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June 2013 forecast contest -- temperatures


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To quote Mallow, "okay, you know the drill."

 

We require six temperature anomalies for

 

DCA ___ NYC ___ BOS ______ ORD ___ ATL ___ IAH

 

and the "bragging rights bonus" for June will be valid all summer, predict the highest temperature this summer at any of our six sites (and nowhere else, not IAD, not BWI, not JFK or LGA). If you want to add dates by all means do so.

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Thanks for playing the bonus question ... I worded it a bit awkwardly, was just looking for one high reading but as everyone who played gave all six, let's change it to all six then.

 

My forecasts to give an idea as to what to avoid ...

 

DCA ___ NYC ___ BOS _________ ORD ___ ATL ___ IAH

 

+1.2 ___ +1.1 ___ +1.4 _________ +0.6 ___ +0.3 ___ +1.5

 

104 ____ 101 ___ 98 ____________ 101 ___ 99 ___ 98

 

Summer forecast (not posted in a separate thread this year) fairly ho hum, don't see the extreme heat of 2010-12 developing at least on that scale, not as bad as 2009, fairly close to average in many places. Therefore not worth a thread.

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DCA.......NYC......BOS......ORD......ATL......IAH

0.0     -0.5      -0.3    +0.3    +1.1    +0.5   

 

 

 

DCA.......NYC......BOS......ORD......ATL......IAH

102      97        96       98        101    103

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June Forecast contest ... entries

 

 

FORECASTER ______ DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ___ DC _ NY _ BO _ OR _ AT _ IAH

________________________________________________________________________________________

 

Wx Hype __________  +3.7 __ +3.4 __ +3.2 ____ +1.9 __ +0.8 __ +2.2 ____ 98 ... 97 ... 96 ... 92 ... 95 ... 96

 

Sacrus ____________ +2.2 __ +2.0 __ +1.5 ____ --1.2 __ +0.6 __ --0.9 ____ 102 ... 99 ... 99 ... 99 .. 102 ... 98

 

Inudaw ____________ +2.1__ +2.5 __ +2.2 _____ +1.5 __ --0.9 __--1.2 ____
 

hudsonvalley21 _____ +2.1 __ +1.8 __ +0.2 _____ +0.6 __ +1.7 __ +0.4 ____ 104 .. 101 ... 97 .. 101 .. 100 ... 97

 

bkviking ___________ +1.9 __ +2.3 __ +1.1 _____ --0.2 __ +1.0 __ --0.3 ____ 101 ...98 ...  97 ...  96 ..  100 ...  97         

 

Midlo Snow Maker ___ +1.9 __ +1.7 __ +1.9 _____ +0.5 __ +0.9 __ +1.9 ____ 99 ... 96 ... 96 ... 98 ... 95 ... 103

 

Ellinwood __________ +1.6 __ +1.9 __ +2.0 ______ +0.9 __ +0.5 __ +0.8         

 

Metalicwx366 _______ +1.5 __ +0.5 __  +2.0 _____  --0.5 __ +1.2 __ +3.0 ____103 .. 102 .. 100 ... 99 .. 102 .. 105

 

blazess556 ________ +1.4 __ +1.9 __ +1.5 ______ +0.7 __ +0.6 __ +0.9 ____ 103 ... 99 ... 97 .. 100 .. 101 .. 102

 

Stebo _____________ +1.3 __ +1.7 __  +1.9 _____  +2.1 __  +1.7 __ --0.7 ___ 104 .. 102 ... 98 .. 104 ... 102 .. 106

 

ohleary ____________ +1.2 __ +2.0 __ +2.2 _____ --1.2 __ --0.2 __ +0.4 ___ 100 .. 99 .. 98 . 101 .. 102 .. 102

 

Goobagooba _______ +1.2 __  +2.0 __ +0.5 ______ 0.0 __ +1.2 __ --0.2

 

donsutherland.1 ____ +1.2 __ +1.7 __ +1.8 _____  +0.5 __ +0.5 __ +0.8 ____ 102 ... 98 ... 96 .. 100 .. 100 .. 101

 

Roger Smith _______ +1.2 __ +1.1 __ +1.4 _____ +0.6 __ +0.3 __ +1.5 ____ 104 .. 101 ... 98 ..101 ... 99 ... 98

 

 

Consensus _________ +1.2 __ +1.1 __ +1.3 _____ +0.5 __ +0.6 __ +0.7 ____ 101 .. 98 .. 97 .. 99 .. 100 .. 101

 

 

H2OTown_Wx  (-1%)_ +1.2 __ +0.8 __ +1.4 _____ +2.5 __ +0.3 __  --0.5 ____ 99 ... 98 ... 96 .. 102 .. 101 .. 102

 

wxdude64 _________ +1.2 __ --1.0 __ --0.8 ______ --1.8 __ +2.0 __ +1.1 ___ 102 ... 98 ... 98 ... 99 ... 98 ... 99

  

RodneyS ___________ +1.1 __ +1.1 __ +2.6 _____ --1.8 __ +0.1 __ +1.2 ____ 97 ... 97 ... 97 ... 95 ... 99 .. 100

 

SD ________________ +1.0 __ +1.3 __ +0.7 _____ --0.5 __ +1.5 __ +2.0

 

uncle w ____________ +1.0 __ +0.5 __ +0.7 _____ +0.5 __ --0.3 __ --0.5 ____ 100 ... 98 ... 99 ... 99 ... 98 .. 101 

 

Chicago Storm (-16%) _ +1.0 __ +0.1 __ +0.3 _____ +1.0 __ +0.3 __ +0.3 ____ 100 ... 99 ... 97 ... 97 ... 99 .. 100

 

Chicago Wx _________ +0.8 __ +0.7 __ +0.5 _____ +0.8 __ +1.0 __ +1.0 ____ 97 ... 96 ... 93 ... 94 ... 97 ... 99

 

Mallow _____________ +0.7 __ +1.1 __ +1.8 _____ --0.5 __ +0.4 __ +0.5

 

MN Transplant _______ +0.2 ___ 0.0 __ --0.5 _____ +1.2 __ +1.0 __ +1.0         

 

skierinvermont (-22%) __ 0.0 __ +0.5 __ +1.0 _____ --1.0 ___ 0.0 __ +1.0

 

Normal ______________ 0.0 ___ 0.0 ___ 0.0 ______ 0.0 ___ 0.0 ___ 0.0

 

Isotherm _____________ 0.0 __ --0.5 __  --0.3 _____  +0.3 __  +1.1 __  +0.5  ____ 102 ... 97 ... 96 ... 98 .. 101 .. 103

 

NZucker _____________ 0.0 __ --0.7 __ --1.0 ______ +1.2 __ +1.2 __ +2.0 ____ 101 ... 99 ... 97 ... 98 .. 100 .. 102

 

Tom _______________ --0.1 __ +0.2 __ +0.3 _____ +0.9 __ --0.5 __ --0.4 ____ 101 ... 99 ... 97 ... 102 .. 103 ... 99

 

DerekZ _____________ --0.5 __ --0.5 __ --0.5 _____ +0.1 __ --1.3 __ --1.2 ____ 100 ... 96 ... 97 ... 99 ... 103 ... 102

______________________________________________________________________

 

Consensus for 28 forecasts is average of 14th and 15th ranked. 21/28 entrants gave forecasts of annual maxima at the six stations. The consensus there is the 11th ranked forecast. I will add normal for that category later if I can get the numbers. Anyone who didn't enter that bonus can post their numbers up to the 10th of June. This bonus of course remains open through the rest of 2013 at least to mid-September. We won't have any further "bragging rights bonus" distractions until this one is solved, then we might have one last one concerning first snowfall dates.

 

You can still enter June but as of now the late penalty stands at 44%.

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