Northern Foothills Snowman Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Yep, and 2004. In 2002 we had a 10"+ event, it's the years in between where we get an inch or less that brings our averages down. Also, it's been since 2004 since we had over 10" in a season, which is our longest stretch ever I believe. We typically average 3 10"+ seasons every 10 years. You know your area better than I but what about 2009/2010 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbitt Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 You said no SE ridge this winter. a few weeks don't make a whole winter does it? the se ridge will not stop our winter. i will stick bye that thanks .we normally don't see much snow in dec no way the winter is young an can last 2an half more months, so know what u talking about before talking about my forcast . the facts in book says the pattern in jan an feb will be much diffrent ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbitt Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Two of the snowiest winters were 1996 and 2000? year 2000 was nothing but one huge snow an may be a little one before winter ended . 2010 was better in most spots in nc .2002 was also a good winter in nc . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Western ridging not as sharp on the 00z GFS for the Jan 2 system...looks like it may try to spit out a bit of precip, but probably not much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Keep an eye on future runs for what the GFS is showing around hour 180. Right now it has three pieces of energy kind of aligned but too much separation for a big phase. Either way it is showing another chance of snow around 192. So the good news is the GFS is showing multiple chances for wintry weather. Can't be upset at that. That is the type of pattern we want to be in. Rinse and repeat. The big question will be about how cold it actually gets and can that support what we want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 a few weeks don't make a whole winter does it? the se ridge will not stop our winter. i will stick bye that thanks .we normally don't see much snow in dec no way the winter is young an can last 2an half more months, so know what u talking about before talking about my forcast . the facts in book says the pattern in jan an feb will be much diffrent ? Well it certainly helped stop last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Western ridging not as sharp on the 00z GFS for the Jan 2 system...looks like it may try to spit out a bit of precip, but probably not much definitely more blocking showing up though, it has yet to sort some things out for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 definitely more blocking showing up though, it has yet to sort some things out for sure. LR this run looks more realistic with the cold. Doesn't bring down record cold like other runs. Kind of looks more seasonal with the cold air. A good look none the less and again probably more realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 a few weeks don't make a whole winter does it? the se ridge will not stop our winter. i will stick bye that thanks .we normally don't see much snow in dec no way the winter is young an can last 2an half more months, so know what u talking about before talking about my forcast . the facts in book says the pattern in jan an feb will be much diffrent ?Lol yes it will. Did it snow in December? Hell no. We don't see much snow in January or February either. Not sure what facts or book you are talking about, but the same pattern that caused the record heat this month can happen again next month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbitt Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Lol yes it will. Did it snow in December? Hell no. We don't see much snow in January or February either. Not sure what facts or book you are talking about, but the same pattern that caused the record heat this month can happen again next month. the facts of the book i said before winter started , the postive pdo an solar max connection .this connection affects the south east in jan an feb an that is a fact of the book . it snowed in places in nov an that type of pattern is now repeating in jan . see me after the winter is over we see who was right ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Well it certainly helped stop last winter. It didn't stop last winter .It started later Feb through April were cold .Not much snow at all here in the SE but cold it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterhawk Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Santa must've left a lot of coal in the SE today..He did say don't give up on snow no matter what some may try to say; all you have to do is believe. Well there's that, cold air, moisture, threading the needle; beating back the ridge; etc, etc... Merry end of Christmas to all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 It didn't stop last winter .It started later Feb through April were cold .Not much snow at all here in the SE but cold it was. Last winter was horrible and I was one of the few posters on this board that actually saw snow. It was god awful due to a positive NAO and a very stubborn SE ridge. To claim the SE ridge didn't hurt us almost all of last winter is a bit silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Keep an eye on future runs for what the GFS is showing around hour 180. Right now it has three pieces of energy kind of aligned but too much separation for a big phase. Either way it is showing another chance of snow around 192. So the good news is the GFS is showing multiple chances for wintry weather. Can't be upset at that. That is the type of pattern we want to be in. Rinse and repeat. The big question will be about how cold it actually gets and can that support what we want.We get ten potential shortwaves and one works out, but I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 We get ten potential shortwaves and one works out, but I'll take it. Yea if I had a dollar for every time we we're hoping for a phase or for energy to dig south west enough I would probably have an extra $400 in the bank right now. Given the last two winters it's hard not to look at the past few runs of the GFS and not at least get somewhat excited. Just wish it was hour 80 instead of 180. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 the facts of the book i said before winter started , the postive pdo an solar max connection .this connection affects the south east in jan an feb an that is a fact of the book . it snowed in places in nov an that type of pattern is now repeating in jan . see me after the winter is over we see who was right ?Why does this PDOSMC only affect the SE in January or February? The EPO has been in control so far this winter. Not sure where this solar max connection is coming in from. Sounds worse than SSW events. Also snow in November has no correlation with how the rest of the Winter, and I will definitely want to see you after this winter is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbitt Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Why does this PDOSMC only affect the SE in January or February? The EPO has been in control so far this winter. Not sure where this solar max connection is coming in from. Sounds worse than SSW events. Also snow in November has no correlation with how the rest of the Winter, and I will definitely want to see you after this winter is over. the wpo has been in control too , asking me about the study of facts from great mets y it happens only in jan an feb ? i didn't event the facts they are there for u. .any one who knows what a repeating pattern is live an die bye it . there is some truth too it oct an nov is important pattern wise too our winter. there are ways too alter the pattern but for a long time now the blocking has started showing up every 30 days or so . watch the qbo if it starts weaking fast this winter pattern could get stuck an make yall grumpy people happy ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 You know your area better than I but what about 2009/2010 ? 9", several areas in NC had 10"+ season but we just missed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 GEFS mean has nice signal day 8, but need to see the individuals, could be case of amped up and warm balance out the cold/dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 9", several areas in NC had 10"+ season but we just missed out. Yeah, the Triad saw 15-20" of snow that winter and I'm guessing the northern foothills might have been closer to 25-30". There was a sharp cutoff with the December 2009 storm that skewed totals some depending on whether you were N/W or S/E of GSO. The March 2010 storm featured variable totals as did the February 5, 2010 "Snowmageddon" storm, where areas in the Triad saw 2-4" of snow on the front-end before it turned over to rain. Of course, then we got in on the northern fringes of February 12, 2010 and we had the epic storm on January 29-30, 2010. I'm probably missing some minor events, too, but the bottom line is that winter was epic! Some of you guys need to chill out. There's really no reason to be melting down right now, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbitt Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 GEFS mean has nice signal day 8, but need to see the individuals, could be case of amped up and warm balance out the cold/dry. 192 is nice an it shows the snow showers on the 31st too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Who wants a shadow? My new expertise is forecasting shadows. Serving up a shadow for the foothills who wants some? hr132 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 oh my god....who wants another one? hr192...luckily truncation can't handle shadows so we do get the goods post trunc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 the wpo has been in control too , asking me about the study of facts from great mets y it happens only in jan an feb ? i didn't event the facts they are there for u. .any one who knows what a repeating pattern is live an die bye it . there is some truth too it oct an nov is important pattern wise too our winter. there are ways too alter the pattern but for a long time now the blocking has started showing up every 30 days or so . watch the qbo if it starts weaking fast this winter pattern could get stuck an make yall grumpy people happy ?No it hasn't. The EPO has mainly driven the pattern . Do you have a link or something to those great mets because I don't no what you are talking about? I agree that October is important pattern wise, but not sure for November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbitt Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 No it hasn't. The EPO has mainly driven the pattern . Do you have a link or something to those great mets because I don't no what you are talking about? I agree that October is important pattern wise, but not sure for November. joe d is one of the great metts! there are many other metts i listen too meation this also , but joe d from weather bell has been talking about this forever . i have few mett friends on face book, i talk too about the connection! but if u want too see examples, go too weather bell joe d been showing examples for a long time. . The epo went postive for a little bitt, but the pattern stayed cold, becasue the wpo was still holding on, kicking cold out of alaska! .Joe d said quote, 'the dec pattern want be the main pattern for the winter. the jan feb qbo solar max connection should take hold . I said this before winter started before he even started the examples , like i said i have good mett friends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 I agree. But even as it is modeled now, verbatim, the 18Z GFS has light snow from the afternoon of 1/2 to the morning of 1/3 in many areas of NC, SC, and GA. In NC, the heaviest appears to be near Wilmington (~2") and the coast to the NE (up to 5"!) as was suggested by superjames1992. In GA, Macon, Augusta, Columbus, Atlanta, Athens, and Tony get a nice hit of 0.5" to 1". Even Savannah gets some flurries. In SC, GSP, MYR, COLA, and CHS also get the nice ~0.5 to 1". Surface temperatures are plenty cold with 20's in many cases for a good portion. So, the 1/2-3 period may turn out to be the most interesting period to date of this winter for many in the SE. We'll see. Folks, The 0Z GFS dropped this near Miller A scenario for 1/2-3. However, the 0Z GEFS is actually showing it even more than the 18Z GEFS for mainly 1/2. Therefore, I say game very much on for some chance for a supressed Miller A ~1/2-3 that could give some of the SE an accumulating snow. Has anyone seen the individual members of the 0Z GEFS from 168 to 192 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 please get good english teachers like the "good mett friends." It's JB btw. He's talking about Joe D'aleo who has been calling for a SSW event due to solar factors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Folks, The 0Z GFS dropped this near Miller A scenario for 1/2-3. However, the 0Z GEFS is actually showing it even more than the 18Z GEFS for mainly 1/2. Therefore, I say game very much on for some chance for a possible supressed Miller A ~1/2-3 that could give some of the SE an accumulating snow. Has anyone seen the individual members of the 0Z GEFS from 168 to 192 hours? Any time around the 1st has been good to me a few times This cloud cover I've had this evening is slowing the cooling, but with such a low dp, I've got a good chance at some virga sleet tonight, if some of that virga that's near by makes it over me, lol. I won't stay up for it, but I'll stay up on New Years Eve, and the next few nights if need be, because I think it's coming, and probably not virga...could be any of those impulses, or one unseen Heck, I'm watching the weekend. Get that cold 4 states closer, and the low further south It getting to be the time when stuff happens, after waiting since April. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbitt Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Any time around the 1st has been good to me a few times This cloud cover I've had this evening is slowing the cooling, but with such a low dp, I've got a good chance at some virga sleet tonight, if some of that virga that's near by makes it over me, lol. I won't stay up for it, but I'll stay up on New Years Eve, and the next few nights if need be, because I think it's coming, and probably not virga...could be any of those impulses, or one unseen Heck, I'm watching the weekend. Get that cold 4 states closer, and the low further south It getting to be the time when stuff happens, after waiting since April. T euro tonight is way colder on the 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Raleigh says freezing rain advisory if precip gets in before 5am. Some light development is taking place. Mostly drizzle with a few stray showers now starting to showing up on radar. Goodnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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