Chicago Storm Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 This worked last winter and during severe season and helped keep it out of the general disco thread...might as well give it a go once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 storm evolution is still rather unclear but it certainly looks like a wet week on the horizon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 I'm hoping for some severe next week. Maybe one more chase day for the 'second season'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 I'm hoping for some severe next week. Maybe one more chase day for the 'second season'. A lot of time to go but I'm concerned we end up between the severe zone and any potential wintry zone. Hopefully not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 I'm hoping for some severe next week. Maybe one more chase day for the 'second season'. A lot of time to go but I'm concerned we end up between the severe zone and any potential wintry zone. Hopefully not. Probably a good call. Active weather is active weather though. Sent from my HTCONE using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 Looks like both 12z GFS and GGEM are now showing Apps runner with the storm around/just after Halloween. Too bad there isn't enough cold air for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 12z Euro for the around Halloween storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 Impressively colder than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 12z Euro for the around Halloween storm. Closer to what the GFS/GGEM had been showing until today's run where they wanted to come out in piecemeal form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 We got a Typhoon recurving now and another one that will next week. I think this pattern will be strung out a bit longer than what the GFS shows. A change likely by about the 3rd or 4th of November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 Impressively colder than the GFS. The 18z GFS lays down a swath of snow from Utah to the UP (see 180 hour snow depth forecast ). Although it is so far out, it might be worthy of interest for Minnesotans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 Interesting read from the MPX AFD this afternoon, while they mention the fact that temp profiles as currently modeled are to warm for snow, they don't rule anything out. ANOTHER ELEMENT WE NEED TO CONSIDER IS THAT THE EC SOLUTION HOLDSBACK THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH MIDWEEK.EVEN THOUGH THE FIRST WAVE MAY BE SOUTH OF MN /MON & TUE/...THESECONDARY WAVE MAY BE EVEN STRONGER AND AS THE UPPER LEVEL STORMSYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES...STRONG CYCLOGENESIS WILLCOMMENCE. THIS WOULD LEAD TO VERY STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSSTHE PLAINS. IF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM /MODELS DEVELOP THIS ACROSSMEXICO AND MOVE IT ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE SOUTHERNPLAINS NEXT WEEK/ GETS INVOLVED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM...NOT ONLYWILL THERE BE SVR WX...A MAJOR WINTER STORM COULD DEVELOP. THIS ISHIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE THERMAL PROFILES ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES OUTINTO THE PLAINS. ANOTHER ITEM WHICH NEEDS TO BE CONSIDERED...ISTHAT THE LATEST EC HAS A SIMILAR SFC/50H LOW SOLUTION MOVING FROMEASTERN TEXAS...N/NNE ACROSS THE MIDWEST. FOR THOSE WHO LIVEDTHROUGH THE 1991 HALLOWEEN BLIZZARD...THERE ARE SIMILARCHARACTERISTICS TO THIS STORM AND THE ONE DEVELOPING NEXT WEEK.THE MAIN DIFFERENCE WITH NEXT WEEK SYSTEM IS ITS WARMER TEMPS...KEEPS ALL THE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN AS IT LIFTS TOTHE N/NE. AS PER PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THIS SYSTEM NEEDS TO BEMONITORED VERY CLOSELY WITH A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES OFWEATHER IMPACTS. I took a look at the individual ensemble members from both the GFS and GGEM and there is enough support IMO to believe the ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 Nice read MN meso. Should be interesting to track even it only affects the nw'ern part of the subforum. Was just looking at the MJO. Forecasted to head towards the cold phases, but still putzing around the circle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 24, 2013 Author Share Posted October 24, 2013 Pulled some stats for Chicago and October snowfall... Chicago only recorded a T yesterday, which is not surprising (Avg first T is 10/30 and 1981-2010 OCT avg snowfall is 0.1"). The interesting part was the accumulation of a few inches in the western part of the LOT CWA. I decided to go back and pull the years that have seen accumulating snow in Oct in the LOT CWA, and then used those years to see what the winter outcome was in Chicago snow/temp wise. There ended up being 28 years that had measureable snow in the LOT CWA. In the end as you will see below there is no correlation with accumulating snow in Oct and snowfall/temps in the following winter...So you're all saved...for now. As you can see in the stats below... An average of the readings from the listed years ended up being close to the 1981-2012 temp and snowfall normals. In addition to that... There ended up being 14 years that had snowfall below the 1981-2010 normal (36.7"), 13 years above that normal and 1 year exact. There ended up being 12 years that had a DJF average temp below the 1981-2010 normal (26.4F), 15 years above that normal, and 1 year exact. There are also a few extremes, as noted. Oh, and winter 1920-21 can't be denied... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 next week still looks very wet...still not seeing much in the way of widespread snow anywhere in or around the region but it's still a bit early for that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 next week still looks very wet...still not seeing much in the way of widespread snow anywhere in or around the region but it's still a bit early for that If it were to dive down and eject right away then the cold air would still be there for snow but right now the models haven't really been showing that solution, it kind of meanders around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 12z GFS cuts the Halloween storm through IN. If there was any cold air present, Chicago area probably gets a good snowstorm out of that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 12z GFS cuts the Halloween storm through IN. If there was any cold air present, Chicago area probably gets a good snowstorm out of that run. Down to 987mb as it swings through. Going to be wet and windy for trick or treaters. Critical thickness doesn't look optimal for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 Down to 987mb as it swings through. Going to be wet and windy for trick or treaters. Critical thickness doesn't look optimal for snow. Nearly perfect track locally, just wrong time of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 yep, about a month too early. classic wet and windy Halloween Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 12z GGEM tracks it through Iowa and across southern WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 Nearly perfect track locally, just wrong time of the year. Ya, makes what, 3rd autumn in a row like this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 yep, about a month too early. classic wet and windy Halloween I actually like those! It can snow for Thanksgiving though, especially since it's so late this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 12z Euro with a 980 or maybe sub 980mb low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 Nearly perfect track locally, just wrong time of the year. Looks similar to the December 08 storm, sadly it isn't cold enough right now for it be snowfall or frozen precip. It may usher in a cool down for 1-3 days before I expect a zonal flow to take hold but it"ll be battle of the Atlantic and Pacific. whats your take? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 12z Euro with a 980 or maybe sub 980mb low. 978.9mb to be exact Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 Looks similar to the December 08 storm, sadly it isn't cold enough right now for it be snowfall or frozen precip. It may usher in a cool down for 1-3 days before I expect a zonal flow to take hold but it"ll be battle of the Atlantic and Pacific. whats your take? Pacific is going to win for at least the first half of November, beyond that it is tough to day but I would expect warmer weather after the brief cool down associated with the backside of this system next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 classic lake churner on the euro...should see surface temps plummet after something like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 That's a really wet storm as well. Actually two pieces will impact the subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 LOT was already talking about 1-2" rains in the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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