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December Banter Thread 2


H2O

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we can stop looking after the 18z GFS

 

****18Z NAM SHIFTS BACK EAST, FOLLOWS SUIT WITH THE CMC/GFS ON PUSHING ICE EAST OF I95. BRINGS IN MUCH COLDER AIR, AND SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASES ICE ACCUMILATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL/WESTERN VA, AND EVEN IN NOVA, DUMPS 4-8IN POSSIBLY MORE ACROSS FAR EXTREME NOVA IN AND AROUND DC AND POINTS WEST, THAN DROPS A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF ICE ACROSS NOVA, INCLUDING FREDERICKSBURG OVER TO CHARLETTESVILLE. DOWN ACROSS VA, FROM RIC/TRICITIES, WEST TO EMPORIA AND FARMVILLE, OVER TO DANVILLE AND WYTHEVILLE, UP TO BLACKSBURG/ROANOKE, OVER TO LYNCHBURG AND UP TO WINCHESTER..............HISTORIC ICE STORM, ICE ACCUMILATIONS WILL TOP .50 AND LIKELY EXCEED .75 ACROSS THIS REGION. 1-3IN OF SNOW AT THE ONSET IS POSSIBLE. EASTERN VA TO HAMPTON ROADS COULD NOW GET A SIGNIFICANT COATING, .10-.25 BEFORE A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN. STORM IS STILL SHOWN TO LAST 24-26HOURS WITH NO TRANSITION TO RAIN UNTIL LATE MONDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON, AS THE STORM EXITS, MEANING DURING THE DURATION OF THIS STORM CENTRAL/WESTERN/NORTHERN VA WILL STAY BELOW FREEZING, POSSIBLY IN THE UPPER 20'S. ALL IN ALL, IF THE 18Z GFS VERIFIES, I THINK WE CAN STOP LOOKING AT MODELS AND WE ALL KNOW WHATS COMING****
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we can stop looking after the 18z GFS

 

****18Z NAM SHIFTS BACK EAST, FOLLOWS SUIT WITH THE CMC/GFS ON PUSHING ICE EAST OF I95. BRINGS IN MUCH COLDER AIR, AND SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASES ICE ACCUMILATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL/WESTERN VA, AND EVEN IN NOVA, DUMPS 4-8IN POSSIBLY MORE ACROSS FAR EXTREME NOVA IN AND AROUND DC AND POINTS WEST, THAN DROPS A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF ICE ACROSS NOVA, INCLUDING FREDERICKSBURG OVER TO CHARLETTESVILLE. DOWN ACROSS VA, FROM RIC/TRICITIES, WEST TO EMPORIA AND FARMVILLE, OVER TO DANVILLE AND WYTHEVILLE, UP TO BLACKSBURG/ROANOKE, OVER TO LYNCHBURG AND UP TO WINCHESTER..............HISTORIC ICE STORM, ICE ACCUMILATIONS WILL TOP .50 AND LIKELY EXCEED .75 ACROSS THIS REGION. 1-3IN OF SNOW AT THE ONSET IS POSSIBLE. EASTERN VA TO HAMPTON ROADS COULD NOW GET A SIGNIFICANT COATING, .10-.25 BEFORE A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN. STORM IS STILL SHOWN TO LAST 24-26HOURS WITH NO TRANSITION TO RAIN UNTIL LATE MONDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON, AS THE STORM EXITS, MEANING DURING THE DURATION OF THIS STORM CENTRAL/WESTERN/NORTHERN VA WILL STAY BELOW FREEZING, POSSIBLY IN THE UPPER 20'S. ALL IN ALL, IF THE 18Z GFS VERIFIES, I THINK WE CAN STOP LOOKING AT MODELS AND WE ALL KNOW WHATS COMING****

 

that's the first thing I've ever read from this guy, though I know many have mentioned his name on here

one thing is for certain, he won the same essay contest DT won

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MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

430 PM EST FRI DEC 06 2013

VALID DEC 06/1200 UTC THRU DEC 10/0000 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR

INGEST...

12/18Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

ALEET. ECMWF/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS.  

CYBER ATTACK DETECTED

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

PREFERENCE: INTERCONTINENTAL DATA COMPROMISE

CONFIDENCE: HIGH

ECMWF HAS CONFIRMED DATA COMPROMISE AND REPROGRAMMING ERROR. 12Z EURO MODEL ALGORITHMIC PARAMETERS EXTRACTED AND EXCHANGED FOR 18Z GFS ALGORITHMIC PARAMETERS. 18Z GFS HAS INITIALIZED USING ECMWF PARAMETERS. EVENING  FORECASTS THEREFORE SHOULD USE PREFERRED 18z GFS OUTPUT. SORRY WEENIES. WOODY!

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D to the T first call for snow only -- https://scontent-a-iad.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-prn2/q71/s720x720/1456066_615911031789492_1140099096_n.jpg

 

For ice -- https://scontent-a-iad.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash3/q74/s720x720/1489289_615911148456147_1542717919_n.jpg

 

Not sure if it goes here or in the main thread

 

Enjoy your 1.5" of ice leesburg

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If that verified to the max with 4-8" of snow with over an inch of ice I might change my name to winterwxhtr

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