I DO NOT want to experience in my life ever again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Cold air trying to seep in after 120. It'll probably start transitioning some of the rain to wintry precip and maybe accums. But not a EUROesque run that's fo sho. The GFS is really quick in moving this storm out of Texas towards the Lakes. With that being said, this system becomes a big rain maker for all of us...lol. Timing is everything. But its still a week out so we'll have a world of possibilities before we get some sort of idea where this will track 3-4 days prior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 At some point it would be nice to see the GFS crush someone even if it's off on placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 I hope this doesn't end up being a nasty ice storm in my area. The February 24, 2007 ice storm is something that I DO NOT want to experience in my life ever again. Don't worry, you've got plenty of runs to go until that becomes your #1 concern, right now you're just in the cool and dry portion of the storm, so worrying about ice at this point is futile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Some mixed precip to start quickly going to snow here. Most of the precip avoids here till the cold comes in.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Have to account for other snowfall between now and the weekend, but you can kinda see what's going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Not sure what happens in between but the 00z GGEM takes the surface low from around Texarkana at 120 hours to Worcester at 144 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Sorta OT, but it reminds me. You all have to read through the GHD threads (still located in the C/W forum)...starting at the beginning. Models being models and stuff. Not saying this is a repeat or anything, but we were talking that one up pretty early. Lots of peaks and valleys leading up to the final solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 At some point it would be nice to see the GFS crush someone even if it's off on placement. It has the epic QPF but ala that zone is all in the warm sector.. But yeah i too am interested to see the same. Model has had a few updates since we have had this sort of system in this region during the winter so yeah it will be interesting to see how it handles this. Hopefully no planned euro updates till after the winter.. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Not sure what happens in between but the 00z GGEM takes the surface low from around Texarkana at 120 hours to Worcester at 144 hours. last nights runs took it into WI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 last nights runs took it into WI It was terrible, was actually west of the GFS at 120 hours, but somehow ends up relatively suppressed. The high takes over. Oh well, hopefully a burp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Not sure what happens in between but the 00z GGEM takes the surface low from around Texarkana at 120 hours to Worcester at 144 hours. I don't think it's anything special. The 144 hour map looks kinda trashy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Will be interesting to see if the euro and it's ensemble members hold on that same track. For those wondering this track the GFS has is the exact track the euro ensemble mean has had for a few days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Not sure what happens in between but the 00z GGEM takes the surface low from around Texarkana at 120 hours to Worcester at 144 hours. oh my. Sounds delightful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 I don't think it's anything special. The 144 hour map looks kinda trashy. Just saw 132 hours...it has the surface low near the OH/PA border. Lots of precip but probably not a ton of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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