mimillman Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Respectable model consensus the past couple days. Discuss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 GFS and the new GEM are definitely more progressive with this wave. 12z Euro is less progressive, and provides a better opportunity for meaningful winter precip. 00z Euro should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 GGEM really loads on the snow in the northern subforum. Second wave is weaker and further south than the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Not much frozen on the 0z GGEM with this wave. The second wave a day later does bring snow through IN and OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 0z Euro appears colder and south and east of the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LouWX Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 HUGE shift quicker on 0z ECMWF. Would support winter precip by Thursday in IN and IL, previous runs had highs 50s-60s. Forecaster nightmare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 EURO has a third wave farther NW than the second one now. Would snow throughout the Ozarks, then southeast of a line from STL to TOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 One thing seems to ring true. The early December strong baroclinic zone that develops later this week seems unmotivated in producing a powerful storm system relative to the strength of the BZ. Seems like a waste of great BZ to me. Hopefully trends improve going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 HUGE shift quicker on 0z ECMWF. Would support winter precip by Thursday in IN and IL, previous runs had highs 50s-60s. Forecaster nightmare. It really just shifted back to the previous 0z run after the 12z took it west and warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Reasons why you don't start storm threads for threats that are 120+ hrs out. Usually best to wait till we are around the 84hr time range. Only exception would be if it is a bomb showing which models tend to pick up better further out vs these weak systems that are supposed to form along a front. Yes some will hit and verify but more often then not it either vanishes or turns into something totally different. I also think starting these threads so early in recent years is what has lead to more complaining etc on these forums. ALA too many let downs for stuff that should have never been expected to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Reasons why you don't start storm threads for threats that are 120+ hrs out. Usually best to wait till we are around the 84hr time range. Only exception would be if it is a bomb showing which models tend to pick up better further out vs these weak systems that are supposed to form along a front. Yes some will hit and verify but more often then not it either vanishes or turns into something totally different. I also think starting these threads so early in recent years is what has lead to more complaining etc on these forums. ALA too many let downs for stuff that should have never been expected to begin with. Yeah...its good to discuss it in the Dec thread or whatever, but even then...it appears we will be in somewhat of a stormy pattern, but at this stage in the game, tracks obviously cant be nailed down, but even dates cant yet either. It would be nice if all get in on the action if indeed there are many waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 One thing seems to ring true. The early December strong baroclinic zone that develops later this week seems unmotivated in producing a powerful storm system relative to the strength of the BZ. Seems like a waste of great BZ to me. Hopefully trends improve going forward. Yeah I agree, would be a shame not to get something good out of it. Reasons why you don't start storm threads for threats that are 120+ hrs out. Usually best to wait till we are around the 84hr time range. Only exception would be if it is a bomb showing which models tend to pick up better further out vs these weak systems that are supposed to form along a front. Yes some will hit and verify but more often then not it either vanishes or turns into something totally different. I also think starting these threads so early in recent years is what has lead to more complaining etc on these forums. ALA too many let downs for stuff that should have never been expected to begin with. Yes, I agree especially with these marginal events. I had to do a double take when I saw this thread, especially since the OP said there is model consistency, which is far from the truth. Only thing consistent is a system, but there are so many details that are completely up in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 1, 2013 Author Share Posted December 1, 2013 I apologize. I just wanted to see some channeled discussion, which is what is happening. If it's better deleted then the mods will take care of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 We've had threads started from a week+ out in the past (I'm guilty of it). In general the informal 5 day rule seems fine though perhaps not in a case like this. At the end of the day it's just a storm thread on a weather board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 We've had threads started from a week+ out in the past (I'm guilty of it). In general the informal 5 day rule seems fine though perhaps not in a case like this. At the end of the day it's just a storm thread on a weather board. Those week+ ones were obvious that something big was going to happen for someone, even then probably could have waited for it to get to within the 5 day range. This system however, doesn't look like more than a fleeting event for anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 All in all, I think area roughly north of 44° N will see a nice swath of snow from this first wave, what the second wave does or the third - who knows. Should know more by Monday evening and when the system works it's way into the upper air network. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 1, 2013 Author Share Posted December 1, 2013 All in all, I think area roughly north of 44° N will see a nice swath of snow from this first wave, what the second wave does or the third - who knows. Should know more by Monday evening and when the system works it's way into the upper air network. Well put. I think it'll be interesting to see how it evolves, especially since there's no written rule that whatever is modeled out 5+ days isn't at all set in stone. There's a lot that can change in the next couple days, as we've seen happen with many storms. So although, yes, it may be that this event is now modeled as a "fleeting event" for a few folks, it could very well change. Or, it won't change. But I just wanted to see some discussion about this particular event. Once again, sorry if it's clutter; it wasn't my intention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 I apologize. I just wanted to see some channeled discussion, which is what is happening. If it's better deleted then the mods will take care of it. You're fine. The general rule is <7 days. And I've seen threads for storms with fainter hope than this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 look at stebo still playing mod...lol thread is fine but the storm will be a progressive dud. punt until January this pattern sux Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 look at stebo still playing mod...lol thread is fine but the storm will be a progressive dud. punt until January this pattern sux yep we can't seem to move the ball... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 look at stebo still playing mod...lol thread is fine but the storm will be a progressive dud. punt until January this pattern sux Lol we have a likely SE Ridge potential gradient pattern and you still choose to punt until Jan. When will you meet a pattern you like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 look at stebo still playing mod...lol thread is fine but the storm will be a progressive dud. punt until January this pattern sux Look at Alek caring about my posts. Furthermore the pattern doesn't suck if you can get something to phase, the problem is that has occurred yet, when it does it will yield nicely for a portion of the region. The fact we keep getting these Arctic outbreaks is a good thing, it won't take much to hook into a Southern steam system and get a nice cutter going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 I don't expect anything out of this one. Heck, I have been paying so little attention, I haven't looked at a model in about 2 weeks. Forecast for Chicago metro, latter part of the week: Wed: Rain 46/35, Thurs: P Cloudy 40/25 Friday: Mix? 28/12. Sat: Sunny 24/8. TV mets hinted at "Snow showers" for Friday. That's it, then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 1, 2013 Author Share Posted December 1, 2013 12z GFS hits eastern Oklahoma, southern Missouri, and northern Arkansas pretty well with both the second and third lows associated with the front. Snow lovers down there would be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 I apologize if this is the wrong thread to ask this, but is the arctic outbreak for the week of the 9th still a possibility? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 A powdery 4-5 inches would be nice and rare. I prefer the more amped up solutions. Getting more folks involved. The NAM is still leaning towards something more amped. But it is the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Someone posted it on the Accu weather forums so i borrowed it to post here. Interesting that they would post from WB. If it's somewhere else other than a forum that would be alright. LAF, IND, STL, TOL probably have the best shot at snow at this point. Not sure about further NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 A powdery 4-5 inches would be nice and rare. I prefer the more amped up solutions. Getting more folks involved. The NAM is still leaning towards something more amped. But it is the nam 12z GFS seems to be picking up on the second wave a little better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Something about the GFS solution is odd. It keeps the H5 longwave trough basically stationary but has the sfc frontal boundary progressively move to the SE. My initial thinking is that the GFS (and other models) may be too far south with this threat attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 LAF, IND, STL, TOL probably have the best shot at snow at this point. Not sure about further NW. I feel disappointment with this system is brewing so I am keeping expectations low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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