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Pre-Thanksgiving Cold, LES/Other Snow Prospects


Geos

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GEM shows a 7" dump for YYZ on Tuesday night

 

Nice...could you please give me the link for the GEM totals?

 

This event deserves its own thread by now. Decent agreement that the eastern part of the sub forum will be getting at least some accumulations out of this. We'll see if the Euro holds on the 12z run. We're basically 48 -60 hours out so things should really get fine tuned the next two runs.

 

Here's the GEM run total precip:

 

post-599-0-20307700-1385310703_thumb.gif

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GEM shows a 7" dump for YYZ on Tuesday night

 

I'm hoping for at least 2-4" out of this. What a great start to the season!

The sound of snowblowers and huffing and puffing fills the air in the subdivision as we dig out.  Not sure why we are doing it, because we can't go anywhere for now......  Here is the result when someone tried it.

 

 

attachicon.gifIMG_2115.JPG

:lmao: Wow. I'm wondering if London will break its November snow record?

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The sound of snowblowers and huffing and puffing fills the air in the subdivision as we dig out.  Not sure why we are doing it, because we can't go anywhere for now......  Here is the result when someone tried it.

 

 

attachicon.gifIMG_2115.JPG

 

Wowww amazing. Thats alot of snow. London got hammered last night, have fun ;) 

 

How much did you measure? 

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I saw that. I see the 2013-14 is kicking off with the Ann Arbor snow magnet fully intact! Even during a terrible NNW flow ARB jackpots lol. Looks like a narrow band of snow snaked down and hit them last night. The rest of us are just dry and bitterly cold.

They got more than I did right here along the lake! Haha. Hopefully we get some lake enhanced snow with tomorrow's system in these parts.

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I saw that. I see the 2013-14 is kicking off with the Ann Arbor snow magnet fully intact! Even during a terrible NNW flow ARB jackpots lol. Looks like a narrow band of snow snaked down and hit them last night. The rest of us are just dry and bitterly cold.

 

Haha I know right?

 

Some lake effect events like we got here last year would be awesome. Those were some intense bands.

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Haha I know right?

 

Some lake effect events like we got here last year would be awesome. Those were some intense bands.

Those were awesome last winter. I had 4 whiteouts from them, quite unusual for this far out. But its comical that the flow last night was so not good for anyone in SE MI, yet a pencil thin band manages to snake into AA.

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I'm hoping for at least 2-4" out of this. What a great start to the season!

:lmao: Wow. I'm wondering if London will break its November snow record?

Just came in from helping to shovel the neighbour's driveway after finishing our own.  We still have a ways to go to break any Nov. records.   I think the record is over 80 cms for November so we would need another 30+ cms for the last few days of the month.   Blue sky now has appeared.  Looks beautiful outside.

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LOT on LES potential later this week

THE MAIN IMPACTS OF THIS PATTERN LOCALLY WILL BE BETTER CHANCES  FOR GOOD LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL IN MY NORTHWESTERN INDIANA  COUNTIES MIDWEEK. THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS OF THE ECMWF AND GEM WOULD  FAVOR A PROLONGED NORTHERLY FLOW DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN WITH HIGHER  INVERSION HEIGHTS...DUE THE COLD MID AND UPPER LEVEL THERMAL  TROUGH UNDER THE DIGGING TROUGH. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED OVER  THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS A GOOD LAKE EFFECT SNOW COULD BE IN  THE WORKS AS THE NORTHERLY FLOW DOWN THE LAKE COULD SET UP A  SINGLE CONVERGENT BAND DOWN THE LAKE INTO NORTHWESTERN INDIANA.  THERMODYNAMICS OVER THE LAKE COULD LEAD TO 850 TO LAKE SURFACE  TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES IN EXCESS OF 20 DEGREES CELSIUS...WITH  EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 10,000 FEET.    THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL COULD LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE   THE FLOW FINALLY BEGINS TO VEER MORE WESTERLY AS A STRONG STORM   SYSTEM LIFTS UP THE EAST COAST. 
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Had a good inch of snow here at Elkhart Dunlap when I woke up this morning.  Everything coated white so beatutifully.  Has melted off the parking lots and sidewalks this afternoon but grassy areas are still covered.  Gorgeous, but since I want to travel from here to NW IN Wed. afternon I want to pay attention to the LES potential downwind of Lake Michigan as referenced in Hoosier's post.

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LOT on LES potential later this week

THE MAIN IMPACTS OF THIS PATTERN LOCALLY WILL BE BETTER CHANCES  FOR GOOD LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL IN MY NORTHWESTERN INDIANA  COUNTIES MIDWEEK. THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS OF THE ECMWF AND GEM WOULD  FAVOR A PROLONGED NORTHERLY FLOW DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN WITH HIGHER  INVERSION HEIGHTS...DUE THE COLD MID AND UPPER LEVEL THERMAL  TROUGH UNDER THE DIGGING TROUGH. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED OVER  THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS A GOOD LAKE EFFECT SNOW COULD BE IN  THE WORKS AS THE NORTHERLY FLOW DOWN THE LAKE COULD SET UP A  SINGLE CONVERGENT BAND DOWN THE LAKE INTO NORTHWESTERN INDIANA.  THERMODYNAMICS OVER THE LAKE COULD LEAD TO 850 TO LAKE SURFACE  TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES IN EXCESS OF 20 DEGREES CELSIUS...WITH  EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 10,000 FEET.    THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL COULD LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE   THE FLOW FINALLY BEGINS TO VEER MORE WESTERLY AS A STRONG STORM   SYSTEM LIFTS UP THE EAST COAST. 

 

Maybe Alek can get a dumping from that!

 

Hit 25° today, with dewpoints staying between 1-3°.

 

That last London picture looks epic! 

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Maybe Alek can get a dumping from that!

 

Hit 25° today, with dewpoints staying between 1-3°.

 

That last London picture looks epic! 

 

I only glanced at things but it seems like the flow would mainly target the Indiana side.  IWX's area could be in for it too.

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I only glanced at things but it seems like the flow would mainly target the Indiana side.  IWX's area could be in for it too.

 

Probably not, but the EURO hinted at it on the 12z run yesterday.

 

I have 2" of the clearest ice you could imagine on my pond. 

 

-----------

 

Snow accumulations through Thanksgiving.

 

post-7389-0-97791600-1385339423_thumb.pn

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I'm curious to know about Chicago and LES on average. Are Chicago's chances generally similar to Toronto's chances in terms of LES events?

 

Probably less than Toronto. At least you can get some LES from Lake Huron. Here it is only from one source.

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I'm curious to know about Chicago and LES on average. Are Chicago's chances generally similar to Toronto's chances in terms of LES events?

 

Elevation plays a big role in LES. Chicago is flat as a board, so it would take a very intense LES band to clobber the city, terrain acts as an agitation device for the moisture.

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Chicago would need an eastern wind whereas Toronto would need a southeastern wind for direct LES. Which happens more often? I feel like SE wind rarely happens here

 

It is weird how Chicago seems to never get decent LES events, then again, Alpena rarely does well either.

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It is weird how Chicago seems to never get decent LES events, then again, Alpena rarely does well either.

 

yeah...for the most part LM is only enhancing snowfall or adding a tad to totals after we get the LP's going up through Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio area....even then it is usually for a smaller window of time

 

Although, maybe once or so a year there can be a decent LES event to follow on the West side of the lake here....

 

If memory serves me correct at least ^^^^ lol

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