October Pattern Index! Predicting Winter AO from October, with 90+% accuracy?

[Riccardo]

I want to tell you that at beginning of the next week we are going to issue the seasonal forecast for the winter 2013-2014, based on the OPI index. We will try to traslate the article in order to issue it in your website.

 

Goodbye

 

Riccardo

[donsutherland1]

Rip off of Cohens work:

Cohen says:

Step 1: October snow advance causes

Step 2: Perturbation in Siberia ie pattern change and

Step 3: Upward energy flux

Step 4: Disrupt PV

Step 5: Predict DJF AO/NAO 81% variability

Ricardo...

I am a genius I have discovered that at the end of October a Pertubation in Siberia causes a pattern change and upward energy flux that disturbs the PV and predicts 83% variability of DJF AO!

Ricardo demand the Nobel Prize lolololol!

That's not a fair assessment. From the translated version (courtesy of Google Translate) of the message concerning the OPI, he built on insights from Cohen's work to create the OPI. Science often builds on the work of earlier findings much as basic innovations often lead to myriad spin-offs.

 

The relevant paragraph and I've underlined the text relevant to the unique work that appears to be the basis on which the OPI was constructed:

 

 

The idea of developing the new index is born from the observation of the index to date more predictive for the winter season is the index SAI developed by Cohen in 2011. In particular Cohen in this latest research has revealed that, to be correlated with the AO winter, snow is not the level that is reached at the end of October on the Eurasian sector, but the rate of increase of snow cover below the 60^th parallel on the same industry… All these factors imply that the causal factor (ie the factor able to determine the interannual variability of the AO) is not the Eurasian snow cover, but the schema circulatory dominant that occurs in the month of October and that is the cause of the snowmaking same (and therefore its quality in terms of both speed of advancement that positioning).

 

Hopefully, the work will proceed, be "tested" on a year-to-year basis, and its dataset perhaps expanded back in time, as well. Publication in a peer reviewed journal would also be very helpful. But those are separate matters.

[donsutherland1]

Thank you for taking the time to come here and post some thoughts, Ricardo. I look forward to your thoughts about the upcoming winter AO.

[N. OF PIKE]

Thank you for taking the time to come here and post some thoughts, Ricardo. I look forward to your thoughts about the upcoming winter AO.

Very well said, there is not many others whose forecast (AO) i am awaiting more

[Crocodile23]

So the OPI value has stabilized to +1.64 for the end of October.

Now we are awaiting the translated research paper and the winter analysis by Richardo, as he said above he will make here available.

I'm looking forward to the translated in English, paper.

 

If the OPI theory is valid, we will have a +++AO this winter(around that value).

[The_Global_Warmer]

So the OPI value has stabilized to +1.64 for the end of October.

Now we are awaiting the translated research paper and the winter analysis by Richardo, as he said above he will make here available.

I'm looking forward for the translated in English paper.

 

If the OPI theory is valid, we will have a +++AO this winter(around that value).

 

 

there is no IF.  It's obviously solid.  Wow, that really sucks.  The pacific will have to drop the hammer on us for there not to be a pretty warm winter if we see 1.5 AO+ or so.  Damn.

 

Last time the OPI predicted the AO to be this high.  We saw this:

 

 

[WXheights]

there is no IF.  It's obviously solid.  Wow, that really sucks.  The pacific will have to drop the hammer on us for there not to be a pretty warm winter if we see 1.5 AO+ or so.  Damn.

 

Last time the OPI predicted the AO to be this high.  We saw this:

 

 

Wow! If the OPI were to verify based on the last part of October's current state- yesterday - (why exactly this matters??) and we torch the mid latitudes, it should mean a colder state for the arctic with strong PV in play stealing or reducing any bleed off to lower latitudes.  Highly looking forward to their findings as a test case this should be greatly informative with 1.5 to 1.64 AO! Of course the ski season would really suck in the east...and Lyme disease and tick population will continue to climb for northern New England.

[Mike.Ventrice]

Speaking of the AO... check out our tweet today on the current 2-3 sigma AO event underway as advertised by the CPC AO index: https://twitter.com/WSI_Energy/status/396257455413272576/photo/1

[Huffwx]

Speaking of the AO... check out our tweet today on the current 2-3 sigma AO event underway as advertised by the CPC AO index: https://twitter.com/WSI_Energy/status/396257455413272576/photo/1

 

 

Interesting. 

[The_Global_Warmer]

Wow! If the OPI were to verify based on the last part of October's current state- yesterday - (why exactly this matters??) and we torch the mid latitudes, it should mean a colder state for the arctic with strong PV in play stealing or reducing any bleed off to lower latitudes.  Highly looking forward to their findings as a test case this should be greatly informative with 1.5 to 1.64 AO! Of course the ski season would really suck in the east...and Lyme disease and tick population will continue to climb for northern New England.

 

 

Since 2000 the correlation coefficient is 97 percent.  

 

 

[donsutherland1]

Interesting. 

It's bi-centric. If it weren't one might be looking at an AO in the +3 to +4 range rather than the current figure around +2.4. It will be interesting to see how this evolves in coming days. A few days ago, there were three areas of below normal height anomalies. Two ensemble members bring the AO to a near-term peak of +4 or above (1 takes it to +5). That would imply consolidation of those two major areas of below normal height anomalies.

[usedtobe]

It's bi-centric. If it weren't one might be looking at an AO in the +3 to +4 range rather than the current figure around +2.4. It will be interesting to see how this evolves in coming days. A few days ago, there were three areas of below normal height anomalies. Two ensemble members bring the AO to a near-term peak of +4 or above (1 takes it to +5). That would imply consolidation of those two major areas of below normal height anomalies.

 

Bob Hill did a quick look at the stats for when the AO averages above 0.50 for November and most years the AO also averaged in the positive range for December.  I hope the AO does not peak that high.  the big number AOs seem to come back even after they weaken. 

[donsutherland1]

Bob Hill did a quick look at the stats for when the AO averages above 0.50 for November and most years the AO also averaged in the positive range for December.  I hope the AO does not peak that high.  the big number AOs seem to come back even after they weaken. 

I agree with you and Hill's work. A positive December AO average was almost three times as likely as a negative one when the November AO averaged +0.5 or above, though about equally likely with November AO figures +1 or above (but an extremely small sample size argues for a lot of caution).

[nzucker]

Speaking of the AO... check out our tweet today on the current 2-3 sigma AO event underway as advertised by the CPC AO index: https://twitter.com/WSI_Energy/status/396257455413272576/photo/1

They are using 1000mb/SLP anomalies, not the H5 maps that you are looking at. That's why you're finding a discrepancy with your interpretation of the AO and the CPC's interpretation of the index. There's a strong low pressure over the Arctic, especially on the Atlantic side around Day 4-5 (almost an Icelandic low), so that's probably driving the AO positive. 

[csnavywx]

So the OPI value has stabilized to +1.64 for the end of October.

Now we are awaiting the translated research paper and the winter analysis by Richardo, as he said above he will make here available.

I'm looking forward to the translated in English, paper.

 

If the OPI theory is valid, we will have a +++AO this winter(around that value).

Actually, the long-term r^2 value for OPI vs AO is around 0.83, which, while very strong signal, isn't a guarantee. Technically, 1 in 6 years have had a departure from the OPI's predicted value.

 

Granted, this isn't much comfort to winter lovers.

[CoastalWx]

They are using 1000mb/SLP anomalies, not the H5 maps that you are looking at. That's why you're finding a discrepancy with your interpretation of the AO and the CPC's interpretation of the index. There's a strong low pressure over the Arctic, especially on the Atlantic side around Day 4-5 (almost an Icelandic low), so that's probably driving the AO positive. 

 

Those images on the right are 1000mb.

[weatherwiz]

Unless I missed it, is there an archive of the OPI in a format that would be similar to this?

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/monthly.ao.index.b50.current.ascii.table

[Crocodile23]

Unless I missed it, is there an archive of the OPI in a format that would be similar to this?

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/monthly.ao.index.b50.current.ascii.table

 

I guess the authors obviously have what you ask, but more or less you can derive what you need with good approximation from the below

 

[Crocodile23]

I see an almost 100% correlation for the 2009-10 year(OPI for October2009 to AO for December2009+January2010+February2010)!!!!

[Mike.Ventrice]

Does anyone know the methodology behind this particular index? Or a copy of the paper? I'd like to take a stab to get it running in real-time and see if it's as good as has been advertised.

[Crocodile23]

Does anyone know the methodology behind this particular index? Or a copy of the paper? I'd like to take a stab to get it running in real-time and see if it's as good as has been advertised.

 

I have the paper(28 pages) since the authors made it available for one day but the problem is that it is in Italian and i don't know Italian. The other problem is i'm(we're) not allowed to make available the paper for downloading.

But thankfully the authors very soon will translate the paper in English and publish it via a scientific journal so we would see what's the exact deal with it.

 

 

My question for the authors(for example Ricardo, who wrote here some posts) is if the software they mention inside the paper, the "Telemappa Next Generation" will be made available?

[winterymix]

These image shows the correlation between the october index (OPI) and the winter AO to be very strong:

Kudos to Riccardo et al for the fascinating insights that they share.  At first blush, my wife and I think it was that discontinued snowblower that we purchased on deep clearance from Sears that has killed the snow but we don't have influence in the real world.

 

More seriously, let us turn our attention to the the chart:

 

 

 

It seems that the correlations tighten at or about year 2004 and continue in that manner.

One interpretation is that the authors' hypotheses merit earnest consideration because the

most recent data provides good support for the hypothesis.  The authors have already

stated that they have much more work to do in order to properly test the hypothesis

and provide deeper statistical support.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Kudos to Riccardo et al for the fascinating insights that they share.  At first blush, my wife and I think it was that discontinued snowblower that we purchased on deep clearance from Sears that has killed the snow but we don't have influence in the real world.

 

More seriously, let us turn our attention to the the chart:

 

 

post-480-0-51174400-1381532942.jpg

 

It seems that the correlations tighten at or about year 2004 and continue in that manner.

One interpretation is that the authors' hypotheses merit earnest consideration because the

most recent data provides good support for the hypothesis.  The authors have already

stated that they have much more work to do in order to properly test the hypothesis

and provide deeper statistical support.

 

 

Judah Cohens also seems to get better more recently.  Maybe better snow tracking or upper air data tracking? 

[skierinvermont]

The correlation is still really strong pre-2004 for both SAI and OPI, but both do seem to be stronger in recent years. There's probably a proximate cause for that, but ultimately it could just be luck. I'd expect in the long run future the correlation will be more like the long-term historical correlation.

[Ender]

The correlation is still really strong pre-2004 for both SAI and OPI, but both do seem to be stronger in recent years. There's probably a proximate cause for that, but ultimately it could just be luck. I'd expect in the long run future the correlation will be more like the long-term historical correlation.

It does look like this OPI to DJF AO value correlation holds up better when the DJF ONI stays within a +/-1.5C. Which I guess makes sense when one considers the relationship between mid-lat blocking frequency and exaggerated intensity that seems to correlate well with Niño intensity.

[Riccardo]

I want to communicate you that in this evening (or tomorrow morning) we are going to issue our winter forecast based on OPI index.

 

good day

 

Riccardo

[tacoman25]

there is no IF.  It's obviously solid.  Wow, that really sucks.  The pacific will have to drop the hammer on us for there not to be a pretty warm winter if we see 1.5 AO+ or so.  Damn.

 

Last time the OPI predicted the AO to be this high.  We saw this:

 

 

 

 

I would hesitate to just look at the AO, as 1991-92 was also a strong Nino. This year looks to be about dead neutral for ENSO.

[WxJAK]

Hi, just a quick note here, it looks like the years in the charts Riccardo provided were the year of the start of winter, not the end, thus 1988-89: DJF AO of 2.69,
1992-93: DJF AO of 1.77.  Plotted here

 

 

 

-- Jacob

[donsutherland1]

I want to communicate you that in this evening (or tomorrow morning) we are going to issue our winter forecast based on OPI index.

 

good day

 

Riccardo

I look forward to reading it.

[Snowstorms]

I look forward to reading it.

 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41639-seasonal-winter-20132014-forecast-based-on-opi-index/