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Severe Threat June 11-13


Hoosier

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The inter-model agreement on Chicago getting hammered this evening with supercells transitioning to line segments to what appears to be a derecho-type mode is unusually high. Usually at least one of them is out to lunch but not today. If it busts, it will be a group effort, that's for sure.

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 298  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
150 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013  
 
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF  
NORTHEAST IOWA  
NORTHERN ILLINOIS  
EXTREME SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA  
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN  
 
* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 150 PM  
UNTIL 900 PM CDT.  
   
..THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION
 
 
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...  
SEVERAL INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY  
SEVERAL SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE  
SEVERAL VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE  
 
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE  
MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF MASON  
CITY IOWA TO 20 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF ROCKFORD ILLINOIS. FOR A  
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE  
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR  
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH  
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR  
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS  
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.  
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...POTENTIALLY EXPLOSIVE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS  
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS GRADUALLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW  
TRACKS EAST ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE SITUATED FROM NORTHEAST IOWA  
EASTWARD ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER TO LAKE MICHIGAN. A VOLATILE WARM  
AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD FUEL INTENSE THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFTS  
ACROSS THESE AREAS WHERE MID LEVEL FLOW IN EXCESS AROUND 50KT  
SUPPORTS UPDRAFT PERSISTENCE AND ORGANIZATION. A NUMBER OF  
SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED PRIOR TO A CONSOLIDATION OF STORMS INTO A  
LARGE MCS TOWARD EVENING. LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY NEAR THE SURFACE  
LOW AND ALONG THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT SOME TORNADOES WITH ANY  
DISCRETE CELLS. A COUPLE STRONG TORNADOES SEEM POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS  
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE  
HAIL AND LOCALIZED DOWNDRAFT/DAMAGING WIND THREATS.  
 
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL  
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE  
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO  
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28030.  
 
...CARBIN  

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The inter-model agreement on Chicago getting hammered this evening with supercells transitioning to line segments to what appears to be a derecho-type mode is unusually high. Usually at least one of them is out to lunch but not today. If it busts, it will be a group effort, that's for sure.

 

Well right now the boundary in play looks to be sharpening from CCY to DBQ to RFD. Extrapolate that out and it's pretty close to Chicago.

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Don't think I've ever seen any baseball game ever postponed due to expected inclement weather... Very smart idea to do so though on their part, wouldn't want 10000+ people in a stadium with 75+ MPH winds, or tornadoes.

 

It's happened down here at Cardinal games a few times.  Including once a couple weeks ago. 

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Waiting for the watch to be popped here.  Figuring they will go with a strongly worded Tornado Watch. 

 

It is now 85 here, sunny, and dew point is 72  SW Winds at 20.  Definitely starting to feel 'stormy' out there.

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