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Severe Weather Text Product Game


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I figured it might be fun to start some kind of game to get us through the July doldrums.

 

I would post some or all of either an AC, MD, WW, or AFD, and then everyone would guess the event.  Text products only though, no maps.

 

Before I waste my time laying down rules and looking for the first case...would anyone be interested in playing?

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3127318-1738471609-tumbl.jpg

 

Anyone will be allowed to jump in at any time.

 

I will post either a snippet or all of a Convective Outlook, Mesoscale Discussion, Weather Watch, or Area Forecast Discussion that pertains to a significant severe weather event (most will be tornadoes or derechoes but there might be some flash flooding thrown in as well).

 

Archives of such products are only available back to 2002-2004 or so, and AFDs only since 2009, so these will all be relatively recent events.

 

Obviously, dates will be blacked out in the products.  

 

I am looking for a guess that is the correct date - day, month, and year.

 

If you think you know the case, but you're not sure what day it happened on, you may look up the actual date.  (For example, if you know it's the Andover, KS tornado but you don't know the date, you could Google it and find April 26, 1991, submit it, and win.)  However, you are not allowed to go into the archives and check any text products of that day to "check" if you're right before submitting.  That's cheating.  And while there's really no way to enforce it, keep in mind that the game is really only fun if everyone plays fairly. 

 

I will not post intentionally-misleading products.  I will not post any significant forecast busts (such as the forecast the day of the Washington, DC derecho).  I will also not post irrelevant products, like an MD from Maine the same day as tornado outbreak in Nebraska.  

 

First one to correctly guess is the winner.  So as not to clutter the thread, I will only post when someone guesses correctly.  

 

Edited: The winner then picks the next product for everyone to guess on.

 

Sound good?

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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0729 AM CDT _______________
   
   VALID _______ - _________
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
   MN...WESTERN WI...AND EXTREME WESTERN UPPER MI...
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
   NORTHEAST KS...SOUTHEAST NEB...NORTHWEST MO...AND SOUTHWEST IA...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WEST TX...ACROSS MUCH OF
   THE CENTRAL PLAINS...INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...
   
   ...AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
   TONIGHT ALONG AN AXIS FROM NORTHERN WI INTO KS...
   
   ...MN/WI/WRN UP...
   DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS PRESENT TODAY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
   LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST REGION.  SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE ARE
   DRAWING MOISTURE NORTHWARD WITH DEWPOINTS RISING THROUGH THE 60S
   OVER IA/EASTERN SD/SOUTHWEST MN.  THIS AREA SHOULD SEE RATHER STRONG
   HEATING BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS LOW CLOUDS
   DISSIPATE...LEADING TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA SHOW STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE
   VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
   DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP INTO
   MN DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THESE STORMS WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS
   PARTS OF WI AND INTO WESTERN UPPER MI DURING THE EVENING.  VERTICAL
   SHEAR PROFILES IN THIS AREA SUGGEST A RISK OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
   VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES /SOME POSSIBLY STRONG/.
   
   ...KS/NEB/MO/IA...
   A LARGE COMPLEX OF HIGH-BASED CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED HEAT BURSTS
   HAVE BEEN AFFECTING PARTS OF OK/KS OVERNIGHT.  THIS ACTIVITY HAS
   DISRUPTED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN INTO KS.  NEVERTHELESS...PRESENT
   INDICATIONS ARE THAT A MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BECOME
   ESTABLISHED OVER MUCH OF THIS REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
   DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S AND MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2500 J/KG. 
   SCATTERED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
   SURFACE DRY/TROUGH LINE AND PROPAGATE EASTWARD INTO THE MOIST AXIS
   THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.  VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /SUCH
   AS SEEN ON 12Z AMA SOUNDING/ AND INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE LOW/DEEP
   LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AFTER 21Z WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE
   OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES.  STORMS
   ARE EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE INTO A LINEAR MCS DURING THE EVENING
   AND ACCELERATE EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN KS AND SOUTHEAST
   NEB...EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO NORTHWEST MO AND SOUTHWEST IA AFTER
   MIDNIGHT.  WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
   THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
   
   FROM THE OK PANHANDLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS WEST TX...FULL SUNSHINE IS
   EXPECTED ALONG THE SURFACE DRYLINE.  THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A
   PERIOD OF LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS AXIS. 
   PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT STORMS WILL REMAIN IN A RELATIVELY
   NARROW CORRIDOR NEAR THE DRYLINE BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER DARK. 
   LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE
   STORMS.
   
   ..HART/GRAMS..

Let's start off with a (hopefully) easy one!

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Next one!

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION ____
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0151 PM CDT ___ ___ __ _____
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN/CENTRAL SD AND ND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID __1851Z - __2015Z
   
   A TORNADO WATCH IS LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE WRN/CENTRAL DAKOTAS BY
   MID AFTERNOON.
   
   AT 18Z...WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WERE LOCATED IN ERN MT AND SWRN
   SD...WITH A WEAK FRONT/TROUGH CONNECTING THE TWO LOW PRESSURE
   SYSTEMS. FROM THE LOW IN SRN SD...A WARM FRONT STRETCHED EWD THROUGH
   THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WAS
   LOCATED IN NRN ND IN REGION OF STRONG LOW LEVEL JET/WARM ADVECTION.
   THE UPDRAFT OF THIS STORM IS SITUATED AROUND 850 MB AND GIVEN THE
   STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT AS IT MOVES
   NEWD.
   
   HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW AN UPPER WAVE
   AND JET MAX WILL BE MOVING NEWD FROM WY INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS LATER
   THIS AFTERNOON. THESE FEATURES SHOULD AID IN CONVECTION DEVELOPING
   OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN WY AND THEN SPREADING INTO THE
   WRN/CENTRAL DAKOTAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE AIR MASS EAST
   AND SOUTH OF THE PRE-MENTIONED FRONTS WAS VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES
   NEAR 3000 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY PLUS EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 60 KT
   WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSE SUPERCELLS. THOUGH VERY LARGE
   HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...THE MOISTENING BOUNDARY
   LAYER AND STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WARM
   FRONT...WHICH WILL BE LIFTING SLOWLY NWD TOWARD THE SD/ND
   BORDER..WILL SUPPORT TORNADOES. EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND WEAKER
   INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST NORTH OF WARM FRONT AND THOUGH THIS MAY
   LIMIT THE NWD EXTENT OF SEVERE WEATHER SOMEWHAT...ELEVATED
   SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL ARE ALSO EXPECTED NORTH OF THE WARM
   FRONT.
   
   ..IMY..
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I left one big clue in.  Shouldn't be too bad.

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION ____
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1135 AM CST ___ ___ __ _____
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IND...SRN LWR MI...NW OH
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID __1735Z - __1930Z
   
   WW MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
   
   WEAK TO MODERATE SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED IN
   TONGUE OF 60F+ SURFACE DEW POINTS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...AS FAR
   NORTH AS LOWER MICHIGAN.  RAPID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WHICH
   HAS OCCURRED PAST HOUR OR SO JUST AHEAD OF FRONT ACROSS THE
   MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE
   TO PROGRESSION OF UPPER FORCING...TOWARD THE SOUTH BEND IND AREA.
    
   
   WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...AND
   A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES...FURTHER EVOLUTION INTO
   SQUALL LINE APPEARS LIKELY NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH PRIMARY SEVERE
   THREAT DAMAGING WINDS IN 40 TO 50 KT MEAN FLOW ENVIRONMENT.
   NARROW LINE OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE
   FORT WAYNE IND... TOLEDO/FINDLAY OH...AND DETROIT MI AREAS BY THE
   21/22Z TIME FRAME.
   
   ..KERR..

Think back a few years.

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11/10/02? I feel like the big hint is that SPC seems to be leaning towards inevitable evolution towards squall line while overlooking the potential ceiling if discrete supercells did develop. But then of course Van Wert happened.

 

Actually the big hint that I was thinking of is that the time was CST, not CDT, indicating it was a late-season event.   :lol:

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Disclosure: I had to black out one sentence that would otherwise be a dead giveaway.

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1049 AM CDT ___ ___ __ ____
   
   VALID __1630Z - __1200Z
   
  
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NC AND SRN VA...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE NC INTO
   THE DELMARVA/CHESAPEAKE...
   
   ...NERN NC ACROSS NC INTO VA...
   SITUATION BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES LATE THIS MORNING
   ACROSS THE AREA.  [omitted]  ...EXTREME SHEAR
   PROFILES ARE IN PLACE WITH 50-60 KT SLY H5 WINDS /40-50 KT AT H85/
   OVERSPREADING ESELY SFC WINDS AND A VERY MOIST WARM SECTOR THIS
   AFTERNOON.  RESULTANT OBSERVED AND FORECAST HODOGRAPHS ARE QUITE
   LARGE AND YIELD SR-HELICITIES IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2.  WATER VAPOR
   IMAGERY INDICATES MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMING MORE NEGATIVELY
   TILTED WITH ENHANCED LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF PRONOUNCED DRY
   INTRUSION MOVING INTO ERN SC/CENTRAL NC/SWRN VA.  THIS AXIS WILL
   CONTINUE SHIFTING ENEWD THROUGH THE PERIOD.  AHEAD OF THIS LINE OF
   ENHANCED ASCENT...CLEARING/THINNING OVERCAST IS SUPPORTING MODEST
   HEATING WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. TEMPERATURES AT 15Z ARE ALREADY
   WELL INTO THE 80S FROM ERN SC INTO CENTRAL/ERN NC AND SRN VA WITH
   FURTHER HEATING/DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
   DAY.  NET RESULT WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SUPERCELLS AND
   SMALL LINEAR STRUCTURES WELL INTO THE EVENING FROM CENTRAL NC/NERN
   SC NORTHEASTWARD.  TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY WHERE
   HEATING WILL BE MAXIMIZED.  THOUGH DESTABILIZATION WILL BE SLOWER TO
   OCCUR AND MORE MARGINAL NWD INTO THE CHESAPEAKE/DELMARVA ...PRESENCE
   OF LOWER TO MID 70F DEW POINTS AND ENHANCED SHEAR SUGGEST A FEW
   SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES MAY SPREAD INTO THIS AREA AS WELL.
   
   
   ...CENTRAL PLAINS...
   STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA WITHIN PLUME OF VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES
   CONTINUES TO SUSTAIN STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ELEVATED ABOVE
   A RELATIVELY CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER...THROUGH THE MID MORNING OVER
   ERN KS.  EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERGO WEAKENING
   INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH CAPPING LIKELY SUPPRESSING DIURNAL 
   STORMS OVER CENTRAL AND WRN KS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER AS LLJ
   INCREASES AFTER DARK...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP INTO FAR ERN KS/WRN MO AFTER 06Z.
   
   ..EVANS/CROSBIE..
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Ummm....guess but 9/17/04? (Evans and Crosbie don't work at SPC anymore and there haven't been a ton of mods in the Carolinas/VA)

 

You're good, my friend.

 

It would help if you knew the omitted sentence was:

REMNANTS OF IVAN WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NEWD INTO
   CENTRAL VA BY TONIGHT. EAST OF CIRCULATION CENTER...
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One more for now...

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER ___
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   345 PM CDT ___ ___ __ ____
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
   
          SOUTHWEST IOWA
          EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
          CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 345 PM UNTIL
   1100 PM CDT.
   
   ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
   
   DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
   THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
   POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
   
   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 65 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND
   SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BROKEN BOW NEBRASKA TO
   35 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF OMAHA NEBRASKA.
   
   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
   PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
   WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
   WARNINGS.
   
   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW ___...WW ___...WW ___...WW
   ___...
   
   DISCUSSION...VERY POTENT SITUATION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS
   OF NEB/IA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS LOW LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN. 
   EXTREME INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE OVER WATCH AREA...AND SHOULD LEAD TO
   EXPLOSIVE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 
   SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL APPEAR LIKELY...WITH THE
   POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES AS WELL.
   
   AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
   SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
   GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550.
   MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26035.
   
   
   ...HART

No more give-aways.

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