Chicago Storm Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Why not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I'm surprised it's taken this long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 if it ain't broke, don't fix it....joe is off to a good start for system thread starter this season.... decent sampling in the 00Z 12DEC range as far as I can see...although some bits and pieces could be sampled prior to that.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 ^Hot hand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I approve of Joey starting threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 ^Hot hand used to be you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 bastardi is not on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 bastardi is not on board yeah...he is ignoring the SE ridge...a cutter/transfer seems to fit better IMO pretty nifty set up.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 yeah...he is ignoring the SE ridge...a cutter/transfer seems to fit better IMO I'm mostly joking, he's a weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I thought the disjointed/suppressed look of earlier runs on both the GFS and the EURO fit the pattern pretty nicely. It's been the MO around these parts the last 5-6 weeks. I'd be dumbfounded if this ends up being a completely phased western Lakes cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I thought the disjointed/suppressed look of earlier runs on both the GFS and the EURO fit the pattern pretty nicely. It's been the MO around these parts the last 5-6 weeks. I'd be dumbfounded if this ends up being a completely phased western Lakes cutter. The latest runs are now showing a bit more ridging over B.C with should help the flow amplify a bit but not to the point that this thing tracks to Duluth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I'm mostly joking, he's a weenie I hear ya brother...he's real smart, but biases can get in the way frequently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I think this event has the potential to be a good snow for a lot of the subforum. There is only one main concern I have that I'd like to see worked out in future model runs: If you look at the 126 hour time frame at 850, you'll see that the 850 low is just to the south of the region, which probably accounts for the spike in temperatures just before the onset of precip. It's good where it is right now, but any further north and we could be dealing with a warm tongue in the upper layers = sleet But these types of events make for excellent tracking, so I'm excited about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Yeah the spot the storm is in is good for some synoptic snow here, but also LES. Looks to start Saturday, so 5 days out. Will feel better if models hold steady through Wednesday AM. EURO brings the 4" line from here back to Hannibal, MO. @ 10:1 Heaviest axis from Quincy to Berrien County to over where SnowFreak is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 The latest runs are now showing a bit more ridging over B.C with should help the flow amplify a bit but not to the point that this thing tracks to Duluth. If you look at the H5 EURO at 120, we could actually afford a bit more interaction between the streams without things getting warm. Famous last words but I'm not really worried about rain with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Model consensus is pretty much perfect for LAF, which is kinda scary 5 days out. Wouldn't have to come much farther north before ptype questions would enter the picture but cautiously optimistic right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 If you look at the H5 EURO at 120, we could actually afford a bit more interaction between the streams without things getting warm. Famous last words but I'm not really worried about rain with this.Are you back in Toronto for the holidays? Yao think rain isn't likely but makes you wonder if the GFS is on to something being the farthest north model. It actually looks like the 00z eURo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I think this event has the potential to be a good snow for a lot of the subforum. There is only one main concern I have that I'd like to see worked out in future model runs: If you look at the 126 hour time frame at 850, you'll see that the 850 low is just to the south of the region, which probably accounts for the spike in temperatures just before the onset of precip. It's good where it is right now, but any further north and we could be dealing with a warm tongue in the upper layers = sleet But these types of events make for excellent tracking, so I'm excited about that. I was taking a look at this. The ECMWF and GFS have a 850mb low around Springfield IL, surface low in TN/KY at 120 hours. I suppose there could be some heavy snow around I-80. The ECMWF keeps those 850mb temps around 0C for I-70, Indianapolis area, so that would mean rain for people in the river valleys (Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley.) 500mb doesn't look very deep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Are you back in Toronto for the holidays? Yao think rain isn't likely but makes you wonder if the GFS is on to something being the farthest north model. It actually looks like the 00z eURo Yes, I'll be back on the 20th. So I'll miss this one. But returning to snowcover would enhance my Christmas spirit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 12Z GFS December dream run for YYZ, 12"+ verbatim. Nowhere to go but down... we'll see where the models trend. Obviously too early to talk accums but track looks good for YYZ with coastal transfer strengthening the system and feeding moisture into the storm as it would affect the province. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 This has classic mutliprecip type major winter storm for the STL metro. I expect 2-5" snow with either rain, ZR, or Sleet. If we get really lucky it will be mostly or all snow/sleet. This will be our third winter storm. If you count the over-runner as one. Expecting 2"+ tonight so yeah. Lucky us down here so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 12Z GFS December dream run for YYZ, 12"+ verbatim. Nowhere to go but down... we'll see where the models trend. Obviously too early to talk accums but track looks good for YYZ with coastal transfer strengthening the system and feeding moisture into the storm as it would affect the province. I asked Santa for a two footer for Christmas, so maybe not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I asked Santa for a two footer for Christmas, so maybe not. Your one hilarious guy Canuck Your back on the 20th, no? A few things on this. The HP up across Northern Ontario should help enforce more CAD thus keeping temperatures below freezing across the Great Lakes area. The strength and positioning is key with this HP as well, since it will determine how much cold air is available and snow ratios. Secondly, the phasing. Models show a wave of moisture from the Gulf phasing with the clipper coming from the west. When and where they phase is the key point. If the phasing occurs early like the 12z GFS or a bit later like the GGEM; will determine how much snow falls. Very interesting set-up. The ridge out west like TOBLIZZARD mentioned could be a key element for us. And I'd expect another cold outbreak and a clipper following this. Looks similar to the Jan 99 storm? No? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Your one hilarious guy Canuck Your back on the 20th, no? A few things on this. The HP up across Northern Ontario should help enforce more CAD thus keeping temperatures below freezing across the Great Lakes area. The strength and positioning is key with this HP as well, since it will determine how much cold air is available and snow ratios. Secondly, the phasing. Models show a wave of moisture from the Gulf phasing with the clipper coming from the west. When and where they phase is the key point. If the phasing occurs early like the 12z GFS or a bit later like the GGEM; will determine how much snow falls. Very interesting set-up. The ridge out west like TOBLIZZARD mentioned could be a key element for us. And I'd expect another cold outbreak and a clipper following this. Looks similar to the Jan 99 storm? No? Might wanna go back and look at the maps from 1999. The upper level setup as depicted now looks nothing like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 18z gfs only if..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chances14 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Lock it in lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Lock it in lol Some of that is the clipper keep in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I would not be at all opposed if anyone wanted to post the raw numbers off the Euro for VPZ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Time to haul the equipment onsite. I have a feeling the next two weeks will be very good to Jonger and myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 As modeled, these are my favorite non-monster bomb events...being on the northern fringe with a prolonged NE flow has a good track record around these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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