doncat Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 It definitely doesn't look very mild next week, it doesn't even hit 50F, I agree about it being near normal if not slightly below. Yeah, first few days of Dec still have mid 40's for avg highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 Earlier MJO forecasts had it propagating through phases 1 & 2 which would have been very favorable for us. Now it looks to pass them up and move to phase 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 I really don't see the first week of December 2013 as being "mild." There's going to be weak CAA most of the week, many overcast days and one day with a 55-60 F just prior to the frontal passage before real cold enters the East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 12z GFS almost wants to pull a repeat of today day ten. GGEM has it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 27, 2013 Author Share Posted November 27, 2013 ECMWF has an interesting system Day 6-7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 The Euro also has some light snow possible on Sunday morning with the 850 freezing line well south and surface temps in the low to mid 30's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 ECMWF has an interesting system Day 6-7. Euro trended a lot colder with that system. If it tracked a bit closer to the coast and wasn't so moisture starved it might produce for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 brutal cold out west on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 We really don't warm up at all or only for a day or so on models now. Looks like the cold wins again this year. Thank the EPO for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 We really don't warm up at all or only for a day or so on models now. Looks like the cold wins again this year. Thank the EPO for that. Amazing how much power the EPO has. It can almost overwhelm a +AO/NAO and a -PNA, however; that almost is a fine line when it comes to snow so a little help from the other teleconnections would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 Amazing how much power the EPO has. It can almost overwhelm a +AO/NAO and a -PNA, however; that almost is a fine line when it comes to snow so a little help from the other teleconnections would be nice. It would be nice to get one other teleconnector on our side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 12z GFS almost wants to pull a repeat of today day ten. GGEM has it too. No it does not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 who cares, it's 10 days away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 12z gfs is a weenie run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 I don't really love the 12z GFS, the +PNA never forms, so we have a -PNA & no ATL blocking, the cold is probably overdone with its low resolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 Cold overdone? That has not been the case this fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 I don't really love the 12z GFS, the +PNA never forms, so we have a -PNA & no ATL blocking, the cold is probably overdone with its low resolution. So long as the EPO holds steady, the cold may be spot-on. Without help from the other teleconnectors though, it'll be like pulling teeth to getting any substantial frozen precip in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 Those cooler waters near Greenland and warmer waters in N Pac seem to have changed things this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 Cold overdone? That has not been the case this fall. I agree. The cold has been established pretty well this fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 I think if anything we might be looking at any potential warm up as overdone.. Cold air has def been winning out as of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 Epic weenie storm on the gfs at 348 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 found it... year dates............max...60+....coments... 12/01-07/1912........64....2.....mild snowless winter but had the snowiest Christmas Eve on record... 12/01-08/1932........63....3.....mild but did have above average snowfall and mid December snowstorm... 12/07-13/1946........70....4.....mild until February when it turned cold and snowy into March... 12/01-09/1951........64....6.....Mid month winter storm with snow sleet and rain and cold wave...mild winter with some snow... 12/04-10/1953........63....4.....mild December...Cold and snowy January...Mild after... 12/03-08/1956........67....2.....mild December...Cold and snowy January...seasonable after... 12/03-07/1960........64....2.....very cold December with a blizzard on the 12th...Cold snowy winter... 12/01-06/1962........68....1.....very cold December...some snow on the 11th..very cold winter with little snow... 12/06-11/1966........66....4.....Cold second half of December with a snowstorm Christmas eve...cold snowy winter... 12/01-04/1970........66....2.....cold December with snow and sleet just before Christmas...Cold winter with little snow... 12/06-10/1980........64....2.....cold second half of December with snow just before Christmas...Christmas cold wave...cold with little snow... 12/01-08/1982........72....3.....snow on the 12th...mild but snowy winter... 12/01-08/1998........75....6.....snow just before Christmas otherwise a mild and snowless winter... 12/01-07/2001........71....5.....mild snowless winter... Thanks for the stats, Uncle W. So it appears to be a toss-up in regards to the final winter outcomes from warm December 1-7 periods. Wonder how many of those mild Week 1 Decembers followed a below normal November, as looks to be the case this year. Hard to imagine why the first week in December exclusively would have such a strong correlation to the rest of the winter. Before Uncle W posted those stats, I was thinking that there may have been a weak correlation based on the winters I have seen during my lifetime. For example, if I recall correctly during the epic 2010-2011 winter, that first week of December featured max temps that barely got above freezing and low temps in the 20s all week, which was way below normal. However, in the non-existent winter of 2011-2012, the first week of December was exceptionally mild. I think that same phenomenon happened for last winter, which may have correlated to NYC not getting above-average snowfall. It also seems to me that well-below normal temperatures has to set in early on in the winter months rather than later in order for us to realize above-average winter snowfall. For instance, during the winter of 2006-2007, below-normal temps did not settle in until January, which was too late for us to reach our seasonal snowfall average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 Looking at the long range GFS, plenty of chances for storms. I wish for us to get 100 inches of snow with endless blizzards this winter... just not on December 10th, please. I need to use the airport that one day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 just bantering... it will be interesting to see how last winter compares to this winter in terms of snowfall. Last year featured mostly borderline events with poor snow ratios...this year heading into december is fairly dry with a greater than average chance of arctic intrusions.. do we score well with a swfe that has higher ratios(20:1), even though overall less precip falls...and does this average out to similar snowfall as last year even though the means are completely different? Would be interesting to have a relatively cold/dry pattern hold, and end up with normal or above normal snowfall..yet still end up with drought conditions heading into next summer. excuse the bantery banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Don't know what caused him to suddenly modify his previous outlook, but Don S. pretty much cancelled winter for everyone south of New England at least for December. Here is his teleconnections map from the main forums. What a raging blowtorch.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 The huge arctic high coming down for the second week of December looks pretty impressive, the gfs develops a couple of shortwaves ahead of it, maybe one can arrive as the cold does and we get something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Its too early to cancel December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Its too early to cancel December No question about it. Anyone canceling a whole month of winter is being silly. Even in a bad pattern, you can threat the needle and get a big snowstorm. Also as jetski09 hinted at, the 2nd week of December is looking interesting. With cold air to work with, you never know what could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 I don't think Don is canceling anything. He's only citing what the teliconnectors are indicating in conjunction with the analogues. He feels the EPO negative state will relax mid month resulting in a torched east due to the +AO flexing its influence. Historically, he's shown that the analogues do not maintain a -EPO for more than 30 days. Of course it's happened and it could happen this year but the odds of that are less than those of it becoming predominately neutral or positive. It could be another rough winter snow lover wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 As long as the source region is cold and below normal then we will get shots of cold air even if the overall pattern is mild. If we time a cold shot with a disturbance like in 2008, then we could get some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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