Tacoma Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 If that call verifies it would be our best snow since the winter of 10-11! .....yes please. I hope it verifies, it would be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Jason on 13 news showed one computer model the other night for snow totals out of this next storm and it showed Asheville with 2.7 inches. Last night he said this storm would have more snow with it than the last one. I'm hoping. :snowwindow:The snow is suppose to fall to the valley floors very quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Good luck guys. I would gladly take a sweet small dusting ... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 4, 2014 Author Share Posted January 4, 2014 I think 3-5" is far too high. The precip is fast-moving and upslope on the GFS and Euro look weak since the winds are more northerly this time. My best guess for AVL is around 1" if we are lucky. Upslope areas 2-4" only because the wind direction is not genuinely orthogonal enough (yet) for me to go with higher amounts. Sent from my steam-powered printing press. Well one thing this event is much different than what we have seen the last two years but If this is not true NW flow snows then that will temper things a bit. Although think the models have a hard time with these type setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 I think 3-5" is far too high. The precip is fast-moving and upslope on the GFS and Euro look weak since the winds are more northerly this time. My best guess for AVL is around 1" if we are lucky. Upslope areas 2-4" only because the wind direction is not genuinely orthogonal enough (yet) for me to go with higher amounts. Sent from my steam-powered printing press. Thanks for your input man. I think this will be an interesting set up given the type of cold following and our snow rates should be higher then we are typical used to seeing. All in all I will be happy with another event like Thursday night, but I believe the possibility is there for a nice surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 4, 2014 Author Share Posted January 4, 2014 Thanks for your input man. I think this will be an interesting set up given the type of cold following and our snow rates should be higher then we are typical used to seeing. All in all I will be happy with another event like Thursday night, but I believe the possibility is there for a nice surprise. Ya I agree. Tracker thanks for the input. I will be happy just to have snow on the ground whether one inch or 4 inches. Well one thing temps should plummet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Ya I agree. Tracker thanks for the input. I will be happy just to have snow on the ground whether one inch or 4 inches. Well one thing temps should plummet. Yeah the 12z nam showing the -20 line through most of wnc at 60hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K4CF Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 9Z SREF showing almost .4" precip for the entire Sunday/Monday event here in the mtns...some of that will be liquid only though...precip really drops off after 4am Monday morning...SREF not really seeing what GSP is saying about NW flow into Tuesday morning...at least in my humble interpretation of the SREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 4, 2014 Author Share Posted January 4, 2014 DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-FLOYD-BARTOW-CHEROKEE-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CALHOUN...DAHLONEGA...CLEVELAND...ROME...CARTERSVILLE1137 AM EST SAT JAN 4 2014...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGHMONDAY MORNING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED AWINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENINGTHROUGH MONDAY MORNING.* LOCATIONS...ROME TO CANTON TO CLEVELAND AND NORTH.* HAZARD TYPES...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW AND POSSIBLY SLEET SUNDAY EVENING.* ACCUMULATIONS...1/2 INCH TO 2 INCHES WITH UP TO 3 INCHES AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.* TIMING...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.* IMPACTS...MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE FROM SLICK ROADWAYS DUE TO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND BLACK ICE. GUSTY WINDS MAY KNOCK DOWN TREES.* WINDS...INCREASING 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP AROUND 40 MPH.* TEMPERATURES...FALLING TO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTSNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 4, 2014 Author Share Posted January 4, 2014 Interesting NWS has issued a WSW out for North GA. Pretty impressive for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Interesting NWS has issued a WSW out for North GA. Pretty impressive for them. Yeah that is very interesting that they have pulled the trigger on this. I would imagine that Buncombe co. will be placed under at least an advisory in the near future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Yeah that is very interesting that they have pulled the trigger on this. I would imagine that Buncombe co. will be placed under at least an advisory in the near future. After not wrapping the High Wing Warning in a WWA......I am skeptical about GSP. Here is their criteria for a WWA & with out a doubt we met that! Winter Weather Advisory – Hazardous winter weather event producing either: a. Light snow accumulations of at least one inch, but less than Warning criteria. Since snowfall amounts of ½ inch are rounded to an inch for reporting purposes, snow advisories are appropriate for expected amounts of ½ inch or greater across the foothills and piedmont and 2 inches across the mountains. Advisories can also be issued for “impact events” where a dusting of snow on very cold road surfaces can lead to numerous accidents. b. Light sleet accumulations of less than ½ inch. c. Widespread or localized blowing snow reducing visibilities to ¼ mile or less with winds less than 35 mph. d. Light snow and blowing snow where sustained winds, or frequent gusts, of 25 to 34 mph are accompanied by falling and blowing snow, occasionally reducing visibility to ¼ mile or less for three hours or more. e. Winter weather events with multiple precipitation types in which at least one precipitation element meets or exceeds Advisory criteria. Or, a winter weather event Advisory-level event plus Advisory criteria wind speeds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 After not wrapping the High Wing Warning in a WWA......I am skeptical about GSP. Here is their criteria for a WWA & with out a doubt we met that! Winter Weather Advisory – Hazardous winter weather event producing either: a. Light snow accumulations of at least one inch, but less than Warning criteria. Since snowfall amounts of ½ inch are rounded to an inch for reporting purposes, snow advisories are appropriate for expected amounts of ½ inch or greater across the foothills and piedmont and 2 inches across the mountains. Advisories can also be issued for “impact events” where a dusting of snow on very cold road surfaces can lead to numerous accidents. b. Light sleet accumulations of less than ½ inch. c. Widespread or localized blowing snow reducing visibilities to ¼ mile or less with winds less than 35 mph. d. Light snow and blowing snow where sustained winds, or frequent gusts, of 25 to 34 mph are accompanied by falling and blowing snow, occasionally reducing visibility to ¼ mile or less for three hours or more. e. Winter weather events with multiple precipitation types in which at least one precipitation element meets or exceeds Advisory criteria. Or, a winter weather event Advisory-level event plus Advisory criteria wind speeds. I think we could have checked off every single one of those on Thursday night. Looking at that I am not sure what will have to occur for us to get the advisory. You would think that temps below 0 F would be considered an "impact event" especially with any moisture around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 I think we could have checked off every single one of those on Thursday night. Looking at that I am not sure what will have to occur for us to get the advisory. You would think that temps below 0 F would be considered an "impact event" especially with any moisture around. I wondered that too. We had winter storm warnings last year than for less than we had the other night. Not a knock on GSP, because they do a great job. That one was a little puzzling to me though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 I wondered that too. We had winter storm warnings last year than for less than we had the other night. Not a knock on GSP, because they do a great job. That one was a little puzzling to me though.I remember last year they issued a few warnings for Asheville that never came close to panning out. I was always wondering why when it was clear it would be a non event for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 I remember last year they issued a few warnings for Asheville that never came close to panning out. I was always wondering why when it was clear it would be a non event for them. Maybe they were burned to many times last year and have decided to be conservative this year. That is the only thing I can think of because Thursday's event I feel would have had an advisory if it would have occurred last year. Thus, I am not so relent on them and their advisories to determine whether or not I will prepare. I guess that's why I am here lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Maybe they were burned to many times last year and have decided to be conservative this year. That is the only thing I can think of because Thursday's event I feel would have had an advisory if it would have occurred last year. Thus, I am not so relent on them and their advisories to determine whether or not I will prepare. I guess that's why I am here lol.there was a couple inches in northern Macon county with no advisory. Thats the norm here tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 4, 2014 Author Share Posted January 4, 2014 I remember last year they issued a few warnings for Asheville that never came close to panning out. I was always wondering why when it was clear it would be a non event for them. Ya last weeks event meets a WWA criteria level for Asheville and the surrounding areas. I can remember an event last year when we had no advisory or warning and we ended up with 8 inches of snow. Not trying to criticize the NWS but there were several accidents in Asheville Thursday night which could have been prevented if there had been an advisory. Oh well not in there shoes so what do I know. All I do know i that we are going to get more snow and it is going to get frigid here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 12Z Euro trumps the GFS and the NAM today. It's the only model holding onto 1-2" of widespread snow for all of the mountain locations late Sunday night. NAM is off on its placement of the surface low and the GFS is oddly exceptionally dry. Euro is a nice compromise for the forecast. Again, upslope period looks rather brief, ending by noon Monday. But it won't matter too much as everyone will see synoptic-snows on Sunday night. This sets the stage for impressive cold. Here again the Euro wins because GFS has no snow and NAM is only showing freezing rain instead of snow. With all the snow upstream and even the 1" snow depth we should have here, I see no reason why ridges and valleys should go below zero both in temperature and wind chill. Monday should be very nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 4, 2014 Author Share Posted January 4, 2014 12Z Euro trumps the GFS and the NAM today. It's the only model holding onto 1-2" of widespread snow for all of the mountain locations late Sunday night. NAM is off on its placement of the surface low and the GFS is oddly exceptionally dry. Euro is a nice compromise for the forecast. Again, upslope period looks rather brief, ending by noon Monday. But it won't matter too much as everyone will see synoptic-snows on Sunday night. This sets the stage for impressive cold. Here again the Euro wins because GFS has no snow and NAM is only showing freezing rain instead of snow. With all the snow upstream and even the 1" snow depth we should have here, I see no reason why ridges and valleys should go below zero both in temperature and wind chill. Monday should be very nasty. Thanks for the post Tracker. Will be a very nasty day Monday. Just got through bringing in a load of wood in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 4, 2014 Author Share Posted January 4, 2014 I suspect the TN boarder counties will get a Winter weather watch either tonight or tomorrow morning as the counties on the TN side of the APPS already have one issued for them. JOHNSON-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST GREENE-UNICOI-SOUTHEAST CARTER-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST MONROE-WISE-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNTAIN CITY...COSBY...CEDAR CREEK...ERWIN...ROAN MOUNTAIN...CADES COVE...GATLINBURG...COKER CREEK...WISE...NORTON314 PM EST SAT JAN 4 2014...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGHMONDAY EVENING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGHMONDAY EVENING.* EVENT...BETWEEN 2 AND 5 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WITH UP TO 7 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHEST PEAKS. COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS.* TIMING...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TOWARD MIDNIGHT SUNDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY.* IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED ROADS WILL MAKE DRIVING HAZARDOUS. PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES BELOW ONE HALF OF A MILE MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS. THE LOW WIND CHILLS CAN RESULT IN FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA OR EVEN DEATH IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Are any of you taking precautions to prevent frozen pipes or taking any other precautions? Just seems quite in here given the snow threat and some of the coldest air any of us have seen. I'm impressed with how the euro sniffed this out from a week out. Had Boone at -20 and Robert said he sees at least -17. I think that's pretty impressive to sees those historic temps from that far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 5, 2014 Author Share Posted January 5, 2014 Are any of you taking precautions to prevent frozen pipes or taking any other precautions? Just seems quite in here given the snow threat and some of the coldest air any of us have seen. I'm impressed with how the euro sniffed this out from a week out. Had Boone at -20 and Robert said he sees at least -17. I think that's pretty impressive to sees those historic temps from that far out Ya made sure all pipes were wrapped good with installation. We are putting a little heater in the seller to make sure it does not get to cold and freeze the pipes even if they are wrapped. Going to check all the vehicles tomorrow. Loaded up on wood today and busted a bunch of smaller pieces to help get the wood lit. Busted up some lighter wood also. Making sure the animals will be warm and just hunkering down. This is pretty amazing but I do not think it has really set in at how extreme this is for around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Projected totals for Monday issued by GSP and RNK http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gsp/stormtotal/stormtotal.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Projected totals for Monday issued by GSP and RNK http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gsp/stormtotal/stormtotal.shtml I see where Buncombe County is 1-2 inches in the entire county and one model on 13 news showed Buncombe County with 2.7 inches of snow but GSP doesn't seem to be saying a lot about the snow total yet, very conservative I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Projected totals for Monday issued by GSP and RNK Leaving the door open for the lee side to see a few flakes.. With the forecasted wind speed and trajectory, I even might see some flakes in the southern end of foothills. Bundle up folks! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 I see where Buncombe County is almost 1-2 inches in the entire county and one model on 13 news showed Buncombe County with 2.7 inches of snow but GSP doesn't seem to be saying a lot about the snow total yet, very conservative I guess. Every time that they have shown that model, I have heard them say that they thought that amount was very aggressive. GSP does not seem impressed with the snow possibilities at all. Ray's weather says less than an inch of snow. I don't think 1 to 2 inches is conservative. I will be surprised if we get any more than last time. ( I would be glad to be wrong) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Here is part of the GSP overnight. You can see by the wording why they have some reservation. SNOW PRODUCTION WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE TN BORDER THROUGHOUT MONDAYAS TEMPS FALL AND MOISTURE IS PUSHED UP THE W SIDE OF THE MTNS.THERE ARE SOME MIXED SIGNALS AS TO WHAT THE POTENTIAL FORACCUMULATION WILL BE. ON THE ONE HAND...THE MODELS FCST WEAK SFCBASED CAPE UPSTREAM...BUT THE SURFACE MIGHT BE FREEZING BY MONDAYAFTERNOON UPSTREAM...WHICH MIGHT CUT BACK ON MOISTURE FLUX FROM THEGROUND. THERE SHOULD BE SOME MID LEVEL FORCING IN THE AFTERNOON ASDPVA MOVES OVERHEAD...BUT THE 850MB WIND RETAINS A MORE WESTERLYCOMPONENT...WHICH ALSO DOES NOT ALLOW FOR A GREAT LAKES CONNECTION.THESE MIGHT PROVE TO BE LIMITING FACTORS...SO THE POTENTIAL LOOKS TOBE SOMEWHERE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 3-5 INCHES ON MTN PEAKS AND 2INCHES IN THE VALLEYS. GIVEN THAT NEIGHBORING OFFICES ARE GOING WITHA WARNING...THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION WILL BE TO ALSO GO WITH AWINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE COUNTIES ALONG THE TN BORDER STARTINGAT MIDNIGHT AND RUNNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY. NOTE THAT ONLY THERIDGETOPS ARE LIKELY TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA ACCUMULATION...WHILETHE VALLEYS WILL GET LESS SNOW...BUT THAT PERHAPS THE IMPACT OFBLOWING SNOW AND VERY COLD TEMPS MIGHT MAKE IT DANGEROUS ENOUGH THATPUBLIC IMPACT JUSTIFIES THE WARNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Every time that they have shown that model, I have heard them say that they thought that amount was very aggressive. GSP does not seem impressed with the snow possibilities at all. Ray's weather says less than an inch of snow. I don't think 1 to 2 inches is conservative. I will be surprised if we get any more than last time. ( I would be glad to be wrong) Yes I also believe the 1-2 inches is about right for Buncombe County but what I was saying I'm not really seeing a lot of talk about the 1-2 inches either. I'm reading talk about 1/2 inch maybe and this is what I was saying seems conservative. Any way you look at it the roads will probably freeze again just like Friday morning with snow on top so you would think that a wwa would be issued for the very slick roads Monday morning. There were numerous wrecks and road closures on Friday morning because of this same setup Friday morning in Buncombe County and this looks like the same thing will happen Monday morning. I think schools will be closed Tuesday morning just for the dangerous wind chills. With those temps some of the school buses will not start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 5, 2014 Author Share Posted January 5, 2014 AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...BRYSON CITY...WAYNESVILLE441 AM EST SUN JAN 5 2014...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PMEST MONDAY......WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAYMORNING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUEDA WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROMMIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY. A WIND CHILL WATCH HAS ALSOBEEN ISSUED. THIS WIND CHILL WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAYEVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.* LOCATIONS...THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER.* HAZARDS...PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO SNOW EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL FALL THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER.* TIMING...PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...AND AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES AT MOUNTAIN PEAKS AND RIDGETOPS...WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW.* IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF SNOW ACCUMULATION AND POOR VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING SNOW WILL MAKE TRAVEL CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS ON MONDAY...PARTICULARLY AT THE HIGH ELEVATIONS. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BECOME DANGEROUSLY COLD BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY KNOCK DOWN SOME TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES RESULTING IN SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.* TEMPERATURES...FALLING STEADILY THROUGH THE 20S MONDAY MORNING...TEENS MONDAY AFTERNOON...TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY SUNSET MONDAY.* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.* WIND CHILL VALUES...DROPPING BELOW ZERO STARTING AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY...AND DIPPING DOWN BELOW MINUS TEN BY SUNSET MONDAY.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHERCONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECASTTHAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IFYOU MUST TRAVEL...BE SURE TO TAKE ALONG YOUR CELL PHONE. WEAR AWARM COAT...GLOVES...AND BOOTS. KEEP A BLANKET...FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.A WIND CHILL WATCH MEANS THE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACOMBINATION OF VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS TO CREATEDANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES. MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTSAND WARNINGS FOR UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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