moneypitmike Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 Frost in the burbs this morning too. Noticed it here in Andover. Congrats--first of the season? I have yet to have one, figure I'll just go right to freeze later this week. 37.1/33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 Congrats--first of the season? I have yet to have one, figure I'll just go right to freeze later this week. 37.1/33 I don't think I've had one either. This was at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 patchy frost here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 patchy frost here Here too. 34/31 currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 More than perhaps if you get rain. I'm not sold on it even here though. Euro is rather dry. Yup. Flow looks rather progressive so I would not rule that out either. Frost in the burbs this morning too. Noticed it here in Andover. Widespread around my area. Got another freeze too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 Looking back from a week ago, the GEFS definitely did a better job with this cold shot. They had the low north of the Canadian maritimes rather well and the euro ensembles barely had a low. This helped drive the cold SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 Congrats--first of the season? I have yet to have one, figure I'll just go right to freeze later this week. 37.1/33 I had my first freeze of the year with a low of 32°. I've had patchy frost a few times going back to mid-September. This is pretty late for me - my running average is 10/3 and today was only 5 days from my latest of 10/26 in 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 33F up here and frosty fields after the upslope clouds dissipated around midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 No frost at my house in Pepperell. Down to 35 F at some point this morning. I just hope the cold can build in a bit better for the costal.... In other news, the NAM is on board now. Can't really say if that means anything at this point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 first frost IMBY this morning. just patchy stuff on car tops / roof and the lawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 No frost at my house in Pepperell. Down to 35 F at some point this morning. I just hope the cold can build in a bit better for the costal.... In other news, the NAM is on board now. Can't really say if that means anything at this point... It pretty much means nothing having the NAM on board. I'm still not really on board for now other than a graze perhaps. It could be a bit more rain in far SE MA and the Cape as a deformation band forms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 Gotta love the preseason with the first NAM hallucinations beyond 48hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 Nice to see no reversal in the long range. Eerily 2002esque this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 Gotta love the preseason with the first NAM hallucinations beyond 48hr. Hard frost here this am, 30F for a low at 5:33 am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 12z nam looking a little better maybe flakes for some.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 NAM is tucked in off the NJ coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 12z nam looking a little better maybe flakes for some.. Pretty torched in the low levels, but it does cool at the end...maybe the hills end as some snow on the NAM. I don't really believe the model though at this point. Its more amplified than most guidance...and the fast compressed flow leads me to think the SE solutions are more correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 at that time of year where your 850s aren't overly representative unless the atmosphere is really cold/dry to start or it is truly ripping heavy precip. still have couple / few thousand feet of mild air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 at that time of year where your 850s aren't overly representative unless the atmosphere is really cold/dry to start or it is truly ripping heavy precip. still have couple / few thousand feet of mild air. Yeah you can see that on the soundings. If it were ripping you could probably wetbulb to 34 or something. Maybe even cooler in the hills. I think there should be a decent def band on the NW side of this, but it might be too progressive and too far east to mean anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 at that time of year where your 850s aren't overly representative unless the atmosphere is really cold/dry to start or it is truly ripping heavy precip. still have couple / few thousand feet of mild air. Similiar to spring snows; I have seen it raining lower elevations of town, but you go to 700-900ft and it changes to snow. Stafford/Union/Woodstock hills near me might see some flakes, that's it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 Nice to see no reversal in the long range. Eerily 2002esque this year.great info on the main page in the Typhoon Wipha pattern change thread posted by Phil 882 and Sammy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 But once this wave train goes by, we may relax. That's a pretty +AO progged so we need to watch what happens by the Aleutians and AK. So far, heights do not lower that much, but if they do...not good. IMHO I think we'll see the Pacific jet increase again as storms plow into the NW. This may lead to some interesting swings in temps if this happens because Canada should be relatively chilly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 But once this wave train goes by, we may relax. That's a pretty +AO progged so we need to watch what happens by the Aleutians and AK. So far, heights do not lower that much, but if they do...not good. IMHO I think we'll see the Pacific jet increase again as storms plow into the NW. This may lead to some interesting swings in temps if this happens because Canada should be relatively chilly. Pretty impressive up int he stratosphere...we'll hope that it breaks up some for November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 Pretty impressive up int he stratosphere...we'll hope that it breaks up some for November. I know..pretty stout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 GFS drops temps into the U30s in RI towards 21z where it rains Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 If this was happening about 2-4 weeks from now, it'd be cause for major concern. The hope is it's not a long duration +AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 I noticed the CFS and even the weeklies have a monster +NAO, but sag the vortex really far south to the point where it cools us off. You are playing with fire when you do that near our latitude, but it was an interesting prog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 But once this wave train goes by, we may relax. That's a pretty +AO progged so we need to watch what happens by the Aleutians and AK. So far, heights do not lower that much, but if they do...not good. IMHO I think we'll see the Pacific jet increase again as storms plow into the NW. This may lead to some interesting swings in temps if this happens because Canada should be relatively chilly. Yeah I am thinking a relaxation in early November too...how much though is the issue. The main thing here for me is how warm might it get and if it would negate any snowmaking chances prior...not a fan of wasting money making snow in late October to watch it rot away for the first 10 days of November. This time of year is always stressful for those types of decisions/reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 at that time of year where your 850s aren't overly representative unless the atmosphere is really cold/dry to start or it is truly ripping heavy precip. still have couple / few thousand feet of mild air. Yeah -3C at 850 and raining by 2,500ft elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 21, 2013 Share Posted October 21, 2013 I noticed the CFS and even the weeklies have a monster +NAO, but sag the vortex really far south to the point where it cools us off. You are playing with fire when you do that near our latitude, but it was an interesting prog. That is kind of what happened in December 2007 when we had a cold and snowy December despite a solid +NAO. I'd rather not risk that, but its certainly a possibility if we end up with a +AO look going into winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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