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Winter 2013-14 medium range discussion


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Just before midnight, the lowest temperatures for January 6 included:

 

Atlanta: 12° (coldest since 1/16/2009 when the temperature fell to 12°)

Baltimore: 8° (coldest since 1/4/2014 when the temperature fell to 6°)

Birmingham: 13° (coldest since 1/16/2009 when the temperature fell to 12°)

Chicago: -16° (broke daily record of -14° from 1884 & 1988; coldest since 1/16/2009

when the temperature fell to -18°)

Cincinnati: -5° (coldest since 1/22/2011 when the temperature fell to -8°)

Cleveland: -11° (broke daily record of -9° from 1884; coldest since 1/16/2009 when the

   temperature fell to -13°)

Columbus: -7° (coldest since 1/17/2009 when the temperature fell to -11°)

Dayton: -10° (broke daily record of -8° from 1924; coldest since 1/16/2009 when the

   temperature fell to -14°)

Des Moines: -12° (coldest since 12/24/2013 when the temperature fell to -14°)

Detroit: -14° (broke daily record of -7° from 1924; coldest since 1/16/2009 when the

temperature fell to -15°)

Harrisburg: 6° (coldest since 1/5/2014 when the temperature fell to 6°)

Houston: 27° (coldest since 2/11/2011 when the temperature fell to 24°)

Indianapolis: -15° (coldest since 1/21/1994 when the temperature fell to -16°)

Kansas City: -11° (coldest since 2/3/2011 when the temperature fell to -12°)

Little Rock: 12° (coldest since 2/11/2011 when the temperature fell to 10°)

Louisville: -3° (coldest since 1/31/2004 when the temperature fell to -5°)

Minneapolis-St Paul: -23° (coldest since 1/30/2004 when the temperature fell to -24°)

Nashville: 4° (coldest since 1/24/2003 when the temperature fell to 2°)

New Orleans: 28° (coldest since 1/14/2011 when the temperature fell to 28°)

Pittsburgh: -7° (broke daily record of -5° from 1942; coldest since 1/17/2009 when the

temperature fell to -10°)

Savannah: 27° (coldest since 2/18/2013 when the temperature fell to 26°)

St. Louis: -8° (coldest since 2/3/1996 when the temperature fell to -12°)

Toledo: -15° (broke daily record of -14° from 1884; coldest since 1/19/1994 when the

   temperature fell to -18°)

Washington, DC: 12° (coldest since 1/17/2009 when the temperature fell to 8°)

 

Low Maximum Temperatures:

Chicago: -2° (broke daily record of -1° from 1912; coldest since 2/3/1996 when the high

temperature was -5°)

Houston: 36° (broke daily record of 38° from 1971; coldest since 2/4/2011 when the high

   Temperature was 31°)

Louisville: 19° (lowest since 1/8/2010 when the high temperature was 19°)

Minneapolis-St. Paul: -12° (lowest since 2/2/1996 when the high temperature was -17°)

New Orleans: 40° (broke daily record of 46° from 1972; coldest since 2/3/2011 when the

High temperature was 39°)

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Thanks for putting that list together Don. Just wanted to point out a quick correction for Chicago, although the temperature fell to -3 by the 6z ob at ORD last night, actually came back up a degree between midnight and 1203 am last night, so the high for the day ended up being -2.

Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk

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Thanks for putting that list together Don. Just wanted to point out a quick correction for Chicago, although the temperature fell to -3 by the 6z ob at ORD last night, actually came back up a degree between midnight and 1203 am last night, so the high for the day ended up being -2.

Sent from my SCH-I535

Thanks for the correction. I've fixed it. I'll probably make adjustments for the daily lows where needed this morning.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
704 AM CST TUE JAN 7 2014

TXZ229>233-239>246-071500-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-WEBB-DUVAL-JIM WELLS-
KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COTULLA...CALLIHAM...CROSS...
LOMA ALTA...TILDEN...GEORGE WEST...THREE RIVERS...BEEVILLE...
GOLIAD...LAREDO...FREER...BENAVIDES...SAN DIEGO...ALICE...
ORANGE GROVE...KINGSVILLE...CORPUS CHRISTI...PORTLAND...
INGLESIDE...ARANSAS PASS...SINTON...MATHIS...ROCKPORT...REFUGIO...
WOODSBORO
704 AM CST TUE JAN 7 2014

...LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...

AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN...LIGHT SLEET...AND EVEN SOME LIGHT SNOW HAVE
BEEN IMPACTING PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE OF MORE
HOURS UNTIL TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM. NO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE BREVITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION...BUT A LIGHT DUSTING OF SLEET MAY COVER VEHICLES
AND ELEVATED SURFACE. SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...BUT ISOLATED SLICK SPOTS MAY DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING
ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

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St. Louis ended up at 2F yesterday.  The media was touting the guarenteed first Sub 0F high in a long time.  However it wasn't UAH. Most places around the immediate metro reached -1 to 2F.

 

Winds really screwed anything close to being historic.

 

The media hyped coldest in 25 years for days. Not even close.

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St. Louis ended up at 2F yesterday.  The media was touting the guarenteed first Sub 0F high in a long time.  However it wasn't UAH. Most places around the immediate metro reached -1 to 2F.

 

Winds really screwed anything close to being historic.

 

The media hyped coldest in 25 years for days. Not even close.

 

 

STL did reach their lowest temperature in 18 years at -8F. The high of 2F at STL tied the high of 2F in January 1994. The last time a high at STL was colder than yesterday was in December 1989 when they had a high temperature of -1F...just over 24 years ago.

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STL did reach their lowest temperature in 18 years at -8F. The high of 2F at STL tied the high of 2F in January 1994. The last time a high at STL was colder than yesterday was in December 1989 when they had a high temperature of -1F...just over 24 years ago.

 

The hype was way beyond the reality.

 

The snow was more historic than the temps.

Multiple cities outsdie of StL just SE had their 2nd or highest single event snow totals and single day snow totals on record.

 

 

The -8F was even a record low.

 

The hype for this was 100000000 times more than anything from March of 2012 or any other time when records were actually crushed.

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The hype was way beyond the reality.

 

The snow was more historic than the temps.

Multiple cities outsdie of StL just SE had their 2nd or highest single event snow totals and single day snow totals on record.

 

 

The -8F was even a record low.

 

The hype for this was 100000000 times more than anything from March of 2012 or any other time when records were actually crushed.

 

How many people died from the March warmth?

 

99.99999% of the general public would love for the March warmth to be an annual event.

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The hype was way beyond the reality.

 

The snow was more historic than the temps.

Multiple cities outsdie of StL just SE had their 2nd or highest single event snow totals and single day snow totals on record.

 

 

The -8F was even a record low.

 

The hype for this was 100000000 times more than anything from March of 2012 or any other time when records were actually crushed.

 

 

Sounds like your problem is the media interpretation and not the actual nature of the cold. It was indeed STL's coldest afternoon in over 24 years. So I believe it is incorrect to say "The media hyped coldest in 25 years for days. Not even close". That sounds pretty close to me.

 

STL Lambert Airport has records that go back to 1930 (previous records were at a different location). Only 5 months had colder highs than yesterday's 2F (which was a midnight high temperature). Those 5 months were December 1989, January 1985, December 1983, January 1982, and January 1977.  January 1936 and January 1994 tied yesterday's mark of 2F. So this one was up there with the heavy hitters.

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To be fair, this cold wasn't very impressive for Saint Louis, -8 for a non lake influenced location isn't very impressive.

 

My home hit -19.1 last night, that is the 2nd coldest night locally since 1984. The lakes destroy most of our cold temps this early in the season and the fact we had some -20 or so reading in southern Michigan IS historic.

 

This would be the equal to a 100F high temp, since that only happened 2-3 times in my entire life.

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To be fair, this cold wasn't very impressive for Saint Louis, -8 for a non lake influenced location isn't very impressive.

 

My home hit -19.1 last night, that is the 2nd coldest night locally since 1984. The lakes destroy most of our cold temps this early in the season and the fact we had some -20 or so reading in southern Michigan IS historic.

 

This would be the equal to a 100F high temp, since that only happened 2-3 times in my entire life.

 

 

Thanks Man.  My problem is directly with the media.  And no one in STL has died from this cold directly.  So the media hype may of helped in that regard.

 

 

My backyard and many other suburb cities broke or seemingly tied snow fall records and it was totally glossed over.  STL smashed the daily snowfall record.  A lot of the areas from just SW of STL through my home and ENE had 13-17" but because of winds it really killed measuring.  I had 9" after 3 1/2 hours of heavy snow.  1.5-2" during a 2 hours lull.  Then 2 hours of heavy snow again and 1 hour of moderate and 2 hours of light.

 

Belleville's record is 14.8" in 1982.  Technically this storm was 14".  But it was higher.  Just immeasurable. 

 

Now in terms of impact 1982 was way worse this was a fluff 20-1+ fest.  lambert had .57" or so and 11".

 

The cold was hosed by the stronger SLP so the HP went further South so winds were not ideal.

 

I know folks are used to March of 2012 like weather. May of 2012, July of 2012 and other warm months.  In fact if we don't really archive this and keep it going the monthly values will be close to normal based on the teleconnectors. 

 

However in terms of snow and cold this was an historic event in modern STL.

 

 

snowfall.png

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To be fair, this cold wasn't very impressive for Saint Louis, -8 for a non lake influenced location isn't very impressive.

 

My home hit -19.1 last night, that is the 2nd coldest night locally since 1984. The lakes destroy most of our cold temps this early in the season and the fact we had some -20 or so reading in southern Michigan IS historic.

 

This would be the equal to a 100F high temp, since that only happened 2-3 times in my entire life.

With regard to St. Louis, I have to disagree. Yesterday saw St. Louis' coldest reading since February 1996. Nevertheless, the cold shot was not close to historic for that city.

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With regard to St. Louis, I have to disagree. Yesterday saw St. Louis' coldest reading since February 1996. Nevertheless, the cold shot was not close to historic for that city.

 

It was impressive. The media hyped it as historic.

 

As ORH alluded to the HIGH temp was very cold.  It only reached 1F yesterday afternoon. 

 

 that tied for 14th coldest daily high temp with 5 other dates.

 

The average was -3.0F tied with some 1996 date for 24th coldest daily average.

 

The -8F was tied for 60th lowest on record here.

 

 

I guess considering we have smashed all time high lows, all time highs and so on for the last decade. Using the term historic the way the media has is unfair.  You never hear historic for the warmth except Kent E on channel 4. 

 

I'd call this an epic cold wave and the coldest since 1996.

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It was impressive. The media hyped it as historic.

 

As ORH alluded to the HIGH temp was very cold.  It only reached 1F yesterday afternoon. 

 

 that tied for 14th coldest daily high temp with 5 other dates.

 

The average was -3.0F tied with some 1996 date for 24th coldest daily average.

 

The -8F was tied for 60th lowest on record here.

 

 

I guess considering we have smashed all time high lows, all time highs and so on for the last decade. Using the term historic the way the media has is unfair.  You never hear historic for the warmth except Kent E on channel 4. 

 

I'd call this an epic cold wave and the coldest since 1996.

I agree with you about the media's hype. This was an impressive cold shot, but not really historic. The media references to the "polar vortex" are also somewhat out of control (and I'm not just talking about newscasters' references to the term).

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I agree with you about the media's hype. This was an impressive cold shot, but not really historic. The media references to the "polar vortex" are also somewhat out of control (and I'm not just talking about newscasters' references to the term).

 

 

I did a google search for "polar vortex 2014" last night and came up with over 500 million results.  :lol:

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What did the media call it the other times a PV anomaly was this far South?

I was wondering the same. I seem to recall phrases like "Arctic Outbreak" and "Arctic Plunge", not "Polar Vortex Grips the US". We even got a corporate email yesterday referencing the dangerous polar vortex. :lol:

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With regard to St. Louis, I have to disagree. Yesterday saw St. Louis' coldest reading since February 1996. Nevertheless, the cold shot was not close to historic for that city.

 

Yes.  This was a once in 10-20 year event (well for parts of MN it was in fact not even as cold as it was the first couple of days of 2014).  The media has been making it out to be the end times, as if a "polar vortex" and its attendant cold are extremely rare.

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The Euro Operational and Ensemble cant seem to agree on the possibility of another brutal cold shot may come down around the 20th of Jan.  The operational keeps showing it but the Ensemble doesnt.  Joe B seems to be on board with the Operational.

Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 1h

5 kt temps brutally cold yet again after the thaw. the hounds of winter howl again pic.twitter.com/4YIeNd2Z0V

 
BdZyLlyCQAIumYv.png
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I posted this the Lakes/Ohio Valley sub-forum...thought it may be of some interest in this thread.

 

How this stretch of consecutive hourly ("top of the hour") readings of -10º or lower compares to the last great one, January 18-19, 1994, for some places in Indiana. This one didn't have the longevity and was warmer overall than Jan 1994...but still pretty impressive in my book.

 

Fort Wayne

January 6-7, 2014: 27

January 18-19, 1994: 31

 

Indianapolis

January 6-7, 2014: 27

January 18-19, 1994: 34

 

Lafayette

January 6-7, 2014: 27-28 (estimated)

January 18-19, 1994: 34

 

Muncie

January 6-7, 2014: 27

January 18-19, 1994: 32 (estimated)

 

South Bend

January 6-7, 2014: 26

January 18-19, 1994: 32

 

Also, a very nice turnaround in season snowfall in 2013-14 thus far in this region...versus this time last year. 

 

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The hype was way beyond the reality.

 

The snow was more historic than the temps.

Multiple cities outsdie of StL just SE had their 2nd or highest single event snow totals and single day snow totals on record.

 

 

The -8F was even a record low.

 

The hype for this was 100000000 times more than anything from March of 2012 or any other time when records were actually crushed.

 

It was basically the coldest day St. Louis has seen in almost 25 years. Just because it didn't verify at STL quite as cold as some models indicated doesn't mean the cold didn't deserve some hype. The actual daytime temps in the area (what people feel and notice the most) were highly unusual and extreme.

 

Also, you are comparing an extreme event in January to an extreme event in March. In terms of absolutes, the extreme cold this time of year (January is the coldest time of year) is much more meaningful to the average person than extremes in March (when it can get much warmer in the summer).

 

So of course the media is going to hype a severe cold wave in January more than an extreme bout of warmth in March. People care more about the former.

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It was impressive. The media hyped it as historic.

 

As ORH alluded to the HIGH temp was very cold.  It only reached 1F yesterday afternoon. 

 

 that tied for 14th coldest daily high temp with 5 other dates.

 

The average was -3.0F tied with some 1996 date for 24th coldest daily average.

 

The -8F was tied for 60th lowest on record here.

 

 

I guess considering we have smashed all time high lows, all time highs and so on for the last decade. Using the term historic the way the media has is unfair.  You never hear historic for the warmth except Kent E on channel 4. 

 

I'd call this an epic cold wave and the coldest since 1996.

 

Your below zero drought had to end sooner or later.

 

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lol thanks that is ugly.

I'd love to see that go back to 1869(official records) or 1830 something(full unofficial records.)

 

From 1970 to 2000 only two years went back to back without a low below 0F.  Then after 1999 it just stopped.

Although we reached 0F in 2009.

 

But many years in the 2000s were not even close.

 

It looks like it tied to the PDO and EPO.

 

But a mix of modern UHI and AGW probably helped the record go 13 years. 

 

We may break 0F again this winter the way things are going if we can get some more deep cold during snow pack.

 

Technically with snowpack we can go below zero into early March.

 

But Feb 20th is about the cut off for being semi realistic without epic ideal conditions.

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Ok, yeah wunderground was missing NYC data from 1994 but I knew it was the coldest at least back to then.

 

Yea, there is a big chunk of KNYC data missing from there.  Not to derail thread but I brought it up to the site a couple years ago and they said that's just the data they had.  If anyone knows where to get historical hourly data from NYC going back pretty far, please post!

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