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The early speculation on winter 2013-14


weathafella

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Some of those spots seemed to get like a decades worth of average snowfall in that one winter...so regressing to the means might be painful. In terms of averages, that was like a 300" winter in Boston, lol.

 

 

It wasn't that much...more like 3-4 winters worth in the jackpot zones. Probably on par with about 150-160" for Boston. But its hard to put it in terms like that since its not really comparable. It really should be done in terms of sigma values.

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I did some Boston snow research and came up with this...Boston has seen in 122 years,

100"+.......1

90-99.9" ..1

80-89.9" ..5

70-79.9" ..4

60-69.9" 14

50-59.9" 13

40-49.9" 27

30-39.9" 25

20-29.9" 19

10-19.9" 11

T-9.9"......2

52% of the time Boston gets over 40" of snow...65 of 122 years...40-49.9" has the most years......The average snowfall is in the 40's so it fits in good...25 times Boston got 60" or more...20%...Anything over 60" looks like a great winter for Boston...That's coming from a person who lives in a place where 40" is a great winter...

 

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I did some Boston snow research and came up with this...Boston has seen in 122 years,

100"+.......1

90-99.9" ..1

80-89.9" ..5

70-79.9" ..4

60-69.9" 14

50-59.9" 13

40-49.9" 27

30-39.9" 25

20-29.9" 19

10-19.9" 11

T-9.9"......2

52% of the time Boston gets over 40" of snow...65 of 122 years...40-49.9" has the most years......The average snowfall is in the 40's so it fits in good...25 times Boston got 60" or more...20%...Anything over 60" looks like a great winter for Boston...That's coming from a person who lives in a place where 40" is a great winter...

Keep in mind too that Logan waterfront location is not completely representative of just inland areas like Jerry in Brookline.

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Keep in mind too that Logan waterfront location is not completely representative of just inland areas like Jerry in Brookline.

 

Areas like Back Bay over to Jamaica Plain probably average closer to 46-47" per year vs 43-44" out in Boston Harbor where Logan Airport is. The old Chestnut Hill coop used to average in the high 40s when it was still active.

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Well in looking what HM posted, SAM's MQI work and what one of our guys said here, the westerly weakening and changing of the guard did show favorable MJO activity for winter wx here in the east. Of course when the westerly wind shear weakens at 50mb is key. If it waits too long, then it might not be applicable here. We may just be on the cusp by the time we need it.

 

In the mean time I really don't see the harm in the AK vortex at this time. We always see this in some shape or form in the Fall.

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Well in looking what HM posted, SAM's MQI work and what one of our guys said here, the westerly weakening and changing of the guard did show favorable MJO activity for winter wx here in the east. Of course when the westerly wind shear weakens at 50mb is key. If it waits too long, then it might not be applicable here. We may just be on the cusp by the time we need it.

 

In the mean time I really don't see the harm in the AK vortex at this time. We always see this in some shape or form in the Fall.

Thankfully we do not live south of NYC where the correlations with qbo, nino and the Pac are so much greater.

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Well in looking what HM posted, SAM's MQI work and what one of our guys said here, the westerly weakening and changing of the guard did show favorable MJO activity for winter wx here in the east. Of course when the westerly wind shear weakens at 50mb is key. If it waits too long, then it might not be applicable here. We may just be on the cusp by the time we need it.

 

In the mean time I really don't see the harm in the AK vortex at this time. We always see this in some shape or form in the Fall.

 

From a thermal wind argument alone, it's not hard to see why perhaps a weakening +QBO may try to have poleward ridges near the Aleutians or even into AK itself.

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