October Pattern Index! Predicting Winter AO from October, with 90+% accuracy?

[Crocodile23]

I'm surprised that weather forums aren't flooded with discussions about the new OCTOBER PATTERN INDEX(OPI).

 

Perhaps some of you don't know what this even is. And myself just learnt about it before 3 days.

So here is some read(unfortunately it is in Italian so you will have to use a translator whatever that implies):

 

http://www.meteogiuliacci.it/articoli/october-pattern-index-opi-un-nuovo-indice-altamente-predittivo-per-la-stagione-invernale.html

http://forum.meteonetwork.it/meteorologia/150667-per-i-curiosi-disponibile-paper-opi.html

http://www.centrometeotoscana.it/forum/index.php?topic=7356.0

http://www.centrometeotoscana.it/forum/index.php?topic=7364.msg

http://forum.meteonetwork.it/meteorologia/150683-opi-october-pattern-index.html

 

The original link with the complete researce paper(which is 28 pages and it is also in Italian) was available for downloading but now it isn't. The reason if i understood correctly from the crappy google translation, is that the 3 authors will publish their research to a scientific journal and in order to do so, a free available copy is forbidden to exist.

 

The deal is simple. But its results(if correct) ARE AMAZING! EXTRAORDINARY!

It is based on a research job of Cohen with his snow advance index(SOI) where he managed to create this index to correlate it with AO(Arctic Oscillation) with very good results.

But the October Pattern Index(OPI) goes many steps further and manages to predict the winter AO(allegedly, by all the data the authors give in their paper and anyone can repeat and see by themselves) since it is an index we obtain fully at the end of October and then we can predict the next winter's AO with an amazing accuracy! They talk about 90% accuracy for the years(if i recall correctly) 1979 to 2012.

 

 And i repeat, that we can verify these results by applying the method the authors give in their paper(that is now not available, but some people had managed to get it in time) to search for possible mistakes. Note that the authors are not a joke, they are scientists and hobbyists at weather/meteorology, the one is astrophysicist for example.

 

So any thoughts?

I find the result highly annoying!  Because in a nonlinear chaotic system like the weather we should not be able to predict the next 4 months of October, or at least such a critical index of the next 4 months(like Arctic Oscillation), by just doing some "statistical investigations" on October. We shouldn't be able to do that!

Furthermore there is the logical flaw i find with this amazingly high correlation(between the October OPI and the Winter AO), that the solar activity on the winter has only a minor, if at all, role on how the winter will go.

If find it amazingly hard to believe that just an index, a statistical index which is rather simple to find or conceive the idea, by knowing its value at the end of October, is able to predict the whole winter circulation of the atmosphere, to be able to predict how the massive amount of different things that drive the climate like solar activity, QBO, AO, NAO, ENSO, SSTs, AMO, etc, etc, will combine with each other. This is utter nonsense if you ask me. It can't be done!

 

What the authors say with all these(if i understood the google translations good enough), is that the OPI at the end of October gives a distinct special stamp of the state of the atmosphere and its OPI will lead to a specific AO value/winter state. And this is ridiculous to say since it assumes an EXTREME OVER-OVERSIMPLIFICATION of the way the climate works.

But the problem is the data supports them!

 

So please help....

[Cold Rain]

In summary:

The OPI is AMAZING!

I hate it!

Thoughts?

[skierinvermont]

The AO is fairly predictable in my opinion. It doesn't surprise me that with the most thorough analysis the predictability reaches 90%. 

[Crocodile23]

The AO is fairly predictable in my opinion. It doesn't surprise me that with the most thorough analysis the predictability reaches 90%. 

 

With what method it is predictable? Any research paper about that?

[The_Global_Warmer]

WTF?  WTH?

 

 

You are telling me on Oct 31st we can predict the Dec through March AO within 90 percent accuracy?

[skierinvermont]

With what method it is predictable? Any research paper about that?

 

Well it looks like you've already posted some. But the past two years I have presented evidence that the winter AO's sign can be predicted with 90%+ accuracy using solely east Asian stratospheric temperatures in November. It doesn't surprise me that using a more detailed approach you can get the same results a month earlier. 

 

It's pretty simple .. if you have a warm unstable stratosphere the winter AO will almost always be negative. The variables that create a warm unstable stratosphere are already being determined in October and November.

[Crocodile23]

WTF?  WTH?

 

 

You are telling me on Oct 31st we can predict the Dec through March AO within 90 percent accuracy?

 

"Unfortunately" it seems so(if their data/method etc prove to be correct).

And actually it is December-January-February AO and not March also, as i misunderstood in the first place.

But yes they seem to claim that at the end of each October their method for the years 1976 to 2012 has managed to predict the DJF AO with 90% accuracy and in the years 2000-2010 with an even better accuracy!!

 

It's a tragedy for me to hear all these since it destroys my view of the chaotic-nonlinear-entirely-unpredictable nature of weather/climate that no one can penetrate and understand, so it makes me suffer. But the paper is in Italian and it will be published(i guess in English) who knows when, so until then i guess i will suffer....

 

[skierinvermont]

These image shows the correlation between the october index (OPI) and the winter AO to be very strong:

[WidreMann]

"Unfortunately" it seems so(if their data/method etc prove to be correct).

And actually it is December-January-February AO and not March also, as i misunderstood in the first place.

But yes they seem to claim that at the end of each October their method for the years 1976 to 2012 has managed to predict the DJF AO with 90% accuracy and in the years 2000-2010 with an even better accuracy!!

 

It's a tragedy for me to hear all these since it destroys my view of the chaotic-nonlinear-entirely-unpredictable nature of weather/climate that no one can penetrate and understand, so it makes me suffer. But the paper is in Italian and it will be published(i guess in English) who knows when, so until then i guess i will suffer....

 

Why does that bother you? And why is it necessarily true that a non-linear chaotic system have no predictability? Predicting the AO isn't really predicting small details. The AO is a fairly broad phenomenon wherein a particular phase encompasses a huge number of potential atmospheric states, none of which can be predicted in the long or even necessarily the short term.

[Mallow]

These image shows the correlation between the october index (OPI) and the winter AO to be very strong:

 

r = 0.91 does not mean 90% predictability. The pertinent variable is the coefficient of determination, r² = 0.83. This implies that 83% of the variability in the winter AO can be explained/predicted by the variability in this "OPI".

 

Looks like they've taken Cohen's SAI idea and applied it to the "pattern" rather than limiting it to snowfall. I'm guessing this is the pattern over Eurasia. This seems simple enough to test.

[Crocodile23]

r = 0.91 does not mean 90% predictability. The pertinent variable is the coefficient of determination, r² = 0.83. This implies that 83% of the variability in the winter AO can be explained/predicted by the variability in this "OPI".

 

Indeed these are the correct statements, but still we are talking about big numbers of "predictability".

 

 

Why does that bother you? And why is it necessarily true that a non-linear chaotic system have no predictability?

It bothers me, because it destroys my whole world view of the weather/climate prediction to be impenetrable for now, by us. And such a remarkable prediction accuracy about December/January/February even for just an index like AO is annoying as it destroys my whole view.

Also a non linear chaotic system like the weather/climate has been proved to be highly unpredictable. Lorenz has "set" the limit to 2 weeks. Not caring about details we of course may able to make reasonably fair predictions in a seasonal scale about deviations from the mean climatological values, but this to know the winter AO from the end of October is another thing and it's disturbing.

 

Predicting the AO isn't really predicting small details.

Thank god about that! If they predicted some small details also, then i would have started suffocating.

But the problem lies also in the sun. Logically the sun plays "some" role in our atmosphere right?   Well if you can predict the whole winter AO with an about 83% accuracy from the end of October, then that means the solar activity in the winter is only a teeny factor of the winter circulation.

Perhaps it is after all.

And also there is the other reason that of all the other factors of circulation. SSTs, ENSO, QBO, NAO(which perhaps is "equivalent" with AO), AMOC, stratosphere, etc, that interact with countless combinations with each other to produce the final climate/weather of the winter.

So are you telling me, that with just knowing one index in the end of October we are able to know with an excellent accuracy how all these things will combine and interact in order to produce a specific (average) AO value for the winter?

I can't buy it/accept it.

 

The AO is a fairly broad phenomenon wherein a particular phase encompasses a huge number of potential atmospheric states, none of which can be predicted in the long or even necessarily the short term.

Of course but still, this OPI thing is(allegedly) be able to predict an average value of AO for the winter, so ultimately is able to predict from the end of October how the solar activity will go, how the ocean's circulation(AMOC, SSTs, ENSO, etc) will do and combine together with stratosphere behavior like warming etc, with QBO etc, in order to "shape" the circulation in such a manner so to get the right average value of AO for all these interactions, without even knowing the inner workings of these interactions!!

 

I guess of course a Yellowstone super eruption in November would destroy completely the predicting capabilities of OPI, but what about if it erupted in June? Would OPI in the end of October be able to "know" how the volcanic sulfur dioxide will affect the globe and the winter and be able to predict the average AO of the winter even then? Speaking of this, it would be interesting to see how it managed to do in the Pinatubo eruption for the 1991-92 winter. I will look at it hoping it did terrible.

 

All in all it's a strange thing by all means if this OPI works as intended. For me at least.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

I thought the Cohen work was already pervasively known -- we've been discussing it in some of the sub-forums for a while. 

 

And it really is just an extension/sophistication of the hypothesis posed over a decade ago pertaining to the state of the cryosphere and how/why positive and negative autumn anomalies stress the vertical mixing depth of the ambient PV entering DJF.  It really isn't anything revelation.   ...Unless I'm missing something new?

[Ginx snewx]

Uh Tip read again

[The_Global_Warmer]

So how is this OPI coming together for this year.  Or do we have no idea until Nov 1st?

[skierinvermont]

You're just ranting in vague incoherent terms.

 

The chart speaks for itself. The r value is .91.

[Crocodile23]

I thought the Cohen work was already pervasively known -- we've been discussing it in some of the sub-forums for a while. 

 

And it really is just an extension/sophistication of the hypothesis posed over a decade ago pertaining to the state of the cryosphere and how/why positive and negative autumn anomalies stress the vertical mixing depth of the ambient PV entering DJF.  It really isn't anything revelation.   ...Unless I'm missing something new?

 

 Interesting, didn't know about that thanks! But do you have any research papers about this (about cryosphere and how/why positive and negative autumn anomalies stress the vertical mixing depth of the ambient PV entering DJF)?

 

 

So how is this OPI coming together for this year.  Or do we have no idea until Nov 1st?

 

Although only the value in the end of October matters, the authors are making some daily update just for fun for the in-between values which you can find here:

http://www.centrometeotoscana.it/forum/index.php?topic=7364.msg

[weatherwiz]

Even with (or if) you could predict the state of the AO (or NAO) for that matter for the winter season that really doesn't tell you a whole much in the end.  You may be able to lean one way but ultimately there is much more to the story besides whether the state of the index is positive or negative.  It all really comes down to where the strongest anomalies are situated and of course the strength of the index.  

[Mallow]

Even with (or if) you could predict the state of the AO (or NAO) for that matter for the winter season that really doesn't tell you a whole much in the end.  You may be able to lean one way but ultimately there is much more to the story besides whether the state of the index is positive or negative.  It all really comes down to where the strongest anomalies are situated and of course the strength of the index.  

 

To be fair, the high correlation with the SAI (and the "OPI"?) means that you can reasonably forecast the amplitude of the index as well as the sign.

 

Of course, a -AO implies a mid-latitude blocking pattern, but who in the midlatitudes ends up benefiting from the shots of Arctic air is not something that's pre-determined. As we saw last year, a very -AO winter might not actually equate to a very snowy winter in any given location.

[jordanwx]

 It bothers me, because it destroys my whole world view of the weather/climate prediction to be impenetrable for now, by us. And such a remarkable prediction accuracy about December/January/February even for just an index like AO is annoying as it destroys my whole view.

Also a non linear chaotic system like the weather/climate has been proved to be highly unpredictable. Lorenz has "set" the limit to 2 weeks. Not caring about details we of course may able to make reasonably fair predictions in a seasonal scale about deviations from the mean climatological values, but this to know the winter AO from the end of October is another thing and it's disturbing.

 

wtf are you talking about

 

We're looking at one month mean conditions over a broad area and predicting mean conditions over another area over a three month period. Have you never seen an ENSO model? A hurricane season outlook? These are all based on the idea that we can use current mean conditions to predict future mean conditions. In this case it has 83% (r^2 value) predictability (not 91%) which is fairly high compared to ENSO models or hurricane season outlooks, but it's nothing crazy. Lorenz's ideas center on specific things like will it rain in two weeks from now...that is way different than predicting the average signal of the AO over a long time period.

 

 

I suggest you check your pants and chill out. Nothing "world view" changing/destroying to see here.

[Riccardo]

I'm one of the authors of the research. I' can't speak english well, so i can do only a short comment. The most important theoretical construct is the strong correspondence between the october pattern (when the NEW winter VP is being born) and the winter pattern (when the VP ITSELF is "adult"). So the correlation between OPI - winter AO is  the numerical synthesisis of this strong correspondenc. In this page you can see some of this  correspondens (the page is still incomplete):

 

http://www.centrometeotoscana.it/forum/index.php?topic=7371.0

 

As said, the correlation betwwen SAI and winter AO is "only"  a derivative correlation. In fact snow cover shedule and location change in function of the october pattern, that is correlated with winter AO (for this reason the SCE is not correlated, because it doesn't reflect the features of october pattern).For these reason in some particular season, like 2005-2006, the correlation SAI-winter AO is less good: in this season the october patter was very good, but its particular configuration wasn't positive for snow cover advance (SAI).

To conclude it is important to remark that there is a STRONG correspondence between the october pattern (when the NEW winter VP is being born) and the winter pattern (when the VP ITSELF is "adult") and that the correlation between snow cover-winter AO is only a derivative correlation. I think that this discovery can be useful in order to improve the GCM (climatic global model).

 

However the resaerch will traslate into english and after will be issued, so that all you can read. Moreover I tell you that currently the OPI is abaut +1/+1.5, so the winter will be probably a AO++ winter.

 

goodbye

 

Riccardo

[Huffwx]

 

I'm one of the authors of the research. I' can't speak english well, so i can do only a short comment. The most important theoretical construct is the strong correspondence between the october pattern (when the NEW winter VP is being born) and the winter pattern (when the VP ITSELF is "adult"). So the correlation between OPI - winter AO is  the numerical synthesisis of this strong correspondenc. In this page you can see some of this  correspondens (the page is still incomplete):

 

http://www.centrometeotoscana.it/forum/index.php?topic=7371.0

 

As said, the correlation betwwen SAI and winter AO is "only"  a derivative correlation. In fact snow cover shedule and location change in function of the october pattern, that is correlated with winter AO (for this reason the SCE is not correlated, because it doesn't reflect the features of october pattern).For these reason in some particular season, like 2005-2006, the correlation SAI-winter AO is less good: in this season the october patter was very good, but its particular configuration wasn't positive for snow cover advance (SAI).

To conclude it is important to remark that there is a STRONG correspondence between the october pattern (when the NEW winter VP is being born) and the winter pattern (when the VP ITSELF is "adult") and that the correlation between snow cover-winter AO is only a derivative correlation. I think that this discovery can be useful in order to improve the GCM (climatic global model).

 

However the resaerch will traslate into english and after will be issued, so that all you can read. Moreover I tell you that currently the OPI is abaut +1/+1.5, so the winter will be probably a AO++ winter.

 

goodbye

 

Riccardo

 

 

Shocked no comments.. if this is really one of the researchers, that's a horrible harbinger for those of us who like cold and snow.

[Snow_Miser]

Here is the page translated into English. It's Google translate, so it's not perfect, but it gives a rough idea as to what they are saying. Interesting Research, but we'll see if it's valid when the winter arrives.

 

http://www.google.com/translate?hl=en&ie=UTF8&sl=auto&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.centrometeotoscana.it%2Fforum%2Findex.php%3Ftopic%3D7371.0

[mitchnick]

though it is certainly helpful to have a -AO, you don't need it to get a -NAO, which is probably better for the MA if I had to pick between the 2

AO monthly:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/month_ao_index.shtml

NAO monthly:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/month_nao_index.shtml

 

you can see from the graphs that you don't need a -AO for the -NAO

[Spwild47]

I'm one of the authors of the research. I' can't speak english well, so i can do only a short comment. The most important theoretical construct is the strong correspondence between the october pattern (when the NEW winter VP is being born) and the winter pattern (when the VP ITSELF is "adult"). So the correlation between OPI - winter AO is  the numerical synthesisis of this strong correspondenc. In this page you can see some of this  correspondens (the page is still incomplete):

 

http://www.centrometeotoscana.it/forum/index.php?topic=7371.0

 

Looks like you ripped off Cohen's work. His connection between SAI and AO is well documented...there are about 8 steps between SAI and the AO..you simply went to the 2nd step in the process ( the effect of the SAI on the pattern), gave it a name (its the OPI! Wahoo..Ricardo is a genius!) and claim it as original research.

You would make a good climate change scientist lol

As said, the correlation betwwen SAI and winter AO is "only"  a derivative correlation. In fact snow cover shedule and location change in function of the october pattern, that is correlated with winter AO (for this reason the SCE is not correlated, because it doesn't reflect the features of october pattern).For these reason in some particular season, like 2005-2006, the correlation SAI-winter AO is less good: in this season the october patter was very good, but its particular configuration wasn't positive for snow cover advance (SAI).

To conclude it is important to remark that there is a STRONG correspondence between the october pattern (when the NEW winter VP is being born) and the winter pattern (when the VP ITSELF is "adult") and that the correlation between snow cover-winter AO is only a derivative correlation. I think that this discovery can be useful in order to improve the GCM (climatic global model).

 

However the resaerch will traslate into english and after will be issued, so that all you can read. Moreover I tell you that currently the OPI is abaut +1/+1.5, so the winter will be probably a AO++ winter.

 

goodbye

 

Riccardo

I'm one of the authors of the research. I' can't speak english well, so i can do only a short comment. The most important theoretical construct is the strong correspondence between the october pattern (when the NEW winter VP is being born) and the winter pattern (when the VP ITSELF is "adult"). So the correlation between OPI - winter AO is  the numerical synthesisis of this strong correspondenc. In this page you can see some of this  correspondens (the page is still incomplete):

 

http://www.centrometeotoscana.it/forum/index.php?topic=7371.0

 

As said, the correlation betwwen SAI and winter AO is "only"  a derivative correlation. In fact snow cover shedule and location change in function of the october pattern, that is correlated with winter AO (for this reason the SCE is not correlated, because it doesn't reflect the features of october pattern).For these reason in some particular season, like 2005-2006, the correlation SAI-winter AO is less good: in this season the october patter was very good, but its particular configuration wasn't positive for snow cover advance (SAI).

To conclude it is important to remark that there is a STRONG correspondence between the october pattern (when the NEW winter VP is being born) and the winter pattern (when the VP ITSELF is "adult") and that the correlation between snow cover-winter AO is only a derivative correlation. I think that this discovery can be useful in order to improve the GCM (climatic global model).

 

However the resaerch will traslate into english and after will be issued, so that all you can read. Moreover I tell you that currently the OPI is abaut +1/+1.5, so the winter will be probably a AO++ winter.

 

goodbye

 

Riccardo

[Spwild47]

Rip off of Cohens work:

Cohen says:

Step 1: October snow advance causes

Step 2: Perturbation in Siberia ie pattern change and

Step 3: Upward energy flux

Step 4: Disrupt PV

Step 5: Predict DJF AO/NAO 81% variability

Ricardo...

I am a genius I have discovered that at the end of October a Pertubation in Siberia causes a pattern change and upward energy flux that disturbs the PV and predicts 83% variability of DJF AO!

Ricardo demand the Nobel Prize lolololol!

[usedtobe]

though it is certainly helpful to have a -AO, you don't need it to get a -NAO, which is probably better for the MA if I had to pick between the 2

AO monthly:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/month_ao_index.shtml

NAO monthly:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/month_nao_index.shtml

 

you can see from the graphs that you don't need a -AO for the -NAO

I've posted graphs before that actually show a -Ao is actually better for snow than a -NAO at least for getting 4 inch or greater events.    A strongly positive AO would be really bad for us. 

[skierinvermont]

Rip off of Cohens work:

Cohen says:

Step 1: October snow advance causes

Step 2: Perturbation in Siberia ie pattern change and

Step 3: Upward energy flux

Step 4: Disrupt PV

Step 5: Predict DJF AO/NAO 81% variability

Ricardo...

I am a genius I have discovered that at the end of October a Pertubation in Siberia causes a pattern change and upward energy flux that disturbs the PV and predicts 83% variability of DJF AO!

Ricardo demand the Nobel Prize lolololol!

 

Nobody had previously precisely defined the pattern perturbations that take place and quantified them into an index. And then used this index directly to predict the AO, instead of using SAI which is several steps removed, more indirect, and a weaker correlation. They cite Cohen heavily, but this work is a dramatic expansion and improvement over that work. 

 

This isn't "ripping" off of anything.. that's a ridiculous idea.

[Riccardo]

Rip off of Cohens work:

Cohen says:

Step 1: October snow advance causes

Step 2: Perturbation in Siberia ie pattern change and

Step 3: Upward energy flux

Step 4: Disrupt PV

Step 5: Predict DJF AO/NAO 81% variability

Ricardo...

I am a genius I have discovered that at the end of October a Pertubation in Siberia causes a pattern change and upward energy flux that disturbs the PV and predicts 83% variability of DJF AO!

Ricardo demand the Nobel Prize lolololol!

 

I suggest you to read carfully this paragraph:

 

 

WINTER 2005-06

 

"In this new episode of the analyze another great winter season, very fruitful also in the Italian: we speak of the 2005-06 season.

We proceed in the usual way, or imagine we are at the end of October 2005 and will try to trace the projection winter forecast on the basis of the new technique that stems from the recent discovery.

We start from the OPI value at the end of October it closes sharply negative settling on the exact value of -0.73. However, as regards the axis of the vortex, this is extremely inclined (almost on the values ​​of the exceptional 1980-81 season already analyzed). Once again, therefore, it has to do with a very particular month of October, in virtue of the high degree of ellitticizzazione of VP despite it lies on an axis extremely tilted. Below the paper hemispheric 500 hPa geopotential anomalies relative to is highlighted in the axis of the VP axis (black)

 

 

 

As we see the axis (black line ), which is an output element of the software " Telemappa Next Generation" , it is very tilted and the two waves are obviously in position perpendicular to the axis itself. The latter are located in a very special and exactly :

- The wave 1 shifted much to the east (with respect to its natural peaceful ) and centered on the American continent ( the Hudson Bay area ) ;

- Wave 2 also shifted to the east and perfectly centered right on the Scandinavian Peninsula.

As we explained in our research , and as underlined in a previous appointment (analysis of 1980-81 season ) , when the axis is tilted so strongly , the level of intrusiveness of the waves is never over and the VP , even in situations of maximum planetary wave activity , maintains a certain level of "unity / unity " , never arriving to compete division (split ) .

Furthermore , always as anticipated in the episode dedicated to 1980-81 , in these situations in which the axis is very tilted , the SAI loses much ability to pattern playback Ottobrino significantly decreasing its predictive value sull'AO winter . This is because , despite the pattern Ottobrino is present very good ( rate ellitticizzazione high ) , because of an axis of the vortex strongly inclined lunges affect more the area peaceful / extreme Asia and Central Siberia keeps a field geopotential higher. In this regard for the season in analysis ( 2005-06 ), the SAI provided by a winter AO weakly positive while later there was a decidedly negative AO medium .

Ultimately, on the basis of these data inputs can be drawn the following conclusions for the winter season to come (2005-2006) :

- AO quarterly income totaled decidedly negative values ​​(range -0.5/-0.9 ) . In addition, in consideration of what was said above about the stability / compactness partial residual time of maximum wave action and by virtue of the development " chronological " the VP in October ( this very important topic will be treated well in the future) , it is exclude long periods of complete absence of wave activity ( "dead" periods ) and descents cold linked to planetary wave should occur at the level of time, fairly evenly , with greater preponderance in the middle phase of winter (on average, from late December to mid- February).

- With regard to the characteristics of any descents Arctic , this is clear from the scheme of the pattern perfectly Ottobrino ( see again figure on the previous pattern of October). In particular, as mentioned above, there is evidence of a wave Atlantic strongly centered on the Scandinavian Peninsula resulting in recurrence schema SCAND + , with frequent descents with the north- east .

 

Now , as we are not at the end of October 2005 but we are in 2013 then we see how it was the winter :

- Final value of the AO average of -0.81 and therefore close to the expected value of OPI .

- In addition , there has been countless runs cold distributed fairly evenly throughout the quarter and almost all characterized by a clear pattern SCAND + .

 Below is a long series of images ( downloadable from the archives meteociel cards NCEP ) in which it is clear once again a very strong correspondence between the pattern (pattern) of October and what has distinguished the best winter episodes ( episodes it is connected to maximum activity planetary wave ) , with evident recurrence PATTERN SCAND + .

 

 

also in this case any comment on the strong similarities / winter symmetries between the cards and that of October, would definitely compartment and superfluous .

 

In the future will present many more examples of the reanalysis forecast on forecasts made ​​on the basis of this new " technology forecasting ." However, after these first four episodes , emerges very clearly the extraordinary nature of this new approach in terms of improving forecasting capabilities upon forecsast winter season .Is in fact evident as well , in addition to having a highly reliable information on the exact value of the average compactness of VP winter ( milestone unthinkable a short time ago) , it risecano to obtain with ease information relating to the dominant pattern during the winter season already in October , which was not possible (at least with this level of detail ) using the traditional predictive tools (from which we could only get maximum information ) . In addition, combining the final value of OPI to other important considerations that will make public in the next few days, you can get incredibly truthful information about the chronological development of the dynamics winter . And the ease of use of this technique will make it accessible to everyone ( even the less experienced ) the "world of teleconnections " and seasonal forecasts . And of course everything is based on what is most important to the scientific world , or the demonstration of a strong correlation between the VP in its first stage of development and the VP in the same phase of maximum expression and maturity ( this factor may open an important horizon for institutions to calculate the development of more accurate models to forecast seasonal ) .

Finally, we anticipate even now that in the future we will have the ability to implement more about our software applications that allow us to achieve a level of detail and precision even wider ".

 

 

 

In this page you can read the other analysis:

 

http://www.centrometeotoscana.it/forum/index.php?topic=7371.0

 

So in these you can feel the differences between our work and Coehn Work. First our correlation is very most strong; second our work has more consequences both for the actually prediction abilyties and for the future scentific researh development (to understand that the correlation is internal to the polar vortex and that the snow-cover-winter AO is "only" a derivative correlation, rapresent a very important step to improve the forecast model). So our work is a "natural" important  development of Cohen work (as said into the our research).

To conclude I rember you that other authors and I are simple amaterus that have worked only six months in this research (of course during the little free time because of the "real life obbligations"). Instead Cohen is a very important researcher that has been worked about "snow cover phenomena" since 1990.

 

Goodbye

 

 

Riccardo

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[usedtobe]

Riccardo,  has your work been submitted to a peer reviewed journal?  

[Riccardo]

Riccardo,  has your work been submitted to a peer reviewed journal?  

 

 

Unfortunately, in Itlay, there aren't important scientific journals suitable in this arguments. But we have submitted our work to a some famous meteorologists that are very moved and satisfied by it. In any case, we will finisch the traslation of reserarch soon and after we are going to send it to journals and to scientific authoryty. 

Tank you for your interest.

 

Riccardo