Ji Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 tried to come up with something funny....but whatever...this isnt a comedy club Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 tried to come up with something funny....but whatever...this isnt a comedy club you've proved that convincingly over the years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 plz keep banter to an extreme minimum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Re: the comments on the upcoming NAM upgrade...hopefully to go in sometime this spring: North American Mesoscale (NAM) System Use of hybrid-variational-ensemble GSI analysis with global EnKF; modified gravity-wave drag/mountain blocking; new version of BMJ convection with less convective triggering; replace GFDL radiation with RRTM, new version of microphysics (Ferrier-Aligo); explicit convection in all NAM nests except Alaska Spring/Summer 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 DC soundings from 12z GFS changeover around 20z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Seems the consensus is becoming more clear for the front end "finger". Somewhere in the neighborhood of .25 - .30 give or take. Models seem unified in painting the stripe where most of us live. It's pretty narrow and that will be tough on forecasters. I have a hunch it ends up a bit further north than current runs. Pretty decent setup for some ice I-95 and east and seems likely that someone to the west will get .25 or maybe more. Hopefully a drying trend on the first wave doesn't happen. I'm sure most of us would be ok with it as modeled for right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Re: the comments on the upcoming NAM upgrade...hopefully to go in sometime this spring: North American Mesoscale (NAM) System Use of hybrid-variational-ensemble GSI analysis with global EnKF; modified gravity-wave drag/mountain blocking; new version of BMJ convection with less convective triggering; replace GFDL radiation with RRTM, new version of microphysics (Ferrier-Aligo); explicit convection in all NAM nests except Alaska Spring/Summer 2014 Thanks for the update. Appreciate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 GGEM showing more front end snow then previous runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 It would look like anything from 20z or so to around 06z is sleet and freezing rain peeking at the soundings for DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 GGEM showing more front end snow then previous runs... Its also earlier than the GFS and NAM... snow breaks out in N VA by 8 am, which is 3-4 hrs earlier than the GFS/NAM. GGEM shows about 6 hrs of snow for DCA It also moves to sleet around the same time as the GFS... around 20z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Its also earlier than the GFS and NAM... snow breaks out in N VA by 8 am, which is 3-4 hrs earlier than the GFS/NAM Yeah, noticed that too... nice 'finger' of mod snow thru central MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 The NAM can be very useful for specific things...picking up on meso scale features the globals can't but it is not very useful for synoptic scale features. Ironically the ONLY time I can ever remember it being right against all other guidance was once in 2008, about 36 hours before an event all the globals showed our area getting a nice 3-5" snowfall from a trailing coastal wave, and the NAM was OTS.... For some reason its never right when its showing snow and all the others are not...but the one time everything under the sun has snow and the NAM does not...thats when its right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Its also earlier than the GFS and NAM... snow breaks out in N VA by 8 am, which is 3-4 hrs earlier than the GFS/NAM. GGEM shows about 6 hrs of snow for DCA It also moves to sleet around the same time as the GFS... around 20z GGEM has the two wave idea. After the snow from 13z to 19z... mainly sleet with a lil bit of freezing rain till around 10pm. Then there is a lull in precip from around 11pm till 2am (FZDZ?)... then we return to the freezing rain till precip shuts off again around 8am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 This is a crazy storm. The model variances are pretty cool to watch. I'm excited about what we might see in the end. Model variance seems pretty minor overall and has for a few days now. 9.9/10 storms are "tricky" and "very uncertain" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 GGEM has the two wave idea. After the snow from 13z to 19z... mainly sleet with a lil bit of freezing rain till around 10pm. Then there is a lull in precip from around 11pm till 2am (FZDZ?)... then we return to the freezing rain till precip shuts off again around 8am Pretty dryish. GGEM been leading the way on drier storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 RGEM/GGEM gives mostly everyone north of I-70 the shaft on the first wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Yeah, models have been good overall. This is just the sort of storm where .15" of precip and 1 degree at the surface can spell the difference between major impact and no big deal. These global models can't be expected to sort this stuff out at any range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Canadian looks good unless you are in the sticks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Pretty dryish. GGEM been leading the way on drier storm. It has a reinforcing shot of freezing rain after that image you show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Model variance seems pretty minor overall and has for a few days now. 9.9/10 storms are "tricky" and "very uncertain" here. Models have gone back an forth with the dry vs wet for about three days. Yesterday I didn't see this idea of wet, lull, wet. At least not as pronounced as it seems now. They've been pretty steady on the cold, but the timing, extent, and amount of precip seems far from settled to me. If the forecast is for cold with some winter precip on Sunday then yeah, they've been steady. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Pretty dryish. GGEM been leading the way on drier storm. And if you continue... the freezing rain returns... there is a 3-4 lull during the time period you posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 The NAM for MRB is UGLY! FWIW. .9 ZR: 131208/1600Z 52 09004KT 26.7F SNOW 15:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.025 15:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03 100| 0| 0131208/1700Z 53 09003KT 26.7F SNOW 11:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.069 12:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09 100| 0| 0131208/1800Z 54 10004KT 26.9F SNOW 4:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.054 9:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.15 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---131208/1900Z 55 10005KT 27.8F SNOW 7:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.027 9:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.17 100| 0| 0131208/2000Z 56 11007KT 28.1F SNOW 8:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.022 9:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.20 100| 0| 0131208/2100Z 57 11006KT 28.1F SNOW 11:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.038 9:1| 2.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.23 100| 0| 0131208/2200Z 58 12007KT 27.6F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.05|| 0.052 9:1| 2.2|| 0.00|| 0.05|| 0.29 0| 0|100131208/2300Z 59 11008KT 27.6F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.05|| 0.043 9:1| 2.2|| 0.00|| 0.10|| 0.33 0| 0|100131209/0000Z 60 12007KT 27.8F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.03|| 0.032 9:1| 2.2|| 0.00|| 0.13|| 0.36 0| 0|100----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---131209/0100Z 61 12007KT 27.9F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.03|| 0.029 9:1| 2.2|| 0.00|| 0.16|| 0.39 0| 0|100131209/0200Z 62 12007KT 27.8F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.006 9:1| 2.2|| 0.00|| 0.17|| 0.40 0| 0|100131209/0300Z 63 13007KT 28.8F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.03|| 0.031 9:1| 2.2|| 0.00|| 0.20|| 0.43 0| 0|100131209/0400Z 64 11004KT 28.3F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.09|| 0.081 9:1| 2.2|| 0.00|| 0.29|| 0.51 0| 0|100131209/0500Z 65 12003KT 28.5F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.06|| 0.057 9:1| 2.2|| 0.00|| 0.35|| 0.57 0| 0|100131209/0600Z 66 VRB02KT 29.2F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.06|| 0.058 9:1| 2.2|| 0.00|| 0.41|| 0.62 0| 0|100----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---131209/0700Z 67 06003KT 30.1F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.23|| 0.220 9:1| 2.2|| 0.00|| 0.64|| 0.84 0| 0|100131209/0800Z 68 11003KT 30.5F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.06|| 0.061 9:1| 2.2|| 0.00|| 0.70|| 0.91 0| 0|100131209/0900Z 69 10004KT 31.0F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.06|| 0.053 9:1| 2.2|| 0.00|| 0.76|| 0.96 0| 0|100131209/1000Z 70 13005KT 31.9F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.14|| 0.134 9:1| 2.2|| 0.00|| 0.90|| 1.09 0| 0|100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 WS Watches up for the far western zones. Nada for most of us, yet at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 WASHINGTON-EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-WESTERN HIGHLAND-EASTERN HIGHLAND-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY-WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-WESTERN PENDLETON-EASTERN PENDLETON-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAGERSTOWN...FROSTBURG...CUMBERLAND...STAUNTON...WAYNESBORO...HARRISONBURG...WINCHESTER...FRONT ROYAL...CHARLOTTESVILLE...HIGHTOWN...MONTEREY...MARTINSBURG...CHARLES TOWN...MOOREFIELD...BAYARD...MOUNT STORM...PETERSBURG...ELK GARDEN...KEYSER...FORT ASHBY...CIRCLEVILLE...FRANKLIN1207 PM EST FRI DEC 6 2013...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGHMONDAY MORNING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HASISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAYMORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW AND SLEET WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALLFREEZING RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH MONDAYMORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET AND A QUARTERINCH OR MORE OF ICE ACCUMULATION. ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A HALFINCH POSSIBLE AT ELEVATIONS BELOW 1500 FEET.* TIMING...SNOW AND SLEET ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE CENTRALFOOTHILLS AND SHENANDOAH VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING AND SPREADNORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN VIRGINIA...THE EASTERN PANHANDLE OFWEST VIRGINIA AND THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING.A CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED MIDDAY SUNDAY ANDCONTINUING INTO THE NIGHT BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN MONDAYMORNING. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FEET WILL CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAINSUNDAY EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 WS Watches up for the far western zones. Nada for most of us, yet at least. To be expected IMO for now... I wouldn't expect us to have WSWatch till tomorrow morning if we get one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 2-4" of snow seems high. I'll take it tough. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 To be expected IMO for now... I wouldn't expect us to have WSWatch till tomorrow morning if we get one could be this PM if anything gets clearer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Certainly could be wrong, but seems like LWX is going early on the change over to freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 could be this PM if anything gets clearer. Could be in the 330 package, but I think they will wait for another model suite (as in the 00z NAM/GFS) until pulling the trigger on watches further east than where they are now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Can someone please summarize the 12z GFS analysis since the thread got deleted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.