Wow Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 I think we can officially call this an event with the forecast rain amounts over much of the SE over the next several days. Let's give all discussion related to this pattern in its own dedicated thread. BTW, the tropical downpours for tonight has begun here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 Wow that map is impressive. Seems like whatever is going to develop rain wise is going to very heavy storms with lots of training. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTwx Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND OBS TRENDS HAVE DONE LITTLE TOALLEVIATE OUR CONCERNS WITH REGARD TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THEPIEDMONT IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIGSOUTHWARD TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD INCREASE THE INFLUX OF ATLANTIC ANDGULF MOISTURE IN RESPONSE TO THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOWANOMALY...WHICH WILL BE UPWARDS OF 5 ST DEV ABOVE NORMAL. FORCINGWILL DEVELOP IN THE FORM OF STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHTENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. EXCELLENT Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE ISALSO SHOWN...WHICH LOOKS STRONG FOR EARLY JULY. THE MODELS ALSO SHOWWHAT IS ESSENTIALLY AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OF MOISTURE SLOWLY MOVINGWEST INTO THE PIEDMONT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD EXCEED 2INCHES IN THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE...WHICH WILL BE GREATER THAN 3 STDEV ABOVE NORMAL. MEANWHILE...PARTS OF THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA ARESTILL RECOVERING FROM SOME HEAVY RAIN THAT HAPPENED FRIDAY NIGHT.WITH THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS IN PARTS OF THE PIEDMONT...THEINGREDIENTS APPEAR TO BE COMING INTO PLACE FOR A SIGNIFICANT HEAVYRAIN THREAT. WITH THAT IN MIND...THINK IT BEST TO ISSUE A FLASHFLOOD WATCH FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY...MAINLY FOR METRO CHARLOTTE AND UP INTO THE NW PIEDMONT. NOT ALLLOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE FLOODING RAIN DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OFTHE PRECIP...BUT THE THREAT IS HIGH ENOUGH THAT PLACES THAT RECEIVEDRECENT RAIN COULD EASILY SEE 1-3 INCHES IN A SHORT PERIOD OFTIME...THAT WOULD BRING A RAPID INCREASE IN STREAM LEVELS. NOTE THATTHE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE WATCH ONLYRUNS THROUGH 6PM MONDAY BECAUSE THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A LULLMONDAY AFTERNOON...SO WE CAN RE-EVALUATE THEN...NOT ONLY FOR THEPIEDMONT...BUT WESTWARD ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND UPSTATE. PRECIPCHANCES WILL RAMP UP TO CATEGORICAL OVER THE PIEDMONT TONIGHT...ANDLIKELY ELSEWHERE...BEFORE TAPERING BACK DOWN. TEMPS WERE KEPT CLOSETO A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 Mooresville ares just S of me is getting poured on again. There's gotta be over 2'' in there over the last hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 Rain has started here know with a storm rolling in from the south. Big huge drops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted June 30, 2013 Author Share Posted June 30, 2013 Mooresville ares just S of me is getting poured on again. There's gotta be over 2'' in there over the last hour. That'd be me, and if I had a functioning rain gauge, I'd figure so. It's been heavily raining with rolling thunder & lightning for the past hour. Looks like this cell might be pushing its way up there soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted June 30, 2013 Author Share Posted June 30, 2013 pool at max capacity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 Well, finally, business is about to pick up here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 That'd be me, and if I had a functioning rain gauge, I'd figure so. It's been heavily raining with rolling thunder & lightning for the past hour. Looks like this cell might be pushing its way up there soon. That pocket of heavy rain has been sitting there for close to 2 hours.it drifts slowly then redevelops,crazy. .86 here so far,radar estimates are 3-4'' there and still pouring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted June 30, 2013 Author Share Posted June 30, 2013 Another round of very hvy rain. Looks like the back end of this will be pushing through within the next hour or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted July 1, 2013 Author Share Posted July 1, 2013 flood warning just issued. it just won't end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 flood warning just issued. it just won't end. Ya what a swath of rain and storms in the middle of the State. It is just moving at a snails pace right know. The thing that I am noticing as well is the moisture feed from both the Gulf and the Atlantic just driving the rain and storms inland. I suspect as the trough starts to retrograde West then we will really get going with large swaths of moisture in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 We are getting in on a small part of the fun so far today in Weaverville. The title of this thread says it all for us though in 2013! With today's rain we are on pace for over 50" (36" normal) this year which is unheard of in the Weaverville area & it's nickname.....dry ridge. I hope the end of the year doesn't give out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 We are getting in on a small part of the fun so far today in Weaverville. The title of this thread says it all for us though in 2013! With today's rain we are on pace for over 50" (36" normal) this year which is unheard of in the Weaverville area & it's nickname.....dry ridge. I hope the end of the year doesn't give out. Don man you said it. Seems like the mountains have been getting hammered this year. Looking at what is coming down the road is kind of scary because the ground is so saturated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 Don man you said it. Seems like the mountains have been getting hammered this year. Looking at what is coming down the road is kind of scary because the ground is so saturated. I can't imagine how much rain you have had this year 85....even AVL has 13"+ more than we have. That being said I guess it's all relative & things are really lush around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 Looks like I was halfway right about round 1 as some parts of the NC mountains and foothills are being nailed tonight. Meanwhile the upstate of SC is mostly dry like I thought it would be. Another round seems to be forming in GA but it is also moving more to the northeast than north so it will miss most of the upstate too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 I can't imagine how much rain you have had this year 85....even AVL has 13"+ more than we have. That being said I guess it's all relative & things are really lush around here. Its been crazy. Been raining in the morning and the evening. Yesterday was the first day it had not rained in a week. Hard to keep the grass mowed and the garden is really suffering because it cannot dry out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 Thought today was going to be dry but a nice storm formed off the NC mountains and has overspread the area! Let the games begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 Flooding at UNC today. https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10152989717460724&set=a.10150331059000724.574476.16081735723&type=1&ref=nf https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10151769024849258&set=a.400547869257.198543.400422309257&type=1&ref=nf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 Ugh looks like I picked a bad week to come down to WNC late this week and thru the upcoming weekend. guess ill be sitting and throwing a few of these back since no need to go up the Black Mtn region. Wont be able to see anything with the rain and fog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 WRAL reporting numerous roads flooded, cars stranded, and people evacuated from flooding near Chapel Hill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 Most rain ever in one day in Chapel Hill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 Lightning and thunder to the east. 0.03 for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 Been raining heavily on and off since 8PM (1030 now) in Fayetteville. We've had rain every day probably for the past week straight...excluding yesterday. at 10" whereas average for June is 5..so twice as much rain as normal. this is not including what's fallen today. and what will fall tomorrow, even though it will be July. Pretty crazy. Haven't even bothered mowing the lawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 still on track.for 100 inches of rain this year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 Had a cell drop a quick half-inch in about 15-20 minutes...and so it begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 still on track.for 100 inches of rain this year! i hear you i'm on track for 140 inches lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 still on track.for 100 inches of rain this year! Right there with ya man. It just will not stop raining. Looks like there are some cells developing to the south that may work in here later on in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 We have gotten a few rain showers tonight and currently getting a decent storm with some lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 rain is really picking up here on the southern escarpment had 2 inches since 11pm and its really puttin it down. nws just put transylvania and henderson county under flood advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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