Potential Record Breaking Cold Sunday/Sunday Night---Late Nov Discussion

[ORH_wxman]

I thought it was time to shift to a new thread for the end of this month and beyond. The most imminent interesting weather is the potential record cold for Sunday and maybe Sunday night.

 

Most places (including BOS and PVD) will probably not make it out of the 20s on Sunday. I believe all 5 SNE major climo sites will break their record low max temperatures for November 24th if the cold makes it in on time before the midnight bell on Saturday night. For BDL and probably BDR, I think they will make it. For BOS/ORH/PVD, its a bit murkier...probably about 50/50. We'll likely know if the record low maxes will be broken on Sunday by midnight Saturday night.

 

 

Record lows for Monday morning are going to be harder...BDR looks like a lock with their record low being a vulnerable 22F, but the others probably won't make it. BDL has a shot if they can go calm late (record low for 11/25 there is 12F). ORH has an outside shot with the record low being 9F and several 2m outputs bottoming out near 10-12F. BOS (13F) and PVD (12F) are probably out of reach, but can't totally rule it out. But think mid to upper teens will probably do it there.

 

Here's the 00z NAM's 2m temps for 18z Sunday around the time of typical high temps:

 

 

 

 

 

 

A more organized list of the records:

 

 

Record low maxes for 11/24:

 

BOS: 29F (1936)

PVD: 31F (1936)

ORH: 26F (2000)

BDL: 31F (1936)

BDR: 35F (2000, 1989, 1956)

 

 

Record lows for 11/25:

 

BOS: 13F (1938)

PVD: 12F (1938)

ORH: 9F (1936)

BDL: 12F (2000)

BDR: 22F (1993 and 2005)

 

 

 

 

As for beyond the cold shot, the storm system for mid-week remains highly uncertain on model guidance. The chances for a high impact wintry system remain low in my opinion, but cannot be ruled out...way to early to spike any footballs regarding such a complex interaction of streams. Especially since we are dealing with a cutoff low ejecting out of the southwest which is notoriously bad for model guidance.

[Tropopause_Fold]

the nam 2-m temps Will shows above say it all. look at the 32F isotherm offshore. that's ridiculously cold for November. i've seen plenty of mid-winter days when even the higher res models like the nam can't "see" the shape and resultant temp gradient of the coastal areas and consequently allow the 32F contour to cut across land...when in reality it will be offshore.

 

the NAM has ACK below freezing at 1pm on sunday. For Nantucket, this would probably register as about a -8 or -9F around Jan 20th.

[CoastalWx]

BOS may be the trickiest for record low max, I was looking at that earlier. I think it will though.

[CT Rain]

00z NAM has warned a bit with 2M temps from earlier runs today.

[ORH_wxman]

BOS may be the trickiest for record low max, I was looking at that earlier. I think it will though.

 

 

Yes, agreed, they will have the hardest one I think. BDR is by far the easiest...you can almost write that one in ink...35F will get blown away. They'll probably be at 35F by Saturday evening there.

[CoastalWx]

Actually on second thought, BOS may be an

hour or two from doing it. It looks like they may just fall short, but we'll see.

[ORH_wxman]

Actually on second thought, BOS may be an

hour or two from doing it. It looks like they may just fall short, but we'll see.

 

 

00z NAM sped up the front from 18z...more in line with the Euro. It did warm a bit for Sunday afternoon from 18z as Ryan mentioned though still easily cold enough for record low maxes. I don't think Sunday afternoon will be the question...it will be all about Saturday night.

 

That is, unless we see some drastic model failure on 850mb temp output inside of 3 days.

[CoastalWx]

00z NAM sped up the front from 18z...more in line with the Euro. It did warm a bit for Sunday afternoon from 18z as Ryan mentioned though still easily cold enough for record low maxes. I don't think Sunday afternoon will be the question...it will be all about Saturday night.

That is, unless we see some drastic model failure on 850mb temp output inside of 3 days.

Oh yeah Sunday is frigid. No question temps are below 30 even on the coast. Probably mid to upper 20s like you said. I think winds could veer a bit west ahead of the secondary front which may slow the temp drop until fropa. If the front can come through near or just after 4z, then maybe BOS can do

It.

[ROOSTA]

I have not looked, nor do I have access to the tools you guys have but are these dry fronts? Any chance of seeing some flakes?

[mcwx]

 

 

 

 

Would the bottom left graph indicate the trajectory of lake effect snows or is that driven by something different?

 

 

 

 

[CoastalWx]

GFS is trying to develop a heck of a low east of the Carolinas. Looks like the streams are close to phasing at hr 138.

[ice1972]

Would the bottom left graph indicate the trajectory of lake effect snows or is that driven by something different?

Yes.....compare the bottom left 10m winds with the upper right 3hr precip.....note the precip is confined southeast of the lakes generally in the same direction as the winds.....cool stuff

[dryslot]

GFS is trying to develop a heck of a low east of the Carolinas. Looks like the streams are close to phasing at hr 138.

 

992mb inside the BM

 

988mb right on the BM

[CoastalWx]

Looks like the srn s/w really causes this to go to town and wrap back some warmer air aloft. It's a heck of a low though.

[ORH_wxman]

I have not looked, nor do I have access to the tools you guys have but are these dry fronts? Any chance of seeing some flakes?

 

 

We could see some flurries Sunday morning, but not much more than that.

[CoastalWx]

992mb inside the BM

988mb right on the BM

Beast. Probably would flip interior to snow.

[weathafella]

Well to say the gfs changed her tune would be an understatement....

[dryslot]

Beast. Probably would flip interior to snow.

 

Foot hills and mountains look like they would do well

[CoastalWx]

Well to say the gfs changed her tune would be an understatement....

06z will be halfway to Bermuda again.

[CoastalWx]

Foot hills and mountains look like they would do well

And those worried about QPF shall be satiated.

[CT Rain]

06z will be halfway to Bermuda again.

lol based on ensemble support I'd say a storm is a pretty good bet tho

[ORH_wxman]

The event doesn't even start until 132 hours out on the GFS tonight...the operational runs are basically irrelevant for another day or two.

[dryslot]

And those worried about QPF shall be satiated.

 

lol, Just another possible solution, At least the northern stream sw did not out run the southern stream this time

[CoastalWx]

lol based on ensemble support I'd say a storm is a pretty good bet tho

Yeah about all you can really say, still very far out as far as nailing some details. Couldn't come at a better time too. Only the busiest travel day of the year.

[weathafella]

Well if this came to fruition I'll move our travel toTuesday. Potential huge impact with the holiday.

[weathafella]

The entire run is a big bag of wtf. Qpf spigot turned on full blast...lol.

[dryslot]

Dec 5th looks like it could be another period of interest, Over the years we have had some decent storms on that date

[eduggs]

The 0z CMC is stronger and wetter than 12z (with next week's east coast low).  It looks similar to the GFS.  Shaping up to be a decent threat to track.

[powderfreak]

An interesting change on the GFS... seemed to follow the ensembles from 18z.  But this seems decently snowy for the interior, with backside band possibly and cold, NW winds.  The cold air advection on the backside would be impressive with wind.

 

 

 

 

[eduggs]

CMC looks like a good hit for the mountains. 

Based on QPF and temp profiles... looks like it has a swath of 1-2' of snow from NE PA through the Catskills, ENY, most of VT, NH, and N ME.  Nice run for the interior.