Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,610
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

Central PA - Early December

MAG5035

By MAG5035,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
MAG5035

MAG5035

Posted
  • Author
Posted

In the Euro depiction, the active northern stream shortwaves are preventing much sustained confluence at 500 mb that would promote anticyclogenesis in QB and low-level cold air. This also results in a weaker baroclinic zone oriented more perpendicular to the east coast. The SE/SSE flow ahead of the system leads to a broad area of warm air advection and the development of a storm that is elongated and more frontal in nature.

There's also the feedback of the elongated cold air advection on the backside of the system lowering heights and spreading out the vorticity in the meridional direction. In short, this makes it difficult for snowfall to occur outside of a band of lower QPF anafrontal precip on the western edge of the storm.

Definitely agree, the Euro solution taken at face value is quite marginal and probably just a rain event for the Sus Valley, while barely conducive for snow for the central mountains where there is less QPF (AOO/UNV/IPT corridor). Basically the Euro's about where it was a couple days ago with more of a track along the coastline but with the displaced cold air mass.

While i'm on that point, I'm going to present two vendor sources of the Euro snowmap.. and if that's not cool with the mods I'll take them down. But I look and I wonder how in the world are the snow algorithms calculated on some of these different sources. Clearly the AccuPro snow map is the more realistic of the two... but geesh the other one thinks Harrisburgs gettin well over a foot.

And I got this one off of Jb's Twitter...both are to 180 hours (and also 10:1 ratio):

post-1507-0-29605300-1385074979_thumb.pn

Link to comment
Share on other sites
GrandmasterB

GrandmasterB

Posted
Posted

Chasing snowstorms 6+ days out isn't good for your health, fellas. Proceed with caution ...

 

Every year and threat we know not to get our hopes too high too far out, but it’s sorta like rooting for a baseball team.  If you start on opening day, and you win the world series series it’s soooo much sweeter.  Why should this be different?  If we “root” for a storm 8 days out and it hits, awesome.  If not, there’s always the next one.  Here’s to many wins (storms) this year!

 

BTW, enjoy everyone’s contribution to this great regional board!! :thumbsup: 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
EasternUSWX

EasternUSWX

Posted
Posted

Every year and threat we know not to get our hopes too high too far out, but it’s sorta like rooting for a baseball team.  If you start on opening day, and you win the world series series it’s soooo much sweeter.  Why should this be different?  If we “root” for a storm 8 days out and it hits, awesome.  If not, there’s always the next one.  Here’s to many wins (storms) this year!

 

BTW, enjoy everyone’s contribution to this great regional board!! :thumbsup: 

 

 

 

Do you have the bigger photo of your profile picture? I been looking for that funny map. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
JamieOber

JamieOber

Posted
Posted

One thing that I lol at a bit every year here because it's an annual thing...LSV guys, we don't have your climate up here, so saying it's too early to pay attention to storm systems may apply to you to a degree but not up here. We've already had accumulating snow. Besides, with the pattern coming up and the recent colder weather, I'd say up here we're more or less already in winter.

 

I mean, in any year, thinking it might snow on UNV on Nov. 26-27 isn't exactly claiming a UFO will land on the 50 yard line at Beaver Stadium...

Link to comment
Share on other sites
NeffsvilleWx

NeffsvilleWx

Posted
Posted

One thing that I lol at a bit every year here because it's an annual thing...LSV guys, we don't have your climate up here, so saying it's too early to pay attention to storm systems may apply to you to a degree but not up here. We've already had accumulating snow. Besides, with the pattern coming up and the recent colder weather, I'd say up here we're more or less already in winter.

I mean, in any year, thinking it might snow on UNV on Nov. 26-27 isn't exactly claiming a UFO will land on the 50 yard line at Beaver Stadium...

Shut up Jamie, your climate IS stupid.

You're right though, we're more midatlantic than cpa.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
MAG5035

MAG5035

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Either the GFS really sucks or I am never using any other model again. 0Z will be telling. 12Z Euro ens pretty snowy. Average of about 5" for State College. 

 

 

I'd normally be playing the GFS southeast bias card heavily with this type of deal at this range but I also wonder if the progressive theme to the pattern could be playing more into the GFS's wheelhouse over the more wound up Euro... esp after the GFS scored on the busted coastal threat earlier in the month. Should be interesting to watch.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
GrandmasterB

GrandmasterB

Posted
Posted

One thing that I lol at a bit every year here because it's an annual thing...LSV guys, we don't have your climate up here, so saying it's too early to pay attention to storm systems may apply to you to a degree but not up here. We've already had accumulating snow. Besides, with the pattern coming up and the recent colder weather, I'd say up here we're more or less already in winter.

 

I mean, in any year, thinking it might snow on UNV on Nov. 26-27 isn't exactly claiming a UFO will land on the 50 yard line at Beaver Stadium...

 

Yeah, climo is far more unfavorable right now in the far SE corner of CTP's area so it's tough for us but I did cash in on the October 29th 2011 storm so I'm always hopeful. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
canderson

canderson

Posted
Posted

One thing that I lol at a bit every year here because it's an annual thing...LSV guys, we don't have your climate up here, so saying it's too early to pay attention to storm systems may apply to you to a degree but not up here. We've already had accumulating snow. Besides, with the pattern coming up and the recent colder weather, I'd say up here we're more or less already in winter.

 

I mean, in any year, thinking it might snow on UNV on Nov. 26-27 isn't exactly claiming a UFO will land on the 50 yard line at Beaver Stadium...

Oh most definitely. I just meant getting really hng up on model to model runs right now isn't good for the blood pressure, ha.

I had like 9" snow last season, I'm not counting anything until I can photograph it this year for me. Ha.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Jim Marusak

Jim Marusak

Posted
Posted

if anything, the canadian is suggesting a classic path for big snow from PIT and JST/AOO into IPT, AVP, and the Catskills; going by ACY, eastern Long Island, then up the Bay of Fundy and through PEI up towards the Gulf of St Lawrence.

 

you'll have to do some mental subtraction here. but the pre-storm snow totals are t+102 graphic link below:

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/prog/global/2013112200/2013112200_054_G1_east_I_QPFTYPES_sn_102.png

 

and post-storm snow totals would be at T-168 link below

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/prog/global/2013112200/2013112200_054_G1_east_I_QPFTYPES_sn_168.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...