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Winter 13-14' Med/Long Range Discussion


Chicago Storm

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I'm hoping for some severe next week. Maybe one more chase day for the 'second season'.

A lot of time to go but I'm concerned we end up between the severe zone and any potential wintry zone. Hopefully not.

Probably a good call. Active weather is active weather though.

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Interesting read from the MPX AFD this afternoon, while they mention the fact that temp profiles as currently modeled are to warm for snow, they don't rule anything out.

 

ANOTHER ELEMENT WE NEED TO CONSIDER IS THAT THE EC SOLUTION HOLDS
BACK THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
EVEN THOUGH THE FIRST WAVE MAY BE SOUTH OF MN /MON & TUE/...THE
SECONDARY WAVE MAY BE EVEN STRONGER AND AS THE UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES...STRONG CYCLOGENESIS WILL
COMMENCE. THIS WOULD LEAD TO VERY STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS
THE PLAINS. IF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM /MODELS DEVELOP THIS ACROSS
MEXICO AND MOVE IT ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS NEXT WEEK/ GETS INVOLVED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM...NOT ONLY
WILL THERE BE SVR WX...A MAJOR WINTER STORM COULD DEVELOP. THIS IS
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE THERMAL PROFILES ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT
INTO THE PLAINS. ANOTHER ITEM WHICH NEEDS TO BE CONSIDERED...IS
THAT THE LATEST EC HAS A SIMILAR SFC/50H LOW SOLUTION MOVING FROM
EASTERN TEXAS...N/NNE ACROSS THE MIDWEST. FOR THOSE WHO LIVED
THROUGH THE 1991 HALLOWEEN BLIZZARD...THERE ARE SIMILAR
CHARACTERISTICS TO THIS STORM AND THE ONE DEVELOPING NEXT WEEK.
THE MAIN DIFFERENCE WITH NEXT WEEK SYSTEM IS ITS WARMER TEMPS...
KEEPS ALL THE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN AS IT LIFTS TO
THE N/NE. AS PER PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THIS SYSTEM NEEDS TO BE
MONITORED VERY CLOSELY WITH A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES OF
WEATHER IMPACTS.

 

I took a look at the individual ensemble members from both the GFS and GGEM and there is enough support IMO to believe the ECMWF.

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Nice read MN meso. Should be interesting to track even it only affects the nw'ern part of the subforum.

 

Was just looking at the MJO. Forecasted to head towards the cold phases, but still putzing around the circle.

 

ensplume_full.gif

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Pulled some stats for Chicago and October snowfall...

 

Chicago only recorded a T yesterday, which is not surprising (Avg first T is 10/30 and 1981-2010 OCT avg snowfall is 0.1"). The interesting part was the accumulation of a few inches in the western part of the LOT CWA. I decided to go back and pull the years that have seen accumulating snow in Oct in the LOT CWA, and then used those years to see what the winter outcome was in Chicago snow/temp wise. There ended up being 28 years that had measureable snow in the LOT CWA. In the end as you will see below there is no correlation with accumulating snow in Oct and snowfall/temps in the following winter...So you're all saved...for now.

 

As you can see in the stats below... An average of the readings from the listed years ended up being close to the 1981-2012 temp and snowfall normals. In addition to that... There ended up being 14 years that had snowfall below the 1981-2010 normal (36.7"), 13 years above that normal and 1 year exact. There ended up being 12 years that had a DJF average temp below the 1981-2010 normal (26.4F), 15 years above that normal, and 1 year exact. There are also a few extremes, as noted. Oh, and winter 1920-21 can't be denied... :devilsmiley:

 

5icl.jpg

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next week still looks very wet...still not seeing much in the way of widespread snow anywhere in or around the region but it's still a bit early for that

 

If it were to dive down and eject right away then the cold air would still be there for snow but right now the models haven't really been showing that solution, it kind of meanders around 

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Nearly perfect track locally, just wrong time of the year.

Looks similar to the December 08 storm, sadly it isn't cold enough right now for it be snowfall or frozen precip. It may usher in a cool down for 1-3 days before I expect a zonal flow to take hold but it"ll be battle of the Atlantic and Pacific. whats your take?

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Looks similar to the December 08 storm, sadly it isn't cold enough right now for it be snowfall or frozen precip. It may usher in a cool down for 1-3 days before I expect a zonal flow to take hold but it"ll be battle of the Atlantic and Pacific. whats your take?

 

Pacific is going to win for at least the first half of November, beyond that it is tough to day but I would expect warmer weather after the brief cool down associated with the backside of this system next week.

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