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Potential Thanksgiving Event

strongwxnc

By strongwxnc,
in Southeastern States

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Stovepipe

Stovepipe

Posted
Posted

0z Euro shows a nice little thump on RDU:

                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
TUE 18Z 26-NOV   3.2     4.4    1023      96      98    0.12     570     552    
WED 00Z 27-NOV   7.5     7.2    1015      99     100    0.33     569     557    
WED 06Z 27-NOV  11.7    11.4    1005      98      99    0.98     567     563    
WED 12Z 27-NOV   7.1    12.0    1002      98      95    0.39     563     561    
WED 18Z 27-NOV   4.6     6.0    1002      96      76    0.48     556     555    
THU 00Z 28-NOV   1.1    -4.8    1008      96      99    0.31     547     541    
THU 06Z 28-NOV  -2.7    -6.4    1015      64       2    0.16     549     537    
THU 12Z 28-NOV  -5.9    -4.9    1022      59       2    0.00     556     538    
THU 18Z 28-NOV   1.9    -7.1    1026      55       7    0.00     560     539    
FRI 00Z 29-NOV  -1.0    -8.8    1031      47      12    0.00     564     539
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thunderwolf

thunderwolf

Posted
Posted

Unless something changes this looks like mainly a rain event. Our source of cold air this weekend, the strong cold high pressure will move to our NE by Tuesday leaving us with no new source of cold air. So that leaves us with our shallow cold surface dome and a weak low pressure in the gulf. Initially, precip may override some of the cold air and produce some freezing rain or sleet. But it looks like the surface low will be too weak to get the precip to NC in time before the WAA kicks in. On the backside, the coastal low and the Canadian clipper have to timed just right in order to have enough precip leftover to change over to snow. While this is a solution, so many things must come together perfectly for it to happen and thus it is unlikely any significant p type issues will occur.

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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted

It's really bullish on ice here, according to the type maps.

 

Unless something changes this looks like mainly a rain event. Our source of cold air this weekend, the strong cold high pressure will move to our NE by Tuesday leaving us with no new source of cold air. So that leaves us with our shallow cold surface dome and a weak low pressure in the gulf. Initially, precip may override some of the cold air and produce some freezing rain or sleet. But it looks like the surface low will be too weak to get the precip to NC in time before the WAA kicks in. On the backside, the coastal low and the Canadian clipper have to timed just right in order to have enough precip leftover to change over to snow. While this is a solution, so many things must come together perfectly for it to happen and thus it is unlikely any significant p type issues will occur.

 

The CMC is running the precip into the leftover cold dome (in-situ damming) Monday night while the wet-bulbs are still cold...whereas the GFS waits until midday Tues when warming has occurred.  

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BullCityWx

BullCityWx

Posted
Posted

The CMC is running the precip into the leftover cold dome (in-situ damming) Monday night while the wet-bulbs are still cold...whereas the GFS waits until midday Tues when warming has occurred.

Depending on timing, that's a plausible scenario considering where td's will be on Sunday. If this was an overrunning situation, I would be really bullish on that.

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thunderwolf

thunderwolf

Posted
Posted

Depending on timing, that's a plausible scenario considering where td's will be on Sunday. If this was an overrunning situation, I would be really bullish on that.

There's a rather large discrepancy between the models on the timing of the upper level low that is currently spinning in the SW. Once that starts moving the models will start to converge on a solution regarding speed and to a lesser extent strength of the trough. A stronger upper level low gets the precip here faster, increasing the chances of in-situ CAD.

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Shawn

Shawn

Posted
Posted

Euro snows in deep south areas like AL, Miss, Big chunk of GA, Upstate SC, heavier in the mountains onf NC, some across NC proper.

 

From what I see on these maps:

 

1" CLT

0" CAE

Close to 3.5" ATL (could be the wrong area im looking at)

2-3" GSP

 

These are based off "snowfall" not accumulated.

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tnweathernut

tnweathernut

Posted
Posted

So did both GFS and Euro take a significant move back south??  It's almost comical that the models have been showing a virtual snowless area on the lee side of the apps and now they appear to be the biggest winners.  Pretty crazy actually.  I think there will be many more changes in the coming 2-3 days personally.

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FLweather

FLweather

Posted
Posted

Euro looks really good. Has what looks to realistically be 1-2 inches for most in NC on the back end. Now the battle begins for which model is right.

Really none of them atm!

 

But overall should not really focus on where the snow was or now... But the placement of the s/w max and the setup for the storm.

 

As Ive said before the whole longwave pattern in general would support a snowstorm. But right now both are generally wrong in sense of temp wise I do believe. I think that both are withdrawling the cold air out too fast ahead of the storm. I don't understand how such a cold dense airmass can be eroded that quickly considering how cold its projected to be temp wise and dp wise.

 

With that said wouldnt trust the models with precip amounts or types not until 72 hours out. Could run colder and colder model wise. 

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burgertime

burgertime

Posted
Posted

Really none of them atm!

 

But overall should not really focus on where the snow was or now... But the placement of the s/w max and the setup for the storm.

 

As Ive said before the whole longwave pattern in general would support a snowstorm. But right now both are generally wrong in sense of temp wise I do believe. I think that both are withdrawling the cold air out too fast ahead of the storm. I don't understand how such a cold dense airmass can be eroded that quickly considering how cold its projected to be temp wise and dp wise.

 

With that said wouldnt trust the models with precip amounts or types not until 72 hours out. Could run colder and colder model wise. 

 

Said that myself tons of times as WAA comes in and just totally kills our chances. 

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Shawn

Shawn

Posted
Posted

Sorry if it's been posted:

 

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1109 AM EST FRI NOV 22 2013VALID 12Z MON NOV 25 2013 - 12Z FRI NOV 29 2013...MODEL SPREAD--AND STAKES--REMAIN HIGH WITH FUTURE OFSOUTHWESTERN TROUGH...WITH THE FLOW OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA EXPECTED TO OPEN BY THEMEDIUM RANGE, IMPORTANT SHIFTS IN SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FOLLOW.UNFORTUNATELY, THE LOCATION AND TYPE OF POTENTIAL HAZARDS ARE FARFROM CLEAR AT THIS POINT. THE KEY PLAYERS ARE THE POSITIVE-TILTTROUGH CURRENTLY LODGED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE UNITED STATESDESERT SOUTHWEST, AND THE STREAM OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS DIPPING INTOTHE CANADIAN-BORDER STATES. TIMING AND AMPLITUDE ARE BOTHCRITICAL--AND SERIOUSLY IN QUESTION. IF THE SOUTHWESTERN WAVEEMERGES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING A SLACKENING OFTHE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY, IT WILL MAKE CONSIDERABLE INROADS INTOTHE EASTERN UNITED STATES. IF NOT, MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN STREAMMOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL BE HERDED TO THE ATLANTIC COAST ORPOINTS OFFSHORE. RELIED ON THE 00Z/22 EUROPEAN CENTRE ENSEMBLEMEAN AS A SYNOPTIC GUIDE FOR THE WHOLE NATION, LARGELY DUE TO ITSINHERENT STABILITY VIA THE SHEAR NUMBER OF INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLEMEMBERS--AND ITS SKILLFUL TRACK RECORD. RAIN, THUNDERSTORMS, ICE,SNOW, AND HIGH WINDS ARE ALL POSSIBLE THREATS FACING MUCH OF THECENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES ON THE BUSY TRAVEL DAYS BEFORETHANKSGIVING NEXT WEEK. WILL HOPEFULLY HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THESPECIFICS ONCE THE SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH ACTUALLY BEGINS TO MOVE.CISCO
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