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December 13-14th Winter Storm Part 2


Chicago Storm

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EURO still looks nice for my old home.

Yeah it spits out the same it had in previous runs (5-8"). With the cold temperatures, ratios should be high. LES is still a bit iffy on this. Could go either way depending on the winds.

Its too bad you"ll be missing this one.. First snowstorm prior to Christmas since 2008 LOL..

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Yeah it spits out the same it had in previous runs (5-8"). With the cold temperatures, ratios should be high. LES is still a bit iffy on this. Could go either way depending on the winds.

Its too bad you"ll be missing this one.. First snowstorm prior to Christmas since 2008 LOL..

 

RAP is also now indicating the LES band getting into the southern half of Toronto proper. It'll be interesting to see how this unfolds. I have my doubts about how far north the LES gets. This is based on the placement of the surface low and its effect on wind direction and also that the 4km NAM has done quite well with easterly flow events in the past and it hasn't budged on its more southerly solution.

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RAP is also now indicating the LES band getting into the southern half of Toronto proper. It'll be interesting to see how this unfolds. I have my doubts about how far north the LES gets. This is based on the placement of the surface low and its effect on wind direction and also that the 4km NAM has done quite well with easterly flow events in the past and it hasn't budged on its more southerly solution.

Yes, going to have to see how the day unfolds tomorrow. Euro remains bullish on its LES idea with little change from the 12z.

Have you determined which of the shorter range models has better accuracy of late and in general?

At this point in time, 10-15cm is a good call for the GTA. Would not surprise me if some regions get more (15-20cm) as recent models are more robust.

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Two reports close to my location

 

1245 AM SNOW LAKE VILLAGE 41.13N 87.43W
12/14/2013 E3.5 INCH NEWTON IN PUBLIC

1245 AM SNOW WHEATFIELD 41.19N 87.05W
12/14/2013 E3.0 INCH JASPER IN AMATEUR RADIO

 

Looks about right. Shouldn't have much of a problem getting 1-3" more, so the 4-6" range looks pretty good. 

 

I 65 north of Lafayette is a mess. There were at least 2 semi's jackknifed between mile marker 205 and 215 in Jasper County. Traffic was at a stand still for an unknown number of miles. Spent an hour just sitting there. 

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