Floydbuster Posted August 15, 2013 Share Posted August 15, 2013 000WTNT45 KNHC 150238TCDAT5TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL0520131100 PM AST WED AUG 14 2013ASCAT DATA FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING INDICATED THAT THE AREA OF LOWPRESSURE NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS AN INNER CORE REGION OFLIGHT WINDS SURROUNDED BY A BAND OF STRONGER WINDS NEAR 30 KT...BUTTHE CENTER APPEARS SUFFICIENTLY WELL DEFINED TO FIT THE DEFINITIONOF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE ONLY T1.0FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 0000 UTC...BUT GIVEN RECENT CONVECTIVE TRENDSAND THE OVERALL STRUCTURE...ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED ONTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE.THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS CONDUCIVE FORSTRENGTHENING...CHARACTERIZED BY LOW WIND SHEAR...WARM SSTS...AND AMOIST AIR MASS. THIS ENVIRONMENT...HOWEVER...WILL BECOME A LITTLELESS FAVORABLE IN A FEW DAYS WHEN THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REACHSLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS AND A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. IN ADDITION...THE DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO BE CUT OFF FROM ITS DEEP MOISTURESOURCE TO THE SOUTH IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. THEREFORE...MODESTSTRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH THEFIRST 48 HOURS WITH SOME WEAKENING BY THE END OF THE FORECASTPERIOD. THIS FORECAST IS VERY NEAR THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NARROWMID-LEVEL RIDGE...AND IT HAS AN INITIAL MOTION OF 290/12 KT. THERIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER WEAK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO ACLOSED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED SOUTH OF THE AZORES...ANDTHIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARDTRAJECTORY THROUGH THE FIRST 3 DAYS. ONCE WEAKENING BEGINS IN 4 TO5 DAYS...LOWER-LEVEL FLOW WILL TAKE OVER AND SHOULD STEER THESYSTEM ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDLMODEL...WHICH SHOWS A SLOWER AND MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTION...THEOTHER TRACK MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH 5 DAYS. THE NHCTRACK FORECAST IS THEREFORE VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 15/0300Z 14.0N 23.5W 30 KT 35 MPH12H 15/1200Z 14.5N 25.2W 35 KT 40 MPH24H 16/0000Z 15.1N 27.9W 40 KT 45 MPH36H 16/1200Z 15.7N 30.6W 45 KT 50 MPH48H 17/0000Z 16.5N 32.9W 50 KT 60 MPH72H 18/0000Z 17.5N 37.0W 50 KT 60 MPH96H 19/0000Z 17.5N 41.5W 45 KT 50 MPH120H 20/0000Z 17.5N 46.0W 40 KT 45 MPH$$FORECASTER BERG/STEWART Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 15, 2013 Share Posted August 15, 2013 Dorian V.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 15, 2013 Share Posted August 15, 2013 It is not a big deal, but on the NHC home page they have the symbol of T.D. five as 'o'. I always thought a T.D. symbol was an 'L'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 15, 2013 Share Posted August 15, 2013 It is not a big deal, but on the NHC home page they have the symbol of T.D. five as 'o'. I always thought a T.D. symbol was an 'L'. They did that with Zombie Dorian as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AutoPenalti Posted August 15, 2013 Share Posted August 15, 2013 It is not a big deal, but on the NHC home page they have the symbol of T.D. five as 'o'. I always thought a T.D. symbol was an 'L'.It's a new thing and it probably replaced it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 15, 2013 Author Share Posted August 15, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 15, 2013 Share Posted August 15, 2013 BULLETINTROPICAL STORM ERIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2ANWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013800 AM AST THU AUG 15 2013...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ERIN WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THESOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION----------------------------------------------LOCATION...14.5N 25.6WABOUT 65 MI...100 KM WSW OF BRAVA IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDSMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted August 15, 2013 Share Posted August 15, 2013 Some dry air getting wrapped around the circulation of Erin... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkSC Posted August 15, 2013 Share Posted August 15, 2013 Erin will be an interesting test of the relative skill (or lack thereof) of the models and the NHC at forecasting strength of tropical systems. The conditions ahead of it are fair but not particularly hostile. It certainly has a better chance than Dorian had. I like the NHC forecast of a steady perhaps slightly weakening tropical storm, but I could see Erin surprising on the up or downside too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 15, 2013 Share Posted August 15, 2013 Weenieism watch Glass quarter full optimism, what is left of Erin will be Northeast of the Greater Antilles at hour 192 per 6Z GFS. Post truncation GFS doesn't regenerate it. Moisture wise, not in a very favorable place, but it is forecast under an upper ridge with light winds over the remnant but 35 knot knot 250mb winds just North of it which could help with upward motion. (Proper placement of remnant vorticity obviously important, to be South of the shear and not in the shear) And decent enough heat potential if it does get convectively active again, it might be able to modify/overcome somewhat dry air. And by staying weak, even degenerating back into a wave, it has a much better chance of getting within striking range of the US East Coast Big picture Euro MJO forecast looks decent enough, maybe MV or Phil or one of the other Albany heavies will weigh in on whether this might encounter favorable or unfavorable shorter period conditions, CCKWs and all that when it gets towards the Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 15, 2013 Share Posted August 15, 2013 Euro turns the remnants of Erin into the C Atlantic around 60W. Just FYI, Ed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 15, 2013 Share Posted August 15, 2013 Euro turns the remnants of Erin into the C Atlantic around 60W. Just FYI, Ed. I read the NHC discussion this morning. (And first thing I do this time of year after waking up while drinking coffee is hit PSU tropical 4 panels and Euro 240 hour 850 mb vorticity forecasts. I skip NavGem and Canadian if in a rush) All depends on how fast it weakens, I suppose. But I am sort of assuming the NHC forecast track is close and the intensity forecast is a touch optimistic. Euro does seem to be winning the overall war on 92L. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 15, 2013 Share Posted August 15, 2013 A small tidbit favoring my natural see the silver lining in any situation optimism. 0 00WTNT45 KNHC 151440TCDAT5TROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL0520131100 AM AST THU AUG 15 2013THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE CYCLONE HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVEOVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS VERY COLD CLOUDTOPS SITUATED NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE ESTIMATED CENTERPOSITION...WITH A SMALL BANDING FEATURE EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHWEST.THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT IS SUPPORTED BY A BLEND OF THELATEST OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES AND A 1102 UTCASCAT-A PASS THAT SHOWED WINDS OF 32 KT. ERIN IS EXPECTED TO BE INAN ENVIRONMENT THAT SUPPORTS SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXTCOUPLE OF DAYS WITH SSTS OF 26-27C...LOW SHEAR...AND A MOISTENVIRONMENT. BY DAY 3...THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO A DRIER ANDMORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...WHICH SHOULD RESULT INWEAKENING. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE HWRF SHOW A WEAK ORDISSIPATING SYSTEM BY DAY 5...HOWEVER THE SHIPS AND LGEM SHOWLITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY OR EVEN STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIALFORECAST LEANS A LITTLE TOWARD THE WEAKER SOLUTION AT DAYS 4 AND 5.THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS WAS ALSO HELPFUL IN LOCATING THECENTER OF ERIN...WHICH IS A LITTLE SOUTH AND WEST OF PREVIOUSESTIMATES. BASED ON A SOUTHWESTWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE CENTERPOSITION THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/13. ERIN IS CURRENTLYBEING STEERED BY A NARROW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH...AND THEGUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS MOTION CONTINUING FOR THENEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BY DAY 3...THE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCEINCREASES. ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THE GFDL...GFDL ENSEMBLE MEAN...ECMWF AND UKMET SHOW A NORTHWESTWARD ORWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE FIM...GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ANDHWRF ALL SHOW A WESTWARD TRACK...CONSISTENT WITH A SHALLOWER SYSTEMBEING STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NHC FORECAST AT DAYS 3THROUGH 5 CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THIS SOUTHERN CAMP OF MODELS AND ISLARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 15/1500Z 14.4N 26.5W 35 KT 40 MPH12H 16/0000Z 15.0N 28.6W 40 KT 45 MPH24H 16/1200Z 15.7N 31.2W 45 KT 50 MPH36H 17/0000Z 16.7N 33.5W 45 KT 50 MPH48H 17/1200Z 17.4N 35.8W 50 KT 60 MPH72H 18/1200Z 18.0N 40.0W 50 KT 60 MPH96H 19/1200Z 18.0N 44.5W 45 KT 50 MPH120H 20/1200Z 18.0N 49.0W 35 KT 40 MPH$$FORECASTER BRENNAN EDIT TO ADD: Looks like the 12Z GFS gets the Erin remnants far enough North if there is anything there at all it is being captured by a small disturbance passing by to its North in 7 1/2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 15, 2013 Share Posted August 15, 2013 Meh-rin already feeling some of the stable air and lower SST's... Does have a large fetch though: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 Well, that is depressing. /get it, depressing, depression... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AutoPenalti Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 Lol this one put up even less of a fight than Dorian did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 Lol this one put up even less of a fight than Dorian did. As noted on main tropics forum, she is sacrificing her life to clear out the SAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 As noted on main tropics forum, she is sacrificing her life to clear out the SAL.Not really sure where this meme is coming from, but there's another SAL right behind Erin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 Not really sure where this meme is coming from, but there's another SAL right behind Erin. Doesn't look like it'll be that bad South of 20ºN, and anything starting out near that isn't coming to America anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 17, 2013 Share Posted August 17, 2013 looks like a fish is becoming likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 17, 2013 Share Posted August 17, 2013 But she isn't going down without a fight, even if she will sleep with Lucca Brazzi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 17, 2013 Share Posted August 17, 2013 TS Erin... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.