Geos Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Time for its own thread. Go...! Looks like rain, t-storms, wind, and maybe some snow for parts of the sub forum. GFS predicted moisture through 12z the 18th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Pretty good model agreement on taking the surface low down into the 980-984 mb range as it moves toward Lake Superior. Gradient winds look strong in the warm sector and think there is potential for wind headlines on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 I'm looking forward to this weekend to see what the wave heights are being forecast for Lake Superior from the Wave Watch III model, it could be very impressive indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 14, 2013 Author Share Posted November 14, 2013 925 mb forecasted winds at midnight Sunday. Hoosier - it would make sense to put in observations in the title too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 14, 2013 Author Share Posted November 14, 2013 Looks like 60-65°, but a washout of a weekend, except maybe early morning Saturday. Probably be able to crack the meter mark in total water this year by Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Models indicating some gust potential of 45+ mph outside of thunderstorms here on Sunday with some potential to approach high wind warning criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Models indicating some gust potential of 45+ mph outside of thunderstorms here on Sunday with some potential to approach high wind warning criteria. Was looking at that for up here too. I wanted to get out and golf given how warm it's going to be but it's no fun at all with wind gusts of 40mph. At that point it's a waste of money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Was looking at that for up here too. I wanted to get out and golf given how warm it's going to be but it's no fun at all with wind gusts of 40mph. At that point it's a waste of money. Might be a good day for the driving range if you want to crack 400 yrds Would not be surprised to see wind warnings in Ontario again, NAM showing potential for 50mph+ gusts up around here. Euro takes the system down to 972mb on the latest run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxhstn74 Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 Deep Low Pressure System Likely In The Great Lakes Later Sunday Into Monday http://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/2013/11/deep-low-pressure-system-likely-in.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 00z NAM came in even faster with the system. Severe looks quite far away from here now, so I'm starting to pay attention to the wind potential behind the front Sunday afternoon. Would love to chase in November for the 1st time, but I'm not driving 300 miles east at storms that will be moving east at 60mph lol. NAM bombs the surface low below 980mb over Lake Superior during Sunday afternoon. Could see some 40-50mph gradient gusts over Iowa and northern IL by later Sunday into Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 15, 2013 Author Share Posted November 15, 2013 Heaviest rainfall corridors for this storm per the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 Sure seems hard to get a storm to slow down and bomb over the MW this season. This is at least the second one this season that doesn't really get bombing until it reaches the upper lakes, and then peaks well north of the lakes. The progressive nature of some of these stronger storms through this area is starting to get old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 15, 2013 Author Share Posted November 15, 2013 Sure seems hard to get a storm to slow down and bomb over the MW this season. This is at least the second one this season that doesn't really get bombing until it reaches the upper lakes, and then peaks well north of the lakes. The progressive nature of some of these stronger storms through this area is starting to get old. Need some blocking/-NAO to slow systems down trying to progress northwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 MAV has 72 here on Sunday which is the warmest run yet I believe between it and its cousin MEX. MET has 68. Should feel nice with screaming southerly winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 00z NAM came in even faster with the system. Severe looks quite far away from here now, so I'm starting to pay attention to the wind potential behind the front Sunday afternoon. Would love to chase in November for the 1st time, but I'm not driving 300 miles east at storms that will be moving east at 60mph lol. NAM bombs the surface low below 980mb over Lake Superior during Sunday afternoon. Could see some 40-50mph gradient gusts over Iowa and northern IL by later Sunday into Sunday night. Yeah but the good thing about around here is that it's basically like the Plains. Absolutely no hills and lots of farmland in NW Ohio and a few hills in NE Indiana but not much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 Looks to me to be a Halloween repeater..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 Looks to me to be a Halloween repeater..... Maybe even gustier. Gettting some pretty incredible 850 winds off the 18Z NAM over YYZ Sunday night. 70-80 kts! Hurricane force gusts if any of those mix down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 I'm very surprised at how not a lot of people are on the forums talking about this severe potential ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 I'm very surprised at how not a lot of people are on the forums talking about this severe potential ... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41679-major-severe-weather-outbreak-possible-november-17/page-5#entry2475786 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 I'm very surprised at how not a lot of people are on the forums talking about this severe potential ... There is a thread about it, by November, who really gets excited about severe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 There is a thread about it, by November, who really gets excited about severe? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted November 15, 2013 Share Posted November 15, 2013 There is a thread about it, by November, who really gets excited about severe? Perhaps if it was thunder snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 There is a thread about it, by November, who really gets excited about severe? Perhaps if it was thunder snow. Ha. Well a T-storm is nice to see, but it just means the pattern isn't conducive for winter weather for that particular day.... Better than nothing I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 There is a thread about it, by November, who really gets excited about severe? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 16, 2013 Author Share Posted November 16, 2013 NAM and GFS getting juicier for N IL, south central and SE MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Just doing a quick comparison between the 00z GFS and 00Z NAM, and even comparing to the 18Z runs, and not only am I thinking like several people in here that d1 severe may have to go slight risk in an area inside a line containing CID/ISW/GRB/ORD/SPI/STL, but d2 may have to go from ISW to GRB, APN, CYVV, CYOW, ART, ELM, UNV, JST, HTS, JKL, BNA, MEM, ARG, RFD for the slight risk, and moderate risk (wind gusts) for an area contained by a line from EVV, IND, FWA, TOL, DTW, BAX, MBS, RQB, ETB, SPI, MWA. that's just my guess, I'm sure others here have differing opinions, and please feel free to make changes. but if you don't want to go moderate risk for day 2, i could also see a 30% wind prob in place of the mod risk for day 2. thoughts, with SPC coming out in ~ 2 hours with the new d1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 I won't be surprised with a day 2 mod. However it's not a lock just yet. They may wait to day 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 I won't be surprised with a day 2 mod. However it's not a lock just yet. They may wait to day 1. I would be very surprised if they didn't upgrade to moderate for day 2. At the least we're looking at widespread severe for wind, which definitely supports a mod. I expect a "beefily" worded moderate/hatched day2 in the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 Just doing a quick comparison between the 00z GFS and 00Z NAM, and even comparing to the 18Z runs, and not only am I thinking like several people in here that d1 severe may have to go slight risk in an area inside a line containing CID/ISW/GRB/ORD/SPI/STL, but d2 may have to go from ISW to GRB, APN, CYVV, CYOW, ART, ELM, UNV, JST, HTS, JKL, BNA, MEM, ARG, RFD for the slight risk, and moderate risk (wind gusts) for an area contained by a line from EVV, IND, FWA, TOL, DTW, BAX, MBS, RQB, ETB, SPI, MWA. that's just my guess, I'm sure others here have differing opinions, and please feel free to make changes. but if you don't want to go moderate risk for day 2, i could also see a 30% wind prob in place of the mod risk for day 2. thoughts, with SPC coming out in ~ 2 hours with the new d1? You should post this in the severe thread. I'm assuming part of the LOT CWA (I work there) is going to be in the MDT for Day 2, with most if not all of the rest of the CWA in the Slight. Havent looked closely enough at tomorrow night, but it seems that trends support your thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 I won't be surprised with a day 2 mod. However it's not a lock just yet. They may wait to day 1. I would be very surprised if they didn't upgrade to moderate for day 2. At the least we're looking at widespread severe for wind, which definitely supports a mod. I expect a "beefily" worded moderate/hatched day2 in the next few hours. Completely agree. Also as an aside, even if the severe threat is completely east of your area, you'll have the probably at least advisory criteria winds behind the front to look forward to. 18z NAM had 10 mb/3hr pressure rises late afternoon/early evening and 925 mb winds up to 50 kt or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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