Griteater's Winter Outlook '13-'14

[griteater]

Griteater’s Winter Outlook '13-'14

 

First, let’s take a look at the various climate / seasonal forecast indices that will be factored into this winter outlook.

 

 

ENSO

It looks like we are headed for a second straight ENSO neutral fall/winter.  The dynamical and statistical ENSO model plumes on the IRI site as of October 17th have essentially converged on ENSO averaging around 0.0 (Neutral) for the fall/winter.  At this stage of the game, having the fall/winter classified as anything other than neutral would be a major upset.

 

 

PDO

The PDO has been below zero for 39 of the last 40 months.  On a broader scale, we are currently in the midst of a negative decadal cycle of the PDO which began in 2007 following the positive decadal cycle that lasted from 1977-2006.

 

 

QBO

In my view, the best way to visualize the progression of the QBO is with this chart from the Free University of Berlin (see this chart for more up to date QBO data).  Based on this blog post and other AmWx posts from Sam Lillo (Met poster “OKpowdah”), I classified the winter QBO for each winter since 52-53 via the following classifications:

 

Neutral and Falling

Negative and Falling

Negative and Rising

Neutral and Rising

Positive and Rising

Positive and Falling

 

The designations for Neutral / Negative / Positive QBO are based on the January-February averaged QBO at 45mb in the stratosphere, as similarly defined in the QBO column in this table.  I expect that the QBO for this upcoming winter will be in the Positive and Falling phase.  That is, the Jan-Feb averaged QBO at 45mb will be positive with the QBO easterlies descending through the stratosphere into the 20mb-35mb range in the Jan-Feb timeframe.  To put it another way, we have passed the peak and are in the backend of the positive (westerly) phase of the QBO.

 

 

Solar Flux

It looks like Solar Cycle 24 peaked in early 2012 based on the smoothed sunspot number and is now on the decline.  One way to define solar maximum and minimum conditions during the winter is by using 10.7 cm solar radio flux.  Solar maximum conditions are achieved when the 10.7 cm radio flux exceeds 150 (x 10 ^-22 W m^-2 Hz^-1).  Solar minimum conditions are achieved when the 10.7 cm radio flux falls below 105 (x 10 ^-22 W m^-2 Hz^-1).  It looks like solar flux values should average within the 100-150 range this winter (generally neutral conditions).  In a few years, it is expected that solar flux values will fall into solar minimum conditions, and if scientist projections are correct, stay there for many, many years to come.

 

 

Pacific Pattern

 

The North Pacific Index (NPI) is a measurement of the sea level pressure in the vicinity of, and just to the south of, Alaska’s Aleutian Islands.  Here’s a map showing the area of interest.

 

 

 

Positive values of this index represent an Aleutian high (ridge).  Negative values of this index represent an Aleutian low (trough).

 

During La Nina winters, an Aleutian High is favored (+NPI in 78% of Nina winters since 1950).  During El Nino winters, an Aleutian Low is favored (-NPI in 58% of Nino winters since 1950).

 

The NPI runs in decadal cycles and has closely aligned itself with the decadal cycle of the PDO since the mid-1920s, but with opposite sign (i.e. –PDO aligns with +NPI). 

 

Here’s a record of the decadal cycles of the NPI since 1900:

 

1901-1923: +NPI

1926-1945: -NPI

1947-1976: +NPI

1977-2005: -NPI

2006-current: +NPI

 

Like the PDO, the NPI doesn’t always align itself with its decadal cycle for any given winter (i.e. some –NPI winters occur during a +NPI decadal cycle).  But when we combine the decadal cycle of the NPI with ENSO, the predictive power of the north Pacific goes up, and is quite high.  Going back to 1900, during La Nina winters when the NPI was in a positive decadal cycle, the NPI was positive 91% of the time (Aleutian high).  During El Nino winters when the NPI was in a negative decadal cycle, the NPI was negative 88% of the time (Aleutian low). 

 

Note: for ENSO designation, I used a combo of the ONI and MEI Rankings for post-1950.  In order for a year to be classified as Nino or Nina, it must have met the criteria for both; else the year was classified as ENSO Neutral.  For pre-1950, I used the MEI.ext Rankings alone.

 

So what happens in the north Pacific during ENSO Neutral winters?  During ENSO Neutral winters, the NPI is more variable.  If we look at ENSO Neutral winters during the period between 1947 and 2005 when the NPI went essentially through a 30 year decadal cycle of +NPI and a 30 year decadal cycle of -NPI, we see that a +NPI (Aleutian High) occurred 43% of the time, and a –NPI (Aleutian Low) occurred 36% of the time.  In an attempt to try and pin down how the north Pacific behaves during ENSO Neutral winters, I looked at a lot of different factors.  The thing that seemed to correlate the best for the north Pacific pattern was to first identify the background ENSO state of the Pacific, then combine that with the decadal cycle of the NPI. 

 

Here’s the ENSO progression over the past 5 years:

 

2009-2010: El Nino (Moderate)

2010-2011: La Nina (Strong)

2011-2012: La Nina (Weak)

2012-2013: Neutral

2013-2014: Neutral (predicted)

 

The ONI (Oceanic Nino Index) has been negative in 33 of the last 39 tri-monthlies, indicating that the equatorial Pacific is currently in an overall La Nina phase going back to the 2010-2011 Nina.  Further evidence of a lean toward La Nina includes generally lower than normal cloudiness near the dateline in the equatorial Pacific since April.  The positive OLR (Outgoing Longwave Radiation) values on this chart indicate the anomalously low cloudiness.  The SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) has leaned toward La Nina values since April as well (positive SOI).  Finally, and probably most importantly, with the ENSO progression over the last 4 years, we haven’t had anything to ‘overturn’ the Pacific to move it away from a general La Nina background state (no significant Nino or multi-year Nino), and I would expect that to continue into the upcoming winter.

 

Given an overall La Nina background state in the Pacific and combining it with the current positive decadal cycle of the NPI, I would expect to see an Aleutian High in the north Pacific in the mean charts for this winter.

 

With the above in mind, let’s now look at the configuration of the Aleutian High.  Met poster ‘HM’ wrote this blog entry outlining how Aleutian Highs have a tendency to shift poleward during La Nina and cool Neutral / predominantly +QBO winters (-PNA type pattern), with the Aleutian High having a tendency to shift southward during La Nina and cool Neutral / predominantly –QBO winters (+EPO /Alaska Vortex Pattern). 

 

Now let’s take a look at all ENSO neutral winters in which the NPI was positive, and see the resultant configuration of the Aleutian High during predominantly negative vs. positive QBO winters.  The results posted in HM’s blog also verified when looking at the ENSO neutral cases as a whole.  During ENSO neutral / +NPI / +QBO winters, the Aleutian High did in fact reach poleward into the Bering Strait/Western Alaska in 4 of the 5 cases, with no strong indication one way or the other in one of the cases.  During ENSO neutral / +NPI / -QBO winters, the Aleutian High was shifted southward in 4 of the 5 cases as well.

 

Here’s a composite of the 4 ENSO neutral / +NPI / +QBO winters in which the Aleutian High reached more poleward in the north Pacific into the Bering Strait and Western Alaska (note the positive anomalies in that region)

 

 

 

Here’s a composite of the 4 ENSO neutral / +NPI / -QBO winters in which the Aleutian High was displaced more to the south and did not reach as far poleward compared to the +QBO composite (note how the positive anomalies are suppressed to the south in the Gulf of Alaska and there are negative anomalies in the Bering Strait and northern Alaska).

 

 

 

With those 2 images, the area of focus is the North Pacific and the downstream pattern in western North America.  You can see in the first composite (+QBO composite) the deeper trough in western Canada/U.S. compared to the –QBO composite.

 

 

Forecast Call – North Pacific

With all of the above in mind, and the fact that I fully expect the QBO to register as predominantly positive in the lower stratosphere for this winter (+QBO at 45mb averaged over Jan-Feb), the mean pattern in the north Pacific for this winter favors a more poleward reaching Aleutian High (+NPI), with a downstream mean trough in western Canada/U.S.

 

 

Continued on next post...

[griteater]

AO/NAO

 

Let’s take a look at a number of factors that I will use in an attempt to forecast the winter AO/NAO.  I’m going to focus a bit more on the NAO in this year’s outlook, but both the AO and NAO will be considered.

 

 

ENSO

I put together the following monthly NAO numbers based solely on the ENSO designation for all fall/winters since 1950.

 

Note: I used a monthly NAO of -0.50 or lower to define “Negative Months” and 0.50 or higher to define “Positive Months”, all based on the PC-based monthly NAO data from Dr. James Hurrell at NCAR.

 

 

 

So, since 1950, the NAO has been negative 46% of all El Nino winter months (Dec-Mar), compared to 42% for ENSO Neutral, and 26% for La Nina.  As shown, Ninos are the preferred ENSO state for a –NAO.  Neutral winters are a close 2^nd, with –NAO months occurring significantly less during Ninas.

 

 

QBO

Now let’s take a look at the monthly NAO numbers based on the aforementioned 6 phases of the QBO.

 

 

 

Here we see that the 2 best QBO phases for a –NAO are when the QBO is entering and in the front end of the –QBO (Neu & Fall and Neg & Fall); the 2 worst QBO phases for a –NAO are when the QBO is entering and in the front end of the +QBO (Neu & Rise and Pos & Rise), and the –NAO numbers are somewhere in between when the QBO is on the backend of both the –QBO and +QBO (Neg & Rise and Pos & Fall).

 

 

ENSO/QBO/Solar

Combining the data in the 2 previous sections, we see that the best ENSO/QBO combination for a –NAO is El Nino combined with a front end -QBO (Neutral & Falling or Negative & Falling - example: 2009-2010, DJFM NAO of -2.54); and we see that the worst ENSO/QBO combination for a –NAO is La Nina combined with a front end +QBO (Neutral & Rising or Positive & Rising - example: 1975-1976, DJFM NAO of 1.29).

 

I didn’t find significant impact to the NAO when factoring in solar min vs. solar max years.  However, the exception to this is solar minimum winters combined with El Nino and a front end –QBO.  Since 1950 there have been 3 winters with the combination of El Nino, front end –QBO, and solar minimum (’76-’77, ’86-’87, ’09-’10).  For those 3 winters, the NAO was negative in 10 of the 12 months.

 

Given all of the above, this winter’s combination of ENSO Neutral, backend +QBO, and neutral solar flux doesn’t give a strong indication for how the NAO will behave.  Based on these factors alone, I’d favor a neutral NAO call for the winter.

 

 

October Eurasian Snow Cover

The October SAI (Snow Advance Index) is a measurement of the rate of snow cover advance in Eurasia south of 60N latitude in October.  Here’s the relevant paper on this subject from Cohen and Jones.  As specified in the paper, a high rate of snow cover advance correlates to a wintertime –AO, while a slow snow cover advance correlates to a +AO.  The Eurasian snowcover south of 60N started out anomalously high at the beginning of October; however, the rate of advancement through the month has been below average.  It looks like the SAI will end the month in the +0.25 to +1.0 range.  Here’s the SAI to DJFM AO correlation graphic from Cohen (back to October 1998).

 

 

 

Now let’s look at the atmospheric pattern associated with the October Eurasian snow cover.  In this paper, Cohen talks about how the snow cover advance affects the Siberian High, and the wintertime AO – “During the fall a rapid advance in snow cover favors a strengthened and a more expansive Siberian high, which leads to increased energy transfer from the lower to the upper atmosphere and a weakened polar vortex. The cycle ends with the negative phase of the AO.  In contrast, a slower advance in snow cover favors a weaker and a more contracted Siberian high, which leads to decreased energy transfer from the lower to the upper atmosphere and a strengthened polar vortex.  The cycle ends with the positive phase of the AO.” 

 

Here’s a composite of Sea Level Pressure (SLP) in Octobers prior to the Top 10 most negative AO winters on record since 1950 – notice the anomalously strong Siberian High across northern Eurasia:

 

 

 

And here’s a composite of Sea Level Pressure (SLP) in Octobers prior to the Top 10 most positive AO winters on record since 1950 – notice the anomalously weak Siberian High across northern Eurasia:

 

 

 

Now let’s look at this October.  In the composite below for Oct 1-26, we see the development of an anomalously weak Siberian High across northern Eurasia, more consistent with the +AO composite (and this pattern looks to continue through the end of the month per the GFS).

 

 

 

I pulled the same type images for Octobers preceding the top 10 most negative and positive NAO winters, and the results over northern Siberia were essentially identical (strong Oct Siberian High preceding –NAO winters and weak Oct Siberian High preceding +NAO winters).

 

Bottom line, the slower than normal advance of snow cover this October in Eurasia south of 60N, and the related atmospheric pattern of an anomalously weak Siberian High this October, favors a positive AO/NAO for the upcoming winter.

 

 

October Pattern Index (OPI)

The OPI was introduced just this year by a group out of Italy (for an English version of the link, you will need to run it through a Google translation).  As best I can tell, the OPI is based on the 500mb wave pattern that develops through the entire month of October, with the premise being that the wave pattern seen during the infancy stage of the developing wintertime polar vortex in October has a significant impact on the resulting winter AO.  My impression is that the concepts in the OPI are sound, and correlations between the OPI and the winter AO going back to 1976 are quite high. 

 

 

 

Having said that, the group’s work hasn’t undergone scientific peer review, and this will be the first year in which the group will be making a forward based forecast using the method.

 

One thing that I think is neat about the OPI is how they produce the index through the month of October using a combination of actual data and model data.  For example, the index reading on October 21^st is based on actual data from October 1-20, combined with the GFS forecast out to 10 days (to Oct 30).  Using this method, the end of October OPI value can be anticipated ahead of time, with the end value becoming clearer as you approach the end of the month (i.e. as more actual data, and less model data, is used).

 

As of October 29^th, the OPI value is +1.60.  Based on the aforementioned method of computing the value, I wouldn’t anticipate much change by month’s end.  The group won’t be releasing their analysis of this year’s OPI until early November, but based on prior correlations, this number supports a strong +AO for the winter.

 

 

Statistical NAO Model

I just recently saw the post referencing the Statistical NAO Model from Al Marinaro.  His model is predicting a negative NAO for Dec-Feb (model value is -0.77).  It appears that his model is based on upper level wind calculations in May and September.  I have seen some of his posts in the past, and my impression is that he does good work.  He has this site with reconstructed EPO data that is very good.  It’s impossible for me to make a judgment on his NAO prediction without knowing any details about the method used (proprietary).

 

 

NAO Decadal Trend

In reviewing the NAO data, the one element that surprised me the most (even though I had read about it) was how much the NAO seemed to run in decadal cycles. 

 

Here’s a record of the noteworthy decadal cycles of the NAO since 1900:

1903-1914: +NAO

1936-1947: -NAO

1955-1971: -NAO

1989-2000: +NAO

 

Now here’s a graph showing a 10 year running mean of the winter (Dec-Mar) NAO Index: 

 

 

 

 

The 10 year mean of the NAO has trended downward since the late 90’s.  In spite of that, averaging over the last 10 years yields a composite NAO close to 0 (Neutral).  It remains to be seen whether the downward trend will continue through the rest of the decade.

 

 

Forecast Call – NAO

Here’s a summary of the AO/NAO factors I’ve considered for the upcoming winter:

 

ENSO/QBO/Solar – Neutral NAO

October Eurasian Snow Cover – Positive AO/NAO

OPI – Strongly Positive AO

Statistical NAO Model – Negative NAO

NAO Decadal Trend – Neutral to Negative NAO

 

Obviously, there are conflicting signals, but my call for the Dec-Mar averaged NAO is +0.80 to +1.40 (using the Hurrell Dec-Mar PC-Based NAO data).  I am essentially going to lean more on the October Eurasian Snow Cover (particularly the weaker than normal Siberian High) and the OPI for the moderate to strong +NAO call. 

 

Note: the NAO and AO can differ substantially at shorter time ranges (daily, weekly, monthly), but when you average both the NAO and AO across the Dec-Mar period, the two values tend to be in the same ballpark and don’t exhibit wide variation.  Thus, I would apply my NAO call to the AO as well.

 

 

Continued on next post...

[griteater]

2013-2014 Winter Forecast Discussion

 

Based on my forecast calls for the Pacific pattern and the winter NAO, here’s my projected mean storm track for this winter (Dec-Mar), with implied below normal 500mb heights as you move farther north and west of the track, and above normal 500mb heights as you move farther south and east of the track.  The red contour represents the area I feel has the best chance at experiencing above normal temperatures, with the blue contour representing the area with the best chance at below normal temperatures.  Historically, -PNA/+NAO patterns have produced some of the warmest, least wintry weather for the SE when looking at individual winter months, even more so than +EPO/+NAO patterns (Alaskan Vortex).  I certainly don’t think the pattern depicted will maintain itself throughout the entire winter.  Nearly all winters have variable patterns, but the map represents the pattern that I feel will be more common than any other throughout the December to March period.

 

 

 

Will we see a southern stream? 

Based on the current ENSO state in the Pacific, If/when we see a +PNA pattern develop over the winter, I believe we would see a northern stream dominated pattern without a southern stream undercutting western U.S. ridging.  I believe our best shot at seeing storm systems traverse the southern U.S. would be if we keep a similar –PNA type pattern in the western U.S. as depicted on the map above, but combine it with a well placed –NAO anomaly pattern.

 

If/when we do get a favorable 500mb pattern for cold air, will the cold air deliver? 

This graph for Charlotte, NC shows that the number of cold days (which I’ve defined here as days with highs of 42 degrees or less) have decreased from 20-25 days in the early 1900’s to 10-15 days in the early 2000’s (graph is a 10 yr running mean).  Between 1958 and 1985 (cold period), the average number of winter days in Charlotte with a high of 42 degrees or less was 21.  For the period 1986 to 2013, the average number of cold days decreased to 13, with only 2 and 3 days occurring in the last 2 warm winters respectively.  Looking back at historical height anomaly patterns and resulting temperatures, the lack of cold days over the last 2 winters appears to be an extreme anomaly, but a noteworthy one nonetheless.

 

 

 

Summary of Forecast Calls

For the southeast as a whole, I’m going to give a general rating from 0 to 10, based on the following:

 

0 = well above normal temperatures, well below normal amount of wintry precipitation (snow/ice), well below normal # of winter storm threats

10 = well below normal temperatures, well above normal amount of wintry precipitation (snow/ice), well above normal # of winter storm threats

 

My call for this winter for the southeast: 2

 

 

Specifically for Charlotte:

Total snowfall: 0-3 inches

Total # of days with high temperatures of 42 or less: 3-7

Total # of days with high temperatures of 32 or less: 0-1

 

 

Chances of seeing a significant, widespread winter storm across the southeast (e.g. Dec 25, 2010): below to well below normal

 

ENSO will be classified as Neutral

 

QBO will be classified as Positive and Falling

 

10.7 cm solar radio flux averaged for Dec-Feb will fall in the 100-150 range (x 10 ^-22 W m^-2 Hz^-1) – neutral solar flux conditions

 

The mean pattern in the north Pacific for this winter will be a poleward reaching Aleutian High (+NPI), with a downstream mean trough in western Canada/U.S.

 

NAO averaged over the Dec-Mar period will be in the +0.80 to +1.40 range per the Hurrell PC-Based NAO data.

 

Best chance at above normal snow for western U.S. Ski Resorts: All of Utah and Colorado; in particular, Little Cottonwood Canyon in Utah (Alta/Snowbird) and Steamboat in Colorado which both do well with storms coming out of the NE Pacific.

 

 

 

Regardless of my prediction, what I would really like to see this winter is another one of these…

 

[Cold Rain]

Grit, man, very well laid out forecast. I read the first and third posts (will tackle the second in a while when I have more time). Your formatting and thought layout makes the ideas very readable and understandable. Overall, I agree with your ideas, although I might put us at a 4 or 5 instead of a 2. But I can't complain about you going in that direction, given the fact that the warm signals have overwhelmed the cold signals in winters of late.

Very good work sir. Of course, I will be thoroughly routing against you and hope you have the mother of all busts!

[calculus1]

Griteater, you sir, have outdone yourself!  This is a phenomenally well-researched take on the upcoming winter.  Thanks for sharing this info.  I'm not too thrilled with your conclusions, but I totally respect the methodology.  Again, well done!

[Stovepipe]

Excellent post, thanks for taking the time to share your research.

[tazaroo]

You really have done some awesome research and thought in this forecast. 

 

Being a snow lover though I am rooting for the  Statistical NAO model to be correct of course and save us from our 3rd warm winter in a row.

[MikeGold]

You really have done some awesome research and thought in this forecast. 

 

Being a snow lover though I am rooting for the  Statistical NAO model to be correct of course and save us from our 3rd warm winter in a row.

 

WXRISK.COM put together a much more interesting approach using NAO research from Al Marinaro.  He predicts an average NAO of -0.77 for the Winter season..strongest since 1995. Details on Wx.Risk Facebook page. Using this approach only 3 busts in the last 31 years of data. It appears it will be the NAO that makes or breaks griteater's forecast and hence I'm guessing it will be a bust.

[Bevo]

I agree with your overall conclusion.  However, I would not be at all surprised to see the above average temps be more tempered than they have been the last two years.  I was fortunate enough to benefit from the wedge effect for most of last winter, keeping my area pretty normal overall. 

 

I reluctantly tend to believe we will live with these general conditions for several more years.  Hell, judging by the PDO cycles alone it would seem we are only in the early stages.

 

It's not what winter lovers want to hear, but there you go.

 

Great effort grit. I imagine your work space looked much like an intelligence meeting at the OSS.

 

 

[BullCityWx]

This is not the way to welcome me home.

[HM]

This is an excellent presentation and very well done! Bravo! Good luck on your forecast. In the old days, this thread would have been pinned in the main forum by now!

[jburns]

This is an excellent presentation and very well done! Bravo! Good luck on your forecast. In the old days, this thread would have been pinned in the main forum by now!

 But to be honest, because it is a warm forecast, it would only have been pinned to make it an easier target.

[FallsLake]

Great analysis. Wish everything was pointing to a colder pattern but you never want to wish-cast.

[jburns]

WXRISK.COM put together a much more interesting approach using NAO research from Al Marinaro.  He predicts an average NAO of -0.77 for the Winter season..strongest since 1995. Details on Wx.Risk Facebook page. Using this approach only 3 busts in the last 31 years of data. It appears it will be the NAO that makes or breaks griteater's forecast and hence I'm guessing it will be a bust.

 

DT will publish anything that will make him stand out.  Usually accompanied by something like, ALERT, ALEET, ALERT   THIS IS NP DRILL!!!!!

[MikeGold]

DT will publish anything that will make him stand out.  Usually accompanied by something like, ALERT, ALEET, ALERT   THIS IS NP DRILL!!!!!

 

Of the weather geeks/gurus that I follow-he is one of the best for Winter weather to be sure. The fact that he is mildly entertaining is a plus.....

[jburns]

Of the weather geeks/gurus that I follow-he is one of the best for Winter weather to be sure. The fact that he is mildly entertaining is a plus.....

 

So is the fact that he never lets himself get pinned down on a forecast.  He is the master of plausible deniability.

[rduwx]

Well done as usual grit!  Best of luck with the forecast.

[MikeGold]

So is the fact that he never lets himself get pinned down on a forecast.  He is the master of plausible deniability.

 

No point in letting personalities get in the way of coming up with a decent Winter forecast.  His reference to the NAO research I was unaware of and useful; it is the first suggestion that I have seen of the potential of accurately predicating the NAO well ahead of time. I mention it here since it seems to contrast greatly with griteaters conclusions regarding the NAO. 

[Bevo]

I know I am in the minority as it relates to the NAO, but I'm not as concerned with where it goes until I see how hyper-active the PAC will be. When everything is undercut before it has a fighting chance to affect those downstream, I am not even confident a solid, west-based -NAO has enough Kapow! to make a difference in time.

[donsutherland1]

Very nice discussion, Griteater. Hopefully, the Atlanta area and Southeast will see at least one decent snowfall this winter. As for the AO/NAO, I agree with you that predominantly positive values appear to be more likely, at least at this point in time.

[packbacker]

Great read, as always!  For us in the southeast, this winter we are back to hoping for a 01/02 type winter, where it's warm but we get lucky with a big event, otherwise it's more of the same.

[metalicwx366]

Nice forecast. Probably has a great chance of verifying.

Great job Griteater.

[JWXnc]

So is the fact that he never lets himself get pinned down on a forecast.  He is the master of plausible deniability.

 

Not to mention at least 4 "first call" maps each storm...

 

Anyway, thanks for taking time to put this together and post, griteater! It's interesting to see just how many variables can be considered for winter trends.

[calculus1]

DT will publish anything that will make him stand out.  Usually accompanied by something like, ALERT, ALEET, ALERT   THIS IS NP DRILL!!!!!

 

You nailed it, burns!

 

Griteater, as I've already said, very well done on the presentation and methodology.  My praise carries little weight, but when you have heavy hitters like HM and donsutherland1 adding their commendations, you know you've done well.  Kudos!

[Met1985]

Thanks for taking the time to post Grit! Great presentation.

[NavarreDon]

Props on the time & effort Grit! Really well done piece.

[Huffwx]

Well thought out forecast. Excellent work and I tend to agree with your overall thoughts. When I finally release my outlook-- I was planning on forecasting 5 inches or under for Roanoke. Lynchburg and Danville-- to signify that we will have REALLY tame and lame winter. 

[buckeyefan1]

Great presentation Griteater     

 

It's not what I'd like to hear, but understand all your reasoning behind it     

[WxJordan]

Very good forecast. I understand your forecast method and technique, and I believe that you may be right about the upcoming winter.  This is something I have been watching for the past couple of weeks, and I believe that temperatures may be warmer than average.  We shall see, but it only takes one storm to cause major havoc anywhere, which is always impossible to predict. Thanks for your thoughts and very well laid out presentation!

[griteater]

^ Thanks for all of the feedback and comments...I really appreciate it.