Typhoon Tip Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Unusual timing a needle-threader, transporting large QPF/pwat into an arctic air mass. Brief period of flow relaxation combined with a PNA jolt throws a monkey wrench into an otherwise cold dry pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Not sure I have seen a post like that to start a thread...what the... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 GFS H7 showing ugly dry slut for CT/RI, no? Help me out if I'm off here....would be better to close off H7 right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 It'll gain momentum slowly as part I becomes old and bloated. it was bloated the moment tonights nam initialized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 GFS H7 showing ugly dry slut for CT/RI, no? Help me out if I'm off here....would be better to close off H7 right? yeah...but its after all the initial snows. we cash in on the waa thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 How about WAA Hammer? Yes, please, anything but the word thump. I feel like one met dropped it on this board now all of you feed off it. It's annoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Still a decent amount of spread on the GEFS judging by the shape and size of the MSLP contour near the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Still a decent amount of spread on the GEFS judging by the shape and size of the MSLP contour near the BM.Track between cape and Ack. Lock it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 yeah...but its after all the initial snows. we cash in on the waa thump. Nice....thanks...good to know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Man that thumps gonna be real.. Over and out...7am meeting,,,,,. Hope I can manage it...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 GFS H7 showing ugly dry slut for CT/RI, no? Help me out if I'm off here....would be better to close off H7 right? Right...which is why going 12"+ here is dangerous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 If the GFS verifies areas N and W are gonna get slammed with CCB snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Just a suggestion. If we aren't sticking to straight 50 pages end threads after a full model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 If the GFS verifies areas N and W are gonna get slammed with CCB snow. N and W of Boston you mean, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 N and W of Boston you mean, right? Yeah sorry I lack specifics on 90% of my posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 How well do CIPS analogs do overall? Obviously not perfect, but is there an overall sense in how they do? BOX mentioned them in their AFD yesterday, and 12/16/07 was a "thumping" across most of New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 How well do CIPS analogs do overall? Obviously not perfect, but is there an overall sense in how they do? BOX mentioned them in their AFD yesterday, and 12/16/07 was a "thumping" across most of New England. Well if we get this storm and that storm on the 23rd the CIPS suck azz then imo. SE ridge, +NAO my azz. That's why teleconnections are overrated. I feel like people on this forum view them as gospel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I hate how the gfs is taking the northern sw on the back end of the rotating pinwheel and slamming it into the southern stream...phasing it around the eastern lakes or just north of it, at h5. Wish that thing would slow down, sne doesnt want tomorrows runs to be full blown early phases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 It just takes one or two storms to skew totals when compared to analogs. Teleconnections are cool and all but definitely overrated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Well if we get this storm and that storm on the 23rd the CIPS suck azz then imo. SE ridge, +NAO my azz. That's why teleconnections are overrated. I feel like people on this forum view them as gospel. Yeah teleconnections are good for storm/pattern recognition I suppose...I'm just curious as to those CIPS verification scores. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Glad to see someone else burning the candle....need to keep the dialogue going. Thump you very much. Might as well I guess...I'm a night owl anyway...1:15 or so for the King? Looking forward to this....would set up a nice pre Xmas pack that I haven't had in a while....yes I have a pack fetish....2010-11 was epic....had 32" at the height of it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 How well do CIPS analogs do overall? Obviously not perfect, but is there an overall sense in how they do? BOX mentioned them in their AFD yesterday, and 12/16/07 was a "thumping" across most of New England. They are as good as the model output. If the model guidance is in high agreement, then they tend to perform pretty well...esp at close lead times. But if you are choosing a list of CIPS analogs based on the 72 hour GFS and the GFS is out to lunch, then your list will be based off that "out to lunch" model data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Well if we get this storm and that storm on the 23rd the CIPS suck azz then imo. SE ridge, +NAO my azz. That's why teleconnections are overrated. I feel like people on this forum view them as gospel. Well, seemed to me as though folks kept stressing how the Pacific can easily override the Atlantic, especially if the Aleutian ridge remained intact. I think you misunderstood the predominate sentiment on this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Might as well I guess...I'm a night owl anyway...1:15 or so for the King? Looking forward to this....would set up a nice pre Xmas pack that I haven't had in a while....yes I have a pack fetish....2010-11 was epic....had 32" at the height of it.... 12:45 But probabaly by 1ish we should be out to what we need to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 GEFS are over the benchmark. First time in a while they are southeast of the OP run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Thumping off to bed. Hoping we get a thump on the overnight posts. Everything (well almost) on track. Get the weenie flags unfurled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 GEFS are over the benchmark. First time in a while they are southeast of the OP run. Seems like models are settling in on a final track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Well if we get this storm and that storm on the 23rd the CIPS suck azz then imo. SE ridge, +NAO my azz. That's why teleconnections are overrated. I feel like people on this forum view them as gospel. I actually think a lot of us on here have used the teleconnections very well to predict this pattern....+NAO/-EPO is a classic gradient pattern with very cold north and warm south with the SE ridge tendency. That is exactly what we are getting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Well if we get this storm and that storm on the 23rd the CIPS suck azz then imo. SE ridge, +NAO my azz. That's why teleconnections are overrated. I feel like people on this forum view them as gospel. I'm with you on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 GEFS are over the benchmark. First time in a while they are southeast of the OP run. looked like the went over ack to me or close to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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