Ian Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Predict the following: Storm total snowfall: BWI DCA IAD ROA Tiebreaker... Highest ice report in the LWX region as per public info statement (just a number). Example.. Storm total snowfall: BWI - 0.7 DCA - 8.4 IAD - 1.2 ROA - 0.1 Tiebreaker: LWX hi ice rpt - 0.65" ===== Winner is whoever has the smallest departure total (departure by airport then indiv departures added together). Doubt there's a tiebreaker needed but suppose that's likely the main element in this sys so might as well include it. Entries due by 10:00a Saturday. Early entries may be edited through that time as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Predict the following: Storm total snowfall: BWI DCA IAD ROA Tiebreaker... Highest ice report in the LWX region as per public info statement (just a number). Example.. Storm total snowfall: BWI - 0.7 DCA - 8.4 IAD - 1.2 ROA - 0.1 Tiebreaker: LWX hi ice rpt - 0.65" ===== Winner is whoever has the smallest departure total (departure by airport then indiv departures added together). Doubt there's a tiebreaker needed but suppose that's likely the main element in this sys so might as well include it. Entries due by 10:00a Saturday. Early entries may be edited through that time as well. You should add a multiplier for early entries. After all, we do try to forecast. It would be simple. Work back from your deadline. Posts within 6 hours of deadline, multiply total departure by 1 (no bonus). 6-12 hrs prior to deadline multiply by 0.95, 12-18 hrs by 0.9, etc (lowering the total dep no as a bonus). It's your contest. Just a thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTJustice Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I'm just not feeling this one. I hope I busto. BWI: T DCA: 0 IAD: T ROA: 1" Tiebreaker: 0.2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Storm total snowfall: BWI - 1.2" DCA - .8" IAD - 1.1" ROA - .7" Tiebreaker... .56" of ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Storm total snowfall: BWI - .9" DCA - .7 IAD - 1.3" ROA - .2 Tiebreaker... .64" of ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 BWI: 2.7" DCA: 1.8" IAD: 3.1" ROA: .8" Ice TB: .67 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 6, 2013 Author Share Posted December 6, 2013 You should add a multiplier for early entries. After all, we do try to forecast. It would be simple. Work back from your deadline. Posts within 6 hours of deadline, multiply total departure by 1 (no bonus). 6-12 hrs prior to deadline multiply by 0.95, 12-18 hrs by 0.9, etc (lowering the total dep no as a bonus). It's your contest. Just a thought. Not a bad idea but perhaps complicated. Might be easier to say if you enter by like 9p tomorrow (before 0z runs) you can get a free 0.5-1 off your departure or something. On the flipside, a number now might be considered more of a guess than one tomorrow night or Saturday morning. So maybe you'd be rewarding luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 BWI: 0.8" DCA: 0.4" IAD: 2.3" ROA: 0.7" Tiebreaker: 0.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Not a bad idea but perhaps complicated. Might be easier to say if you enter by like 9p tomorrow (before 0z runs) you can get a free 0.5-1 off your departure or something. On the flipside, a number now might be considered more of a guess than one tomorrow night or Saturday morning. So maybe you'd be rewarding luck. Mine is a guess, for sure. Always is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 6, 2013 Author Share Posted December 6, 2013 Mine is a guess, for sure. Always is.Well I guess it all is right? Heh. But you could have a big swing between now and Saturday morning which make the early and unchanged forecasts bad. It just seems complicated...I'll enter after the GFS but will prob edit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Well I guess it all is right? Heh. But you could have a big swing between now and Saturday morning which make the early and unchanged forecasts bad. It just seems complicated... I'll enter after the GFS but will prob edit. It will always be complicated unless people drastically restrict the time-frames of the contests. But, I understand that a narrow time-frame would decrease the number of entries. So, for a storm like this one, maybe the contest should be open for a 6-hour window surrounding the 0Z runs tomorrow night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Well I guess it all is right? Heh. But you could have a big swing between now and Saturday morning which make the early and unchanged forecasts bad. It just seems complicated... I'll enter after the GFS but will prob edit. If I do well, it's purely luck. I don't really have any skill's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 BWI: T DCA: T IAD: T TB: T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 BWI 0.2 DCA 0.0 IAD 0.8 ROA 1.4 TB .3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I might make my entries lower now that the 6z has run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 BWI. .2 DCA .4 IAD .75 ROA 1 TB: .4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 sorry for the silly question -- but do you want snowfall in inches (so 2 inches total) or the qpf equivalent? Because it looks like people are doing both, unless some really think IAD will only pick up <1" of snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 6, 2013 Author Share Posted December 6, 2013 sorry for the silly question -- but do you want snowfall in inches (so 2 inches total) or the qpf equivalent? Because it looks like people are doing both, unless some really think IAD will only pick up <1" of snow? snowfall in inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 snowfall in inches Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 BWI 1.2 DCA 1.7 IAD 2.4 ROA 1.5 Tie 0.48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 BWI 0.4 DCA 1.2 IAD 2.1 ROA 1.2 Tie 0.72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 6, 2013 Author Share Posted December 6, 2013 BWI 1.7 DCA 1.1 IAD 2.4 ROA 0.8 Tie 0.50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 BWI 1.2 DCA 0.8 IAD 2.0 ROA 1.3 Tie 0.48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 BWI - 1.0 DCA - 0.5 IAD - 1.3 ROA - 0.5 tie - 0.333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333331 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 BWI -- Tr DCA -- 0.0 IAD -- 0.2 ROA -- 1.1 ice 0.57" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 BWI 1" DCA .5" IAD 1.5" ROA 1.2" Tiebreaker: .48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 BWI .99" DCA 2.1" IAD 3.8" ROA .8" Tiebreaker: .42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 BWI .99" DCA 2.1" IAD 3.8" ROA .8" Tiebreaker: .42 Go big or go home? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Go big or go home? I'll probably revise but I'll stick with those #'s if models hold serve or improve modestly. I'm still kinda feeling this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 BWI - 2.0" DCA - 2.5" IAD - 3.0" ROA - 1.8" Tiebreaker: 0.60" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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