Geos Posted October 26, 2013 Share Posted October 26, 2013 A new month under a week away now. What kind of November will we have? Some more warm spells? Early snowstorms for some? Hopefully the month will feature some active weather with some good storms to track through the subforum. New 12z GFS is showing a stormy first week of November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 26, 2013 Share Posted October 26, 2013 260hrs ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 26, 2013 Author Share Posted October 26, 2013 260hrs ? And the storm were monitoring for the 31st and 1st. Bit of a cold air shot after it. NAEFS showing near normal to slightly above normal temperatures 3-10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 27, 2013 Share Posted October 27, 2013 Yeah, we gotta get out of the habit of posting these really long range op GFS maps so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 27, 2013 Author Share Posted October 27, 2013 Yeah, we gotta get out of the habit of posting these really long range op GFS maps so much. I was just driving the point that the first week looks active like this week. Not to focus on any one storm in the medium range. Looks like seasonal temperatures the first few days at least. Here's our storm in the first few hours of the 1st. Bombing out at 980mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted October 27, 2013 Share Posted October 27, 2013 260hrs ? And the storm were monitoring for the 31st and 1st. Bit of a cold air shot after it. NAEFS showing near normal to slightly above normal temperatures 3-10th. The first 2 weeks of November look pretty ballpark normal, the last two weeks will define the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 28, 2013 Author Share Posted October 28, 2013 CPC says we start November off cooler than normal in the Great Lakes. and somewhat wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 Gonna be nice to have snow on the ground this yr for opening morning of the wi gun deer hunting season. Big nov and dec snows for the upper MW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 28, 2013 Share Posted October 28, 2013 zonal, dry, boring. Punt until December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 28, 2013 Author Share Posted October 28, 2013 Thinking this month will be on the wet side and slightly cooler than normal. Probably see the biggest departures after the second week of the month. CFS was showing a cooler Midwest though in the 11-15 day range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 Euro spits out an odd pattern in the long range. The two troughs (PNW and G.Lakes) dig in rapidly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 29, 2013 Author Share Posted October 29, 2013 Euro spits out an odd pattern in the long range. The two troughs (PNW and G.Lakes) dig in rapidly. I hope that low doesn't sit and strengthen near Juneau! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 I hope that low doesn't sit and strengthen near Juneau! Looks like a zonal, up and down sort of pattern developing through atleast mid-month. In the image above you can pick out the weak ridge over the Aleutian islands and as long as that stays sturdy, it should help keep the effects of the NAO/AO minimal and we wont get torched by the SE ridge. You can also pick-out the trough across Eastern Greenland, signs of a +NAO in place. The trough across Western Canada/Central States looks slightly over done in my opinion esp with the -PNA in place and these troughs whenever in place should last no more than 2-3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Looks like a zonal, up and down sort of pattern developing through atleast mid-month. In the image above you can pick out the weak ridge over the Aleutian islands and as long as that stays sturdy, it should help keep the effects of the NAO/AO minimal and we wont get torched by the SE ridge. You can also pick-out the trough across Eastern Greenland, signs of a +NAO in place. The trough across Western Canada/Central States looks slightly over done in my opinion esp with the -PNA in place and these troughs whenever in place should last no more than 2-3 days. Well said. The MJO moving into phase 2 by mid month should bring cooler wx here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 30, 2013 Author Share Posted October 30, 2013 Well said. The MJO moving into phase 2 by mid month should bring cooler wx here +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 I'm with alek, though change that to late November, even for Chicago. My gut is our descent into true wintry weather will be around the 20th of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 However, I have no idea where alek is getting dry from. Clearly another canned statement, because the models certainly don't indicate a particularly dry period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 31, 2013 Author Share Posted October 31, 2013 However, I have no idea where alek is getting dry from. Clearly another canned statement, because the models certainly don't indicate a particularly dry period. Compared to normal it looks on the wetter side. It's tough getting true wintry weather in here any earlier than about the 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 EC has spit out a really cold day for YYZ on Sunday. I'm a bit shocked. They weren't forecasting temperatures like that at all this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 Crazy wild morning with with swept heavy rains!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 Still no freezing temps to be found through mid November on the GFS and Euro...might make a run at December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 1, 2013 Author Share Posted November 1, 2013 Lol^ 45° now with cloudy skies still. Wind is making it sure feel like November. Driveway is a mess with leaves plastered all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 Barring the last ten days looks like another mild boring November to add to the growing list. Thankfully that list means nothing for the rest of the winter. December's verdict is likely a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 I would gladly take the current pattern for a few weeks... normal temps, solid rain every 5-6 days. November never brings us much wintry weather anyway, so I'd rather Mother Nature just save it all for a big blast in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 Clouds clouds clouds clouds... hopefully the next couple bring some sun. Don't mind this pattern, just would like a little more sunshine. Still lots of leaves on trees around here... seems late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 I'm becoming increasingly intrigued in the period following next week, both the Euro/GFS combo and the CPC 8-14 outlook suggesting SE ridge becoming established in a highly favorable position for moisture advection into the central portion of the country, with a -PNA pattern that suggests amplifying western troughing. There would certainly be potential for severe weather event or two in a pattern like that (along with possibly snow since this would favor cutters). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 I'm becoming increasingly intrigued in the period following next week, both the Euro/GFS combo and the CPC 8-14 outlook suggesting SE ridge becoming established in a highly favorable position for moisture advection into the central portion of the country, with a -PNA pattern that suggests amplifying western troughing. There would certainly be potential for severe weather event or two in a pattern like that (along with possibly snow since this would favor cutters). http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41492-winter-13-14-medlong-range-discussion/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 I realize that, but we're still a month away from met winter. Also there's other people here posting the NAEFS and CPC medium range progs for November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 1, 2013 Author Share Posted November 1, 2013 Clouds clouds clouds clouds... hopefully the next couple bring some sun. Don't mind this pattern, just would like a little more sunshine. Still lots of leaves on trees around here... seems late. Same here. Lots of leaves falling today. Sub 50° day today. Edit: Great, now it's raining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 Sun.... Over-rated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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