Winter 2013-14 medium range discussion

[donsutherland1]

January 16-23, 2014 Thoughts:

 

This period will likely begin with a January thaw still underway in a large part of the eastern half of North America. However, the ensembles are suggesting a classic PNA+/AO- pattern could develop, even as the EPO is neutral. That kind of pattern typically leads to warmth in the West and cold in the East.

 

The GFS ensembles are pointing to such an outcome. The ECMWF ensembles are, as well. A big question concerns whether the signficant cold anomalies that are currently building over Eurasia could be tapped by cross-polar flow to produce another notable Arctic outbreak in a winter that has seen one such outbreak in early December and two in early January. The 12z operational ECMWF is quite bullish on that outcome and it led the way in forecasting the current Arctic surge that produced some of the coldest readings in the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Mid-Atlantic region in 5-10 years, and in some places since 1994.

 

Below are the maps for the teleconnection cases (North America and Europe), as well as the GFS ensembles. It does appear that northern Europe will finally be turning colder than normal near mid-month. In the meantime, cold could return following what will likely be a 7 to perhaps 10-day January thaw in the East.

 

 

Overall, the teleconnection cases fit the kind of anomalies I expect to see in North America quite well given the pronounced dual blocking regime that is presently forecast. The risk of some severe cold can't be ruled out, especially if the EPO tries to go negative.

 

Finally, a few of the teleconnection cases preceded the development of snowy patterns. Those cases included mid-January 1961, late January 1983, and just after mid-January 2005. Moreover, there has been some support for normal to above normal precipitation along the East Coast on some of the recent runs of the GFS ensembles.

 

In sum, the cold appears likely to return. Along with the cold, there might be renewed opportunities for snowfall, particularly in the part of the U.S. (Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and southern New England) that has received above average snowfall to date.

[Jonger]

It was basically the coldest day St. Louis has seen in almost 25 years. Just because it didn't verify at STL quite as cold as some models indicated doesn't mean the cold didn't deserve some hype. The actual daytime temps in the area (what people feel and notice the most) were highly unusual and extreme.

 

Also, you are comparing an extreme event in January to an extreme event in March. In terms of absolutes, the extreme cold this time of year (January is the coldest time of year) is much more meaningful to the average person than extremes in March (when it can get much warmer in the summer).

 

So of course the media is going to hype a severe cold wave in January more than an extreme bout of warmth in March. People care more about the former.

 

March, April, Oct, November are the 4 months where extremes on either end of the spectrum get less attention. Those are transition months that can host a wide array of weather, but rarely are extreme temps in those months dangerous.

[SnowGoose69]

Yea, there is a big chunk of KNYC data missing from there.  Not to derail thread but I brought it up to the site a couple years ago and they said that's just the data they had.  If anyone knows where to get historical hourly data from NYC going back pretty far, please post!

 

I don't believe there is hourly data available for NYC prior to 6/1/96 when the ASOS was commissioned...prior to that they may have had hourly obs at some point but it did not make it onto any site that I am aware of.

[donsutherland1]

January 7, 2014 saw many record low maximum temperatures established and some of the coldest high temperatures since 1994 in numerous cities.

 

Select High Temperatures:

 

Allentown: 8°: Broke daily record of 14° (1942); Coldest since 1/19/1994 (2°)

Atlanta: 26°: Coldest since 2/4/1996 (18°)

Baltimore: 16°: Broke daily record of 22° (1996); Coldest since 1/20/1994 (16°)

Birmingham: 24°: Coldest since 2/4/1996 (18°)

Charleston, SC: 33°: Tied daily record of 33° (1988); Coldest since 1/3/2002 (33°)

Charleston, WV: 11°: Broke daily record of 17° (1942); Coldest since 2/4/1996 (10°)

Cleveland: 4°: Broke daily record of 5° (1912); Coldest since 1/16/2009 (2°)

Columbia: 30°: Broke daily record of 31° (1988); Coldest since 1/19/1994 (29°)

Detroit: -1°: Broke daily record of 3° (1942); Coldest since 1/19/1994 (-4°)

Erie: 4°: Broke daily record of 7° (1912); Coldest since 1/19/1994 (-4°)

Harrisburg: 10°: Broke daily record of 16° (1942); Coldest since 1/19/1994 (-1°)

New Orleans: 36°: Broke daily record of 38° (1970); Coldest since 1/8/2010 (35°)

New York City:

…JFK: 20°: Broke daily record of 21° (1988); Coldest since 1/3/2014 (19°)

…LGA: 20°: Tied daily record of 20° (1942); Coldest since 1/3/2014 (19°)

Newark: 16°: Broke daily record of 19° (1996); Coldest since 1/10/2004 (16°)

Norfolk: 26°: Broke daily record of 28° (1878); Coldest since 1/16/2009 (24°)

Philadelphia: 13°: Broke daily record of 20° (1878); Coldest since 1/19/1994 (6°)

Pittsburgh: 4°: Broke daily record of 12° (1912); Coldest since 1/19/1994 (-3°)

Richmond: 22°: Coldest since 1/25/2004 (22°)

Savannah: 31°: Broke daily record of 37° (1988); Coldest since 12/23/1989 (22°)

Scranton: 6°: Broke daily record of 14° (1942); Coldest since 1/19/1994 (-2°)

Toledo: 1°: Broke daily record of 6° (1912); Coldest since 1/19/1994 (-1°)

Washington, DC:

…DCA: 21°: Coldest since 1/16/2009 (18°)

…IAD: 18°: Broke daily record of 21° (1996); Coldest since 1/16/2009 (17°)

Wilmington, DE: 13°: Broke daily record of 21° (1942); Coldest since 1/19/1994 (4°)

Youngstown: 2°: Broke daily record of 13° (1971); Coldest since 1/19/1994 (-6°)

[Harry]

January 7, 2014 saw many record low maximum temperatures established and some of the coldest high temperatures since 1994 in numerous cities.

 

Select High Temperatures:

 

Allentown: 8°: Broke daily record of 14° (1942); Coldest since 1/19/1994 (2°)

Atlanta: 26°: Coldest since 2/4/1996 (18°)

Baltimore: 16°: Broke daily record of 22° (1996); Coldest since 1/20/1994 (16°)

Birmingham: 24°: Coldest since 2/4/1996 (18°)

Charleston, SC: 33°: Tied daily record of 33° (1988); Coldest since 1/3/2002 (33°)

Charleston, WV: 11°: Broke daily record of 17° (1942); Coldest since 2/4/1996 (10°)

Cleveland: 4°: Broke daily record of 5° (1912); Coldest since 1/16/2009 (2°)

Columbia: 30°: Broke daily record of 31° (1988); Coldest since 1/19/1994 (29°)

Detroit: -1°: Broke daily record of 3° (1942); Coldest since 1/19/1994 (-4°)

Erie: 4°: Broke daily record of 7° (1912); Coldest since 1/19/1994 (-4°)

Harrisburg: 10°: Broke daily record of 16° (1942); Coldest since 1/19/1994 (-1°)

New Orleans: 36°: Broke daily record of 38° (1970); Coldest since 1/8/2010 (35°)

New York City:

…JFK: 20°: Broke daily record of 21° (1988); Coldest since 1/3/2014 (19°)

…LGA: 20°: Tied daily record of 20° (1942); Coldest since 1/3/2014 (19°)

Newark: 16°: Broke daily record of 19° (1996); Coldest since 1/10/2004 (16°)

Norfolk: 26°: Broke daily record of 28° (1878); Coldest since 1/16/2009 (24°)

Philadelphia: 13°: Broke daily record of 20° (1878); Coldest since 1/19/1994 (6°)

Pittsburgh: 4°: Broke daily record of 12° (1912); Coldest since 1/19/1994 (-3°)

Richmond: 22°: Coldest since 1/25/2004 (22°)

Savannah: 31°: Broke daily record of 37° (1988); Coldest since 12/23/1989 (22°)

Scranton: 6°: Broke daily record of 14° (1942); Coldest since 1/19/1994 (-2°)

Toledo: 1°: Broke daily record of 6° (1912); Coldest since 1/19/1994 (-1°)

Washington, DC:

…DCA: 21°: Coldest since 1/16/2009 (18°)

…IAD: 18°: Broke daily record of 21° (1996); Coldest since 1/16/2009 (17°)

Wilmington, DE: 13°: Broke daily record of 21° (1942); Coldest since 1/19/1994 (4°)

Youngstown: 2°: Broke daily record of 13° (1971); Coldest since 1/19/1994 (-6°)

 

 

This is for here Don..

 

Looks like the high will be 1 after a low of -11 at KBTL aka Battle Creek, MI.. Gives us a daily average of -5 which is a new record for the date and the 2nd coldest ever for the month of January.. The high temp of 1 also set a new daily record and ties the record for coldest Jan high temp. The low temp was a daily record as well.. The old record was -9. Not too shabby.. Records go back to 1897..

[bluewave]

lol thanks that is ugly.

I'd love to see that go back to 1869(official records) or 1830 something(full unofficial records.)

 

From 1970 to 2000 only two years went back to back without a low below 0F.  Then after 1999 it just stopped.

Although we reached 0F in 2009.

 

But many years in the 2000s were not even close.

 

It looks like it tied to the PDO and EPO.

 

But a mix of modern UHI and AGW probably helped the record go 13 years. 

 

We may break 0F again this winter the way things are going if we can get some more deep cold during snow pack.

 

Technically with snowpack we can go below zero into early March.

 

But Feb 20th is about the cut off for being semi realistic without epic ideal conditions.

 

The late 90's on really stands out as seeing the lowest number of 0 degree or below days at St.Louis for the long term 

observational record there.

 

[donsutherland1]

Select Low Temperature Records for January 8:

 

Islip: 7° (broke daily record of 13° from 1986)

White Plains: 5° (tied daily record of 5° set in 1968 and tied in 1973)

[vortmax]

Select Low Temperature Records for January 8:

 

Islip: 7° (broke daily record of 13° from 1986)

White Plains: 5° (tied daily record of 5° set in 1968 and tied in 1973)

 

You missed record low maxes in Rochester and Buffalo on your list...

 

ROC:  5 in 2014 / 8 in 1886  - 128 year record broke!

 

BUF: 9 in 2014 / 9 in 1942 &1912

 

[donsutherland1]

You missed record low maxes in Rochester and Buffalo on your list...

 

ROC:  5 in 2014 / 8 in 1886  - 128 year record broke!

 

BUF: 9 in 2014 / 9 in 1942 &1912

 

Thanks for the additions. My list wasn't all inclusive. The Rochester high is particularly impressive, as the last time that city has such a low maximum reading was January 15, 2004 (4°).

[Jonger]

lol thanks that is ugly.

I'd love to see that go back to 1869(official records) or 1830 something(full unofficial records.)

From 1970 to 2000 only two years went back to back without a low below 0F. Then after 1999 it just stopped.

Although we reached 0F in 2009.

But many years in the 2000s were not even close.

It looks like it tied to the PDO and EPO.

But a mix of modern UHI and AGW probably helped the record go 13 years.

We may break 0F again this winter the way things are going if we can get some more deep cold during snow pack.

Technically with snowpack we can go below zero into early March.

But Feb 20th is about the cut off for being semi realistic without epic ideal conditions.

The late 90's on really stands out as seeing the lowest number of 0 degree or below days at St.Louis for the long term

observational record there.

How many total years has STL failed to hit 0 or below since 1880?

I wonder if you changed the threshold to +5℉ from 1950 onward to account for UHI what the number would be.

[donsutherland1]

How many total years has STL failed to hit 0 or below since 1880? I wonder if you changed the threshold to +5℉ from 1950 onward to account for UHI what the number would be.

 

Years with no readings < 0°:

1880-Present: 53 (once every 2.5 years)

1990-Present: 19 (once every 1.3 years)

2000-Present: 14 (once every 1.1 years)

 

Years with no readings 5° or Below:

1950-Present: 6 (once every 10.8 years)

1990-Present: 5 (once every 5.0 years)

2000-Present: 3 (once every 5.0 years)

[WEATHER53]

When you break a number of records in a number of cities then you have achieved history. Much of the eastern 1/2 of the nation was as cold as it has been since 1994. this did not exceed 1994 nor really match it but it did not have to to become "historical" and the area coverage was very impressive.

[ayuud11]

Hey Don,BUF has surpassed last winter's low snowfall total of 58.8" and is now up to 62.5".That's 19.9" above normal to date.

[donsutherland1]

Hey Don,BUF has surpassed last winter's low snowfall total of 58.8" and is now up to 62.5".That's 19.9" above normal to date.

I don't think this is too surprising. From earlier in this thread, I had noted the connection to December snowfall.

 

Looking westward to Buffalo, such years have seen 50% with 80" or more seasonal snowfall in Buffalo and 50% less than 80" seasonal snowfall.

 

For the winters with less than 70" snowfall: December snowfall: < 20" (4/4 cases)

For the winters with less than 80" snowfall: December snowfall: < 25" (5/6 cases)

For the winters with 80" or more snowfall: December snowfall: 25" or more (5/6 cases)

For the winters with 100" or more snowfall: December snowfall: 25" or more (4/4 cases)

 

Buffalo's December snowfall came to 28.5".

[bluewave]

While this Arctic outbreak didn't result in a new state record low like we saw in

2009 in the Midwest or Northeast, it did feature a colder week overall than

was experienced back in January 2009. But you can see how the cold was well

behind 1994.

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/car/News_Items/2009-02-10_item001.htm

 

2014

 

 

2009

 

 

1994

 

[pazzo83]

Wow.  It's not even close to 94.

[tacoman25]

Wow.  It's not even close to 94.

 

It was a quicker moving air mass. The peak cold in many places was close to 1994.

[ORH_wxman]

It was a quicker moving air mass. The peak cold in many places was close to 1994.

 

 

'94 ws actually two outbreaks seperated only a 2-3 days apart. There was a winter storm that moved through the OH valley and northeast on the 17th and the next outbreak came in behind it.  

[bluewave]

It was a quicker moving air mass. The peak cold in many places was close to 1994.

 

The peak cold was weaker this time around as several cities and states set their all

time or close to coldest temperatures on record in January 1994.

[ayuud11]

I don't think this is too surprising. From earlier in this thread, I had noted the connection to December snowfall.

 

Looking westward to Buffalo, such years have seen 50% with 80" or more seasonal snowfall in Buffalo and 50% less than 80" seasonal snowfall.

 

For the winters with less than 70" snowfall: December snowfall: < 20" (4/4 cases)

For the winters with less than 80" snowfall: December snowfall: < 25" (5/6 cases)

For the winters with 80" or more snowfall: December snowfall: 25" or more (5/6 cases)

For the winters with 100" or more snowfall: December snowfall: 25" or more (4/4 cases)

 

Buffalo's December snowfall came to 28.5".

Thanks for the stats Don,with the lake almost frozen will see if BUF can get above seasonal snowfall just by synoptic snowfall..

[The_Global_Warmer]

the 00z GFS and EURO both look nasty in the day 8-10 range with that death vortex.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

The 0z European apparently shows severely cold conditions coming back to the east for mid and late January followed by an early February torch.

[donsutherland1]

January 11-12, 2014 Warm Shot...

 

The GFS ensembles continue to point to a brief push of very warm air into New England tomorrow and into Sunday morning in northern New England. The GFS ensembles show a large area of temperatures of 1.5-2.0 standard deviations or more above normal and a small area of 2.5 standard deviations above normal. This would equate to readings reaching well into the 50s and perhaps just above 60° in southern New England and 40s to perhaps low 50s in some parts of northern New England.

 

 

This very warm weather, with perhaps a second shot early next week, will likely be short-lived.

[WxMidwest]

Using the  closest 10 Analog Global Wind Oscillation Analogs, This is what the pattern should look like from Jan 9th-31st, 2014...

 

 

Likely be posting more, in the future.

[GaWx]

Folks,

 When I last posted about this in Dec., the strat. was cool. However, the strat. has been warming per the attached. At 1 mb, it has risen to ~+10C anom. (orange) as of 1/3. It has risen there at ~3C/day since 1/1 (+4 to +10). At 2 mb, it has risen from -1C to +7C or 4C/day since 1/1. At 5 mb, it has risen from -5 to +3C in the last 2 days or 4C/day. It still is nowhere near where it needs to get to be noteworthy. Based on the past, it would be best if it warmed to +28 or warmer (brown and gray) to put it solidly into the strong SSW cat. At the rate of 4C/day, it would take about 6-7 more days to get there should that rate continue. Based on this and past durations (usually it takes no more than 7-10 days to reach peak heat), we should know by ~1/10 if this is likely going to reach into the solidly strong SSW event cat.

 

 Link: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_ANOM_JFM_NH_2014.gif

 

 

 

 Past strong SSW's have had periods of at least 8C/day of warming. Here's one example from 1/2009, which warmed 8C/day for 4 days to get it to +32+ anom. (tiny area of gray near 10 mb; brown is +28-32):

 

 

 

 No dice. This one crapped out as wasn't even close to a SSW:

 

[DaculaWeather]

Here it is zoomed in a little. And you're correct, started with a bang but never followed through. 

 

Temp

 

 

 

Anomaly

 

You can see here that the upper level wind changed very little except for the very highest level, and the EPV has no northward component to it. 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

A SSW may have caused the OPI and SAI to fail hard.  Amazing.

[donsutherland1]

Some morning thoughts...

 

1. The recent warmth was well-modeled. In Boston, Caribou, Concord, New York City, and Portland, readings all peaked 1.5 to 2.5 standard deviations above normal. This morning's high temperatures of 44° in Caribou and 51° in Portland were the 2nd and 3rd warmest readings on record for 1/12 in those cities.

 

2. Similar magnitude warmth could occur across northern New England into parts of Quebec tomorrow.

 

3. In the longer range, there are some indications on the guidance that the EPO, which has been positive 9 of the last 15 days, could again go to negative. However, the AO could return to positive values. The PNA could remain generally positive.

 

Such a pattern could result in cooler readings in the eastern third to half of the U.S., excepting Florida and perhaps the Gulf Coast, in the upcoming week and perhaps the last week of the month, as well. Some guidance suggests a bout of severe cold similar to the beginning of December and beginning of January, but there's enough uncertainty to be cautious about that idea. Regardless, snowfall prospect for the Great Lakes out to the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions could increase. Those areas have already enjoyed above normal snowfall to date and they appear to remain on course for a snowy winter.

[donsutherland1]

FWIW, 3 of the 11-day objective analogs from the GFS ensembles saw snowfall in a large part of the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas within 7 or fewer days of those analog dates and two saw at least some snowfall westward into the Great Lakes region. The cases in question are 2/9/1996, 1/20/2005, and 2/9/2006. Hence, as the colder pattern redevelops, opportunities for snowfall should exist, particularly in the areas that have already seen above normal snowfall to date (Great Lakes, northern Mid-Atlantic, and southern New England areas). 

[donsutherland1]

Some morning thoughts...

 

1. ENSO Region 3.4 has continued to cool. In fact, for the week centered around January 8, the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C. This cooling, which is in line with the superior-performing statistical ENSO models that had all but ruled out even borderline El Niño conditions toward the end of meteorological winter all but eliminates that prospect.

 

2. The ENSO developments will have implications for February. Odds of a colder than normal February across the CONUS, particularly the northern tier have increased. In contrast, had ENSO been shifting toward borderline El Niño conditions, one might have seen less cold during February, except across the southern CONUS where a more active subtropical jet resulted in greater precipitation and lower overall readings.

 

3. The ensembles are now showing the return of a familiar "friend" this winter--the EPO ridge. This development also increases the probability that January will finish colder than normal and February could start colder than normal.