Isotherm Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 To read the outlook, you can go here:http://www.nymetrowe...utlook-2013-14/http://www.lightinthestorm.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Awesome as always Tom. Hit nail on the head in regards to -EPO and a mostly plus +AO/NAO state although I think we'll see a decent period of negative departures during the second half. We'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Very nice write-up Isotherm. Good luck with your forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Best write up this winter's forecast that I've seen so far. I have been thinking about the -EPO for the last three weeks myself, but haven't taken the time to do the research, thank you so much. Isotherm, I have a question for you, I have been thinking about providing a link to Paul Douglas of Weather Nation, if he likes it's he may provide a link to it in his blog that gets published in the Minneapolis Tribune, would you have a problem with that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 21, 2013 Author Share Posted November 21, 2013 Awesome as always Tom. Hit nail on the head in regards to -EPO and a mostly plus +AO/NAO state although I think we'll see a decent period of negative departures during the second half. We'll see what happens. Very nice write-up Isotherm. Good luck with your forecast. Best write up this winter's forecast that I've seen so far. I have been thinking about the -EPO for the last three weeks myself, but haven't taken the time to do the research, thank you so much. Isotherm, I have a question for you, I have been thinking about providing a link to Paul Douglas of Weather Nation, if he likes it's he may provide a link to it in his blog that gets published in the Minneapolis Tribune, would you have a problem with that? Thanks for the kind words guys! Hopefully it works out as expected Minnesota, I appreciate it, and I would not mind that at all. Thank you for that compliment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lorenzo Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Enjoyed reading that, great write up, good luck with the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 21, 2013 Author Share Posted November 21, 2013 Enjoyed reading that, great write up, good luck with the forecast. Thanks Lorenzo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Isotherm, another reason I think you are right with the EPO being a major player is our lack of Indian summer up here. Most years up here once we get get our 1st hard freeze we see temps rebound quite nicely to say around 70°, this year it didn't happen and why didn't it with such a positive AO and week MJO signal? I blame it on the EPO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Great discussion and outlook Isotherm! I learned somethings regarding the EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 22, 2013 Author Share Posted November 22, 2013 Thanks Geos! And I agree Minnesota, the NPAC High likely prevented any maritime Pacific airmass intrusion for the past few weeks. Your flow has been primarily out of Canada for the past month keeping your area cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Fantastic write-up! The format is very readable and flows very professionally too. One question on the snow map. Did the UP of Michigan get left off of snowier by accident. Gonna presume ya, since snow stopping right at the state line would be quite the sight to behold - ha! Thanks again for the nice work (especially in a year that's looking positive for my region). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Nice write up Isotherm! Enjoyed reading it. My thoughts are not too far from your own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 23, 2013 Author Share Posted November 23, 2013 Fantastic write-up! The format is very readable and flows very professionally too. One question on the snow map. Did the UP of Michigan get left off of snowier by accident. Gonna presume ya, since snow stopping right at the state line would be quite the sight to behold - ha! Thanks again for the nice work (especially in a year that's looking positive for my region). Nice write up Isotherm! Enjoyed reading it. My thoughts are not too far from your own. Thanks guys! And yes rogue, the UP should be in snowier than normal, didn't even notice that. Sharp cut-offs this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Nice work. Appreciate you taking the time to write up your thoughts and post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 23, 2013 Author Share Posted November 23, 2013 Nice work. Appreciate you taking the time to write up your thoughts and post. Thanks Andy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 29, 2014 Author Share Posted March 29, 2014 VERIFICATION The resultant 500mb pattern for the Dec-Jan-Feb period 2013-14 looked like this: It was similar to the analog package with the mean trough centered near the Mid-west, and ridges along both the West and East Coasts of the USA. The expectation for an overall positive NAO, positive AO, near neutral PNA, and negative EPO, generally verified very well. The negative EPO provided a one month period of very cold weather on the East Coast from about Jan 20th-Feb 20th. The flaw in the forecast was that the center of the cold anomalies, as predicted to be in the northern Plains, was slightly further east, near the Western Lakes. This meant the entire pattern (ridge/trough orientation) was slightly east of forecast, and so the baroclinic zone generally aligned itself just east of the I-95 corridor rather than along it. The subtle difference at H5 resulted in meaningful differences at the surface, as the I-95 corridor ended up being colder and snowier than I anticipated. With that being said, the expectation of significant moderation in temps toward the east and west coasts compared to the Mid-west was correct. The record cold was confined to the Lakes/Mid-west. Precipitation ended up similar to forecast, with drier than normal conditions for the West and much of the South, while wetter than normal prevailed from the Lakes into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. In summation, this winter’s forecast went well in the overall sense in my opinion, with the teleconnection outlooks verifying (-EPO, +NAO, +AO, etc). The NYC metro area generally finished with slightly colder than normal DJF period, as per the temperature departure map above. This was slightly colder than expected. Snowfall is always the most difficult factor and will be weighted lighted, but it was much snowier than anticipated for the immediate east coast. The expected heavy snows for the interior Northeast aligned near I-95 frequently. My assessment of this winter’s outlook, 2013-14, is a grade of B/B- overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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