Ian Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 Close enough... probably best to keep longer range pattern stuff separate: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41745-december-pattern-discussion/ Anything in the near term (first few days of Dec at this pt) is game here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 28, 2013 Author Share Posted November 28, 2013 since snow maps did us so well with the last storm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 since snow maps did us so well with the last storm: ecmwf_tsnow_washdc_41.png Seems about right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 Next week looks as boring as high school history class. That is all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 Blame me for posting next week's coastal storm in the pattern thread. But with every run it is getting marginally more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 Keeping separate threads is a good idea. Long range and short range are 2 different animals. I don't think much can happen with the mini-coastal. There is no moisture getting pulled into the system until it deepens off the coast. We would have to have a good bit of cyclogenesis to occur south of our latitude to get some sort of ccb going. I'm not sure it possible in this setup. We would need a crawler and a big block. I could be wrong. Even if it got cranking surface temps are bad. It would be another mid-upper 30's kind of deal verbatim. Hopefully Ian and others see more op than me. I'm not feelin it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 29, 2013 Author Share Posted November 29, 2013 Keeping separate threads is a good idea. Long range and short range are 2 different animals. I don't think much can happen with the mini-coastal. There is no moisture getting pulled into the system until it deepens off the coast. We would have to have a good bit of cyclogenesis to occur south of our latitude to get some sort of ccb going. I'm not sure it possible in this setup. We would need a crawler and a big block. I could be wrong. Even if it got cranking surface temps are bad. It would be another mid-upper 30's kind of deal verbatim. Hopefully Ian and others see more op than me. I'm not feelin it. I like reading the long range stuff but usually don't have much to say myself. I think it's better to not have it all intermixed if you want to get a quick view of either. I suppose it might be tricky where the cutoff is but I think an obs thread at least covers out to day 5, maybe day 7. But that's up to others. I had basically written the storm threat off already though the GFS is a little closer. We typically don't do well in these types of setups.. timing might be OK though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 I hope we can get 1-3" from the 12/8 event, because that'd be our biggest storm for the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 What's the Euro showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 It took a sizable jump west, but still really no effect in the DC area, and not as wrapped up further up the coast like the GFS. I am talking about the 3rd, not the 8th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 still crisp outside for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 18z NAM continues to show a westward trend on Monday's coastal. Seems to sit near Cape Hatteras for the last 6-9 hours and strengthens somewhat. Also now shows a weak system in Ohio. Any chance of a merger of sorts around the NC/VA coastline? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 18z NAM continues to show a westward trend on Monday's coastal. Seems to sit near Cape Hatteras for the last 6-9 hours and strengthens somewhat. Also now shows a weak system in Ohio. Any chance of a merger of sorts around the NC/VA coastline? I wouldn't worry much about the nam past 48hrs or so. Verbatim, the surface reflection in oh at the end of the run would be very bad. Temps are already marginal. Any type of surface reflection to the nw would mean return surface flow doing even more temp damage. If the piece of energy even exists, we want the vort and surface reflection to be a good bit further south to help us in some fashion or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 GFS long range shows our first imaginary KU of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Anywhere from 19-21 degrees....yummy cold start to December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Anywhere from 19-21 degrees....yummy cold start to December Not as cold here but cars are frosty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 22.5 for the low. It's been freakin' cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Completely clouded over again out here. We get about an hour or two of sun the past couple of days and then it's gone. I think our 30's streak ends but reaching forecast highs might be a chore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 1, 2013 Author Share Posted December 1, 2013 Felt warm out this morning so I looked and it's 41. Already one of the longest winters since I've moved here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Clouds here now to...35ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Up to 32 here. Long way to go to get to my forecast high today of 49. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 22.4 for the low. Up to 43 now. ~Sent from a device that cannot speel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 1, 2013 Author Share Posted December 1, 2013 sun gap is closing to the west. might be cloudy the rest of the day.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Cloudy and chilly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 49. torching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 1, 2013 Author Share Posted December 1, 2013 The banter thread is crushing this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 The banter thread is crushing this thread. One or 2 days more with favorable runs for next week's event and this thread will be on fire. And then we burn to the ground with an epic weenie meltdown of seismic proportions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Heat wave! 45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Heat wave! 45 Wow. I'm still at 35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Wow. I'm still at 35. Winchester heat island! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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