Typhoon Tip Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 For a few cycles now, and across multiple operational guidance types, there have been systems flagged between the 15th and 20th of the month. This is a very early lead and thus is subject to change (duh), but the turmoil in the various operational runs as to which impulse(s) in the spatial-temporal maelstrom could be capable of bringing the winter goods, can at least in part be supported by the teleconnectors leading up through the ides of the month. It's not overwhelming as a signal, first off, but it is there nonetheless. The PNA is currently being registered near -1.5SD at the CPC. This is actually understandable considering there is positive correlation coefficient wrt to the EPO, which as we know has been predominantly negative in recent weeks (CDC). The EPO is neutralizing according to the CDC, even going modestly positive by the end of week 2. What is interesting is that in that time the PNA begins to rise. It is more impressive at the CPC, which determines the tele numbers based on mid level geoptential heights; where as the CDC utilizes low-level wind flux (anomalies). Technique aside, you have a moderating EPO and an elevating PNA, and that is a longer term statistically supported concurrence of events. I can't type small words... not sure why... But, what all that gobble-gook means is that the general circulation may undergo some changes based on changes in the modes of the various mass fields. The (albeit transient) "bulging" of heights over the west heading into next weekend, may be real. That would of course impose downstream interests during a continental cold anomaly on-going at that time. Sure enough, you see the operational GGEM with a coastal; you see the Euro with a kind of PD type system (followed by a clipper that detonates along the NE coast), and the GFS with a general mess but storminess nonetheless. By the way, there is so much cold up in Canada, that should a relaxed EPO be met with a rising PNA, I do not believe the PNA has to be substantially positive to incur wrath. Smaller variations in the PNA can have bigger results when thermal gradients are intense. Also, I am noticing a tendency to lower the extremeness of the "gradient pattern" we have been witnessing as this week progresses. That does allow for impulse-centric mechanics to more effectively operate cyclogenesis. As an ending thought, the 18z GFS/NAM agree on yet another ANA swath Tuesday night... mustn't forget the little critters that bite in the meantime (should they ....) John Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Nice write up How come you signed your name at the end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Good stuff tip, we'll be watching of course. And isn't this the system sniped by Gulf Stream? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I want to bump this as it's now showing on a lot of guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Loving the back-to-back whammy on the 0z Euro at 144 and 192. Brutal cold with the 192 storm (I think that's the clipper grenade), could get some lovely snow ratios. Fingers crossed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 12/9 12z GFS has a sizable system. Verbatim, mostly liquid for SNE, mostly frozen for C/NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 GFS coming on board this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 GFS coming on board this weekend. Lol....let's hope for a not verbatim solution but yes it has a sizeable event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Ggem nice snowy hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 12/9 12z GFS has a sizable system. Verbatim, mostly liquid for SNE, mostly frozen for C/NNE. GGEM is a multi-wave deal. Lead wave looks wintry, follow-up wave looks like a mixed bag to start with maybe a changeover to end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 9, 2013 Author Share Posted December 9, 2013 Loving the back-to-back whammy on the 0z Euro at 144 and 192. Brutal cold with the 192 storm (I think that's the clipper grenade), could get some lovely snow ratios. Fingers crossed! It is more likely that one of those becomes the dominant player... It is actually a more proficiently phased version of the 12z guidance from yesterday. But yeah ...overall, this is the familiar layout in my mind to what the tele's taste like heading into that period of time. We notice the western heights rise? And with in situ cold and available, the rather abrupt immediate downstream result of OV trough dig thus has ample baroclinicity in the ambient ... p-type/details are impossible at this range, though the GFS does look a little bit pushy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 9, 2013 Author Share Posted December 9, 2013 Ggem nice snowy hit Not that it matters talking about a GGEM solution 120 hours out .. .but that lead wave is clearly born convectively along the intense baroclinic axis down the EC, and therefore may just as well be dubious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Nice look to the 12z GFS... hopefully it doesn't cut and we can thread the needle. GGEM looks very similar if you get rid of that first wave. Looks like all the energy is back in the second wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Lol....let's hope for a not verbatim solution but yes it has a sizeable event. Why not? That's a beautiful verbatim solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Looks like a SWFE on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 9, 2013 Author Share Posted December 9, 2013 Looks like a SWFE on the euro. Yes ... unfortunately, none of this really speaks to p-type or the satisfaction of winter enthusiasts therein ... Having said that, an event of any kind still supported and seeing the PNA continuing to rise in pulses at both CDC/CPC is statistically correlated to eastern N/A activity as we know. If it is any consolation for eye-sore products ... it is D6 and the Euro's latching onto this event and having it go west is a model bias that could easily correct SE in time. But ... having a front end snow thump sort of set up isn't all that bad, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Yes ... unfortunately, none of this really speaks to p-type or the satisfaction of winter enthusiasts therein ... Having said that, an event of any kind still supported and seeing the PNA continuing to rise in pulses at both CDC/CPC is statistically correlated to eastern N/A activity as we know. If it is any consolation for eye-sore products ... it is D6 and the Euro's latching onto this event and having it go west is a model bias that could easily correct SE in time. But ... having a front end snow thump sort of set up isn't all that bad, either. Yeah it has a pretty decent front end thump...of course, exact details are meaningless at 126-132 hours out...but its the type of system that would probably be favored in this pattern given the SE ridge that doesn't give in easily. Also cannot rule out an uglier cutter either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 9, 2013 Author Share Posted December 9, 2013 Yeah it has a pretty decent front end thump...of course, exact details are meaningless at 126-132 hours out...but its the type of system that would probably be favored in this pattern given the SE ridge that doesn't give in easily. Also cannot rule out an uglier cutter either. I actually think the SE ridge would tend to dismantle as the week progresses and the gradual shift in the PNA supports more of a +PNAP over mid-latitudes of N/A. How much? Heh. We'll see... Fwiw folks, NCEP is onto the pattern change and the eastern cyclogenesis threat. I think the "progressive" character to the flow will dictate farther E tracks: EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1100 AM EST MON DEC 09 2013 VALID 12Z THU DEC 12 2013 - 12Z MON DEC 16 2013 ...ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN OVERVIEW...GUIDANCE ASSESSMENT...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS... THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ADVERTISE A TRANSITIONAL AND SPLIT WEATHER PATTERN GENERALLY OVER NORTH AMERICA. THIS PATTERN IS HIGHLIGHTED BY A DEEP TROUGHS/LOWS OVER THE GULF OF AK...A SERIES OF HARDER TO TIME AND MORE PROGRESSIVE AND WINTER WEATHER FOCUSING SYSTEMS/LOWS BOTH DIGGING DOWNSTREAM WITHIN A NRN STREAM INTO/ACROSS THE US NRN TIER STATES AND WITHIN AN EJECTING SRN STREAM ACROSS THE US SRN TIER STATES...EVENTUALLY LEADING TO SERN AND NERN COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS. THE BIGGEST WINTER THREAT SEEMS TO BE ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF OVERALL COMPLEX SWATHS OF QPF EXPANDING EMPHASIS STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ENEWD TO NEW ENG DAYS FRI-MON. MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM APPROACH OF PACIFIC ENERGIES LATER IN THE PERIOD MAY ALSO INCREASE EMPHASIS OVER THE NWRN STATES BY THEN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I actually think the SE ridge would tend to dismantle as the week progresses and the gradual shift in the PNA supports more of a +PNAP over mid-latitudes of N/A. How much? Heh. We'll see... Fwiw folks, NCEP is onto the pattern change and the eastern cyclogenesis threat. I think the "progressive" character to the flow will dictate farther E tracks: EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1100 AM EST MON DEC 09 2013 VALID 12Z THU DEC 12 2013 - 12Z MON DEC 16 2013 ...ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN OVERVIEW...GUIDANCE ASSESSMENT...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS... THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ADVERTISE A TRANSITIONAL AND SPLIT WEATHER PATTERN GENERALLY OVER NORTH AMERICA. THIS PATTERN IS HIGHLIGHTED BY A DEEP TROUGHS/LOWS OVER THE GULF OF AK...A SERIES OF HARDER TO TIME AND MORE PROGRESSIVE AND WINTER WEATHER FOCUSING SYSTEMS/LOWS BOTH DIGGING DOWNSTREAM WITHIN A NRN STREAM INTO/ACROSS THE US NRN TIER STATES AND WITHIN AN EJECTING SRN STREAM ACROSS THE US SRN TIER STATES...EVENTUALLY LEADING TO SERN AND NERN COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS. THE BIGGEST WINTER THREAT SEEMS TO BE ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF OVERALL COMPLEX SWATHS OF QPF EXPANDING EMPHASIS STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ENEWD TO NEW ENG DAYS FRI-MON. MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM APPROACH OF PACIFIC ENERGIES LATER IN THE PERIOD MAY ALSO INCREASE EMPHASIS OVER THE NWRN STATES BY THEN. I do agree the SE ridge is getting fought by the rising PNA in that time, but it is still pretty stout with the strong +NAO pattern. Maybe the PNA is enough to push this east into sort of a hybrid Miller B/SWFE. Often a snowy a look for us, but that type of evolution is probably abit too complicated to talk about still 5 days away. The +PNA may help in lowering the chances ofa huge lakes cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 9, 2013 Author Share Posted December 9, 2013 Ukie likes the idea ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Wintry appeal on the Euro Ens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Wintry appeal on the Euro Ens. Pls tell Shabbs..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 9, 2013 Author Share Posted December 9, 2013 Wintry appeal on the Euro Ens. That's interesting to see that subtle damming signaled ... although I am not sure what the Euro ens do for granularity at this range, typically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 9, 2013 Author Share Posted December 9, 2013 Interesting, ... it appears the EPO rise was stunted per last nights computations. In fact, a little downward movement in the index has replaced that rise. Heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 That's interesting to see that subtle damming signaled ... although I am not sure what the Euro ens do for granularity at this range, typically.It's pretty impressive for a 132hr mean. Mean QPF is warning criteria for the interior although i haven't seen the individual members to see how many cut yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 It's pretty impressive for a 132hr mean. Mean QPF is warning criteria for the interior although i haven't seen the individual members to see how many cut yet. It looks like very few members are actual cutters from what I can see. The members are clustered pretty closely for a 132 hour prog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 It looks like very few members are actual cutters from what I can see. The members are clustered pretty closely for a 132 hour prog. Yeah - that's an impressive mean - looks like good agreement for a 132hr mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Yeah it has a pretty decent front end thump...of course, exact details are meaningless at 126-132 hours out...but its the type of system that would probably be favored in this pattern given the SE ridge that doesn't give in easily. Also cannot rule out an uglier cutter either. I'd take a net gain and run at this time of year....looks beautiful tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 It looks like very few members are actual cutters from what I can see. The members are clustered pretty closely for a 132 hour prog. Looks like most of them are actually slightly colder than the op @850 on the spaghetti plots. Pretty good cluster like you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I like the 18z gfs. Nice cold front precedes low with fresh cold high pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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