Significant severe weather threats 4/8-10

[CoastalWx]

The discussion describes the uncertainties and limitations pretty well

 

The second part of their disco relating to the trough and s/w timing are what my concerns were in terms of how intense it will be.

[Ed Lizard]

Maybe verbatim interpretation of the NAM at 84 hours is the dryline is about to light up, but just getting a feeling of a warm sector that underperforms.

 

OT, I think the SREF product with deep layer shear, CAPE and precip would be more useful if it used .05 rather than .01 as a rainfall discriminator.  Even then...

 

Edit To Add: SREFs in Northeastern Oklahoma for tomorrow looks moderately encouraging...

[JoMo]

The 12z GFS moisture return is pretty sketchy. It still wants to put mid-60's dewpoints along the dryline by Monday afternoon. Southerly winds have been pretty strong on the Plains but some of the buoys in the northern and western GOM are still only indicating mid-50's dewpoints.  Some of the areas along the TX coast had DP's in the low 60's early this morning but have already mixed back down to the upper 50's which makes me wonder about quality and depth of the moisture. The GFS also shears the system out pretty quickly. 

[RCNYILWX]

12z GFS solution dujour looks very good w.r.t. shear/lcl/instability for Tuesday in Kansas and Oklahoma, especially eastern KS, but as JoMo mentions above, the system does shear out pretty quickly, which is a concern. On the other hand, the region, namely KS, sits on the nose of a 100+ kt h3 jet by Tues eve that's much less meridional than that of the 12z NAM. Either way, the GFS has definitely taken a step though toward the slower/farther south solution of the ECMWF. Monday looks good in OK and south central KS as well but dewpoints in the mid 60s are likely overdone.

[OUGrad05]

Forgive me for not getting too worked up about this thing yet.  With the system still offshore and the models quite divergent for Monday and Tuesday I'm just not all over this system yet.  I think moisture for Monday is perhaps a bit overdone (though this time of year, who knows).  I also think we've got another 12 hrs at least until the models have an even reasonable grasp on Monday and realistically I think we could be looking at midday tomorrow.  I won't be making any decision regarding whether or not to even consider taking off work until I see the data rolling in tomorrow evening re: Tuesday.  

 

I do not like some of the hodo's Tuesday and it leads me to believe we could see some crapvection go up ahead of a main line.  I think SVR weather is definitely going to happen, but the mode I'm not sold on.  Staying discrete seems like it may be tough with this system and we could just have a squall line move through NE OK late Tuesday evening.  

But again the models don't really have a grasp on this system yet, so it could easily change.  Maybe tomorrow morning I'll be itching to take off work...but this just seems like a mid April tease to an already slow SVR weather year.

[OKpowdah]

9z SREF median sigtor parameter. 

 

[RCNYILWX]

Forgive me for not getting too worked up about this thing yet. With the system still offshore and the models quite divergent for Monday and Tuesday I'm just not all over this system yet. I think moisture for Monday is perhaps a bit overdone (though this time of year, who knows). I also think we've got another 12 hrs at least until the models have an even reasonable grasp on Monday and realistically I think we could be looking at midday tomorrow. I won't be making any decision regarding whether or not to even consider taking off work until I see the data rolling in tomorrow evening re: Tuesday.

I do not like some of the hodo's Tuesday and it leads me to believe we could see some crapvection go up ahead of a main line. I think SVR weather is definitely going to happen, but the mode I'm not sold on. Staying discrete seems like it may be tough with this system and we could just have a squall line move through NE OK late Tuesday evening.

But again the models don't really have a grasp on this system yet, so it could easily change. Maybe tomorrow morning I'll be itching to take off work...but this just seems like a mid April tease to an already slow SVR weather year.

The deep layer shear vector Tues appears to be oriented orthogonally to the dryline, which should be pretty favorable to maintain discrete convection, and also hodographs look good, but otherwise agree about caution until system is fully sampled by the RAOB network.

[OUGrad05]

The deep layer shear vector Tues appears to be oriented orthogonally to the dryline, which should be pretty favorable to maintain discrete convection, and also hodographs look good, but otherwise agree about caution until system is fully sampled by the RAOB network.

I'm not a fan of the mid level kink in the HODO's.  Granted its early but it's pretty consistent across most of OK.

[OKpowdah]

I'm not a fan of the mid level kink in the HODO's.  Granted its early but it's pretty consistent across most of OK.

 

 

Back up your statements with images.

 

In eastern OK, I see a half-circle hodograph that could've been drawn by a 5th grader with a compass

 

 

[Thundersnow12]

12z GFS solution dujour looks very good w.r.t. shear/lcl/instability for Tuesday in Kansas and Oklahoma, especially eastern KS, but as JoMo mentions above, the system does shear out pretty quickly, which is a concern. On the other hand, the region, namely KS, sits on the nose of a 100+ kt h3 jet by Tues eve that's much less meridional than that of the 12z NAM. Either way, the GFS has definitely taken a step though toward the slower/farther south solution of the ECMWF. Monday looks good in OK and south central KS as well but dewpoints in the mid 60s are likely overdone.

 

north central KS near the triple point and along the warm front into southeast NE also caught my eye on that run if that area can destabilize well you have really good low level turning up that way. But with the better forcing, should get at least scattered/discrete developed along the dryline down into north central TX. And further south down near the red river valley might be the better option for something discrete with the more westerly mid level component to the flow and not SSW winds at H5 in KS.

[RCNYILWX]

Back up your statements with images.

 

In eastern OK, I see a half-circle hodograph that could've been drawn by a 5th grader with a compass

 

 

GFS_3_2013040612_F84_35.0000N_95.0000W_HODO.png

To be fair, central OK (I-35 corridor) does exhibit that mid level kink. This sounding is from OKC:

 

But even with the midlevel kink, there's still good lower level turning, which is clear from looking at the Skew-T:

 

 

Central and south-central KS also exhibits that midlevel kink, but not as pronounced as central OK, and then of course as you showed eastern OK has pretty textbook hodos, which is similar the farther east you get in KS.

[OUGrad05]

Back up your statements with images.

In eastern OK, I see a half-circle hodograph that could've been drawn by a 5th grader with a compass

GFS_3_2013040612_F84_35.0000N_95.0000W_HODO.png

 

To be fair, central OK (I-35 corridor) does exhibit that mid level kink. This sounding is from OKC:

But even with the midlevel kink, there's still good lower level turning, which is clear from looking at the Skew-T:

Central and south-central KS also exhibits that midlevel kink, but not as pronounced as central OK, and then of course as you showed eastern OK has pretty textbook hodos, which is similar the farther east you get in KS.

That's pretty much what I was looking at this morning all along the I35 corridor.

 

That sounding looks decidedly better than what I saw this morning...and yeah I agree there's some good turning at the low levels.  We'll see how it pans out...

OKPowdah, not sure why you're getting bent out of shape (no pun intended)? I didn't take screen shots at 6am when I was perusing the data, sorry...if you feel its necessary for some reason I could do it I suppose, but someone has already posted an image of what I'm talking about.

 

[Ed Lizard]

Best I can tell, SigTor doesn't have a rainfall filter like my MUCAPE/Deep Shear SREF product does, and if that product is only moderately optimistic, than no matter how high SiGTor is, one can't be more than moderately optimistic based on SREFs. 

[Ian]

Best I can tell, SigTor doesn't have a rainfall filter like my MUCAPE/Deep Shear SREF product does, and if that product is only moderately optimistic, than no matter how high SiGTor is, one can't be more than moderately optimistic based on SREFs. 

 

GFS slower on Monday lately.. might not get anything to fire in the best ingredients. Seems like it may end up a near or post-dark deal either way. 

[Chicago Storm]

The ECMWF (0z) continues to look much better regarding Tues...Nice soundings still.

[OKpowdah]

That's pretty much what I was looking at this morning all along the I35 corridor.

 

That sounding looks decidedly better than what I saw this morning...and yeah I agree there's some good turning at the low levels.  We'll see how it pans out...

OKPowdah, not sure why you're getting bent out of shape (no pun intended)? I didn't take screen shots at 6am when I was perusing the data, sorry...if you feel its necessary for some reason I could do it I suppose, but someone has already posted an image of what I'm talking about.

 

I like the pun. My bad. I was focusing on the threat further east / southeast, where I see the better chances of anything interesting / discrete. Just trying to have good info provided in this thread.

[OUGrad05]

I like the pun. My bad. I was focusing on the threat further east / southeast, where I see the better chances of anything interesting / discrete. Just trying to have good info provided in this thread.

No problem man

 

I don't do this for a living nor am I formally educated so if at anypoint you want to add to my education please do, I'm always hoping to learn more about svr wx.  Been chasing for a longggg time and reading models etc but could stand to learn a lot.  So if you feel I'm missing the boat, tell me what, what to look for, etc

[RCNYILWX]

north central KS near the triple point and along the warm front into southeast NE also caught my eye on that run if that area can destabilize well you have really good low level turning up that way. But with the better forcing, should get at least scattered/discrete developed along the dryline down into north central TX. And further south down near the red river valley might be the better option for something discrete with the more westerly mid level component to the flow and not SSW winds at H5 in KS.

Excellent analysis on both points, would want to see a solution more like the 12z GFS than the 00z Euro to give n/c KS and s/e NE a better chance to destablize, because the hodos are very impressive there. Looking forward to seeing what the Euro shows with its latest run. 

[JoMo]

From the new Day 2:

 

 

IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE 12Z   NAM/GFS REMAIN A BIT AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE RETURN/60-65 F SURFACE   DEWPOINT DEPICTIONS GIVEN CURRENT OBSERVATIONS IN ACCORDANCE WITH A   RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE/DRYING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. AS   SUCH...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE   RELEGATED TO THE UPPER 50S F TO AROUND 60 F TO THE NORTH OF   WEST-CENTRAL TX.

[patrick7032]

Does anyone know of any past events this one seemed similar to pattern wise? The "closest" I could find is April 23, 2007.

[andyhb]

Does anyone know of any past events this one seemed similar to pattern wise? The "closest" I could find is April 23, 2007.

 

April 12th, 1991 perhaps? At least from an H5 perspective.

 

[patrick7032]

April 12th, 1991 perhaps? At least from an H5 perspective.

 

Thx Andy. Will try finding stuff on that. Had hoped to find post 2000...so I could use the SPC event archive.

[patrick7032]

Nice discussion from Norman.

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATEDNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK301 PM CDT SAT APR 6 2013.DISCUSSION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGHTUESDAY NIGHT REMAINS THE BIGGEST CONCERN.TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THE AIR SHOULD REMAIN TOO CAPPEDFOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY STORM OR TWO NEAR THE RED RIVERTONIGHT. ADDED MENTION FOR 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF STORMS NORTH OFI-40 AND NEAR/EAST OF I-35 SUNDAY MORNING. IF STORMS DEVELOP...HAIL...PERHAPS LARGE HAIL...WOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH DECENTELEVATED INSTABILITY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT LATETONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING NEAR I-44...BUT DID NOT MENTION DUE TOLOW CONFIDENCE.SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOPNEAR A DRYLINE ACROSS WESTERN OR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. LARGEHAIL...PERHAPS VERY LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS...WOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARD. FAIRLY HIGH CLOUD BASES AND LACK OFSIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY LIMIT THE CHANCES FORTORNADOES. ONLY KEPT 20 TO 30 PERCENT AS COVERAGE SHOULD REMAINISOLATED AT BEST WITHOUT A GOOD TRIGGER FOR LIFT AND STRONGCAPPING.MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SIMILAR TO SUNDAY...A FEW SEVERESTORMS WITH MAINLY LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERNOKLAHOMA. SEVERE STORM COVERAGE MAY BE A BIT BETTER DUE TO HIGHERDEWPOINTS WHICH COMBINED WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL SHEAR...MAY ALLOWFOR TORNADOES. HOWEVER...STRONG CAPPING SHOULD KEEP STORMS FROMBEING WIDESPREAD.THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD STAY WEST OFTHE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA.TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS A BETTER SHOT FOR SEVERESTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW. AFEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG A DRYLINE DURING THE AFTERNOON ANDEVENING HOURS WHICH COULD PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES IFTHEY CAN OVERCOME STRONG CAPPING. A LINE OF STORMS WILL LIKELYDEVELOP ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WITHISOLATED SEVERE DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL REPORTS ALONG WITH PERHAPSHEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. THE SLOWER 12Z ECMWF ISPREFERRED...WHICH KEEPS RAIN LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY.

[andyhb]

Tulsa discussion:

 

IT IS INTERESTING THAT SEVERE PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN DROPPING ON
THE DECISION SUPPORT PAGE. I THINK THERE ARE REASONS FOR THIS AS
THE DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR. LOOKS LIKE BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAKE THEIR
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. BECAUSE THE UPPER TROUGH IS COMING
OUT WITH A POSITIVE TILT...WARM SECTOR CAPPING WILL BE
STRONG. IN ADDITION...COLD AIR WILL BE ALLOWED TO SPILL SOUTH DOWN
THE HIGH PLAINS AND THEN EVENTUALLY EAST INTO OUR
AREA...DESTROYING THE ELKART LOW AND LEAVING US WITH A WEAKER
BANANA SHAPED FEATURE. THE LACK OF A WELL DEFINED SURFACE LOW
REDUCES SEVERE AND ESPECIALLY TORNADO CHANCES IN THE WARM
SECTOR...IF YOU CAN GET CELLS TO DEVELOP TO BEGIN WITH. THE FACT
THAT THE ECMWF HAS VERY LITTLE QPF IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND MOST OF THE QPF BEHIND IT IS A CLUE. THIS SETUP IS NOT
LOOKING LIKE A CLASSIC SEVERE SETUP FOR OUR AREA BASED ON THESE
FACTORS. CHANCES FOR RAIN LOOK GOOD HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH EVEN SOME POST FRONTAL PRECIP
CONTINUING IN THE EAST INTO THURSDAY. I HAVE RAISED POPS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

[brettjrob]

In my eyes, the chances for sustained dryline convection Monday afternoon are rapidly declining as more data pours in. In particular, note the strongly-veered H85 flow over the dryline as late as 18z Monday. That typically ensures a cap of steel, especially early in the season with ongoing drought in the SW. Both the NAM and GFS are very similar in their flow fields, but only the NAM is depicting the resulting EML realistically on soundings, in my opinion. Up on the N side of the sfc low in W KS/E CO is more questionable, with some chance remaining of a rogue monster late. As of now, I'd put the odds of a sustained supercell S of US-54 at 25/75.

Although this is a very fluid and low-confidence affair for the 72-hour range, I tend to agree with everything in that TSA AFD regarding Tuesday and the general threat farther east. Pure pattern recognition says the results will be lackluster for the parameters and impressive nature of the trough. But there are always exceptions to conceptual models and patterns, and the ECMWF does its best to suggest this could be one.

[thunderman]

Wind fields are something to admire, but I am starting to really not feel Monday as much.  Maybe an isolated cell or two can get established (where they do, the sky will be the limit with low coverage and wind fields).  That cap is gonna be tough to effectively overcome ... which is a real shame given the potential.

[andyhb]

If the 18z GFS were to verify, there'd certainly be potential for a nocturnal event in the Ozarks (especially AR) on Tuesday night into Wednesday, as instability remains adequate with deeper low level moisture profiles and the LLJ intensifies to around 50 kts. The signatures given by the simulated precip and 700 mb VV's do not immediately scream a linear storm mode either.

 

That said, the Euro and likely the NAM would suggest that most of this threat would wait until Wednesday.

[baroclinic_instability]

In my eyes, the chances for sustained dryline convection Monday afternoon are rapidly declining as more data pours in. In particular, note the strongly-veered H85 flow over the dryline as late as 18z Monday. That typically ensures a cap of steel, especially early in the season with ongoing drought in the SW. Both the NAM and GFS are very similar in their flow fields, but only the NAM is depicting the resulting EML realistically on soundings, in my opinion. Up on the N side of the sfc low in W KS/E CO is more questionable, with some chance remaining of a rogue monster late. As of now, I'd put the odds of a sustained supercell S of US-54 at 25/75.

Although this is a very fluid and low-confidence affair for the 72-hour range, I tend to agree with everything in that TSA AFD regarding Tuesday and the general threat farther east. Pure pattern recognition says the results will be lackluster for the parameters and impressive nature of the trough. But there are always exceptions to conceptual models and patterns, and the ECMWF does its best to suggest this could be one.

As usual your experience is likely going to be more right than wrong with this event. I never thought the setup was particularly amazing to begin with, but it seems to be even less impressive both thermodynamically and synoptically now than it did a few days ago. As others have alluded to earlier, should the northern ejection pan out, which it looks like it will now, most of the pressure falls are going to be oriented along/over the surging cold front with a relatively weakly forced warm sector (even the slower ECMWF has a very unimpressive looking surging cold front on Tue...with most convection forming along that feature). The net result leads to shoddy lapse rates above the EML and weaknesses in the low level wind fields where it counts. Monday looks mildly interesting across portions of KS and possibly N Oklahoma where low level hodographs, even in the absence of strong deep layer shear, will support isolated rotating storms, but dryline activity looks less certain as you alluded to.

[patrick7032]

Interesting discussion from DDC.

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS402 PM CDT SAT APR 6 2013

 

SUNDAY NIGHT:AMSU/SSMI PRODUCTS SHOW THAT THE GULF BASIN IS 70-90 PERCENT OF NORMALFOR PWAT CLIMATOLOGIES. THIS WAS CONFIRMED VIA THE KCRP/KBRO RAOBS THATLOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS CONFIDED MAINLY BELOW 900 HPA. THIS CREATES FORECASTUNCERTAINTY AS MESO AND SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS ARE CURRENTLY OVERDOINGBOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND RELATED CAPE PRODUCTS. AS SUCH, I WAS ALITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE ON PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES THROUGH THELONG TERM PERIOD. ANYWAY, THINK THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR SUNDAYEVENING WILL BE ALONG THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AT THE EDGE OF THE 850 HPATHETA-E AXIS. FARTHER SOUTH, THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE CAPPED DUE THE ADVECTIONOF THE EML. AM A LITTLE DUBIOUS OF FORECAST CAPES AND THINK ACTUAL VALUESWILL BE A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG LOWER DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED BIAS.KINEMATICS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING STORMS WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEARAT 40-45 KT. ANVIL STORM RELATIVE SHEAR IS ON THE WEAKER SIDE, AND MAYCREATE HIGHER BENEFICIAL COMPETITION FOR HAIL EMBRYOS COMPETING DURINGTHE ACCRETION PROCESS. UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWGUSTS TO 60 MPH HAVE BEEN ADDRESSED IN HWO.MONDAY:GROWING UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THE SYNOPTIC WAVE AND THE VARIOUS DIFFERENTSOLUTIONS AS DESCRIBED BY MEDIUM RANGE NWP COMPLICATES THE FORECAST.THE MAIN SYNOPTIC WAVE FROM THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS STILL LOCATED ACROSSTHE GREAT BASIN. 500-250 HPA FLOW INCREASES A BIT COMPARED TO SUNDAYEVENING, ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC FLOW IS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE.AT THE SURFACE, STRENGTHENING LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL LEAD TO THE NORTHWARDPROGRESSION OF A WARM FRONT ACROSS SW KANSAS. CONTINUED EASTWARD ADVECTIONOF THE EML (WITH THE BOTTOM ROUGHLY AT 800 HPA) SPELLS THE CONCERN THATMAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY MAY BE CAPPED FOR SURFACEBASED PARCELS TO REACH THE LFC. AGAIN, THINK THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIESFOR CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES IN ASSOCIATION WITHTHE NOSE OF THE 850 THETA-E AXIS. THERE ALSO COULD BE CONVECTION ACROSSSOUTH CENTRAL/CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG THE DRYLINE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWERDUE TO CAPPING. FORECAST INSTABILITY FROM NAM LOOKS OVERDONE AS DEWPOINTSSHOULD BE IN THE MID 50S DEG F, NOT NEAR 60 DEG F. ALSO, IF THE DRYLINEMIXES EAST, THERE IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR BEHIND THE LINE (BY DEFINITION)AND SOME OF THAT MAY LOWER DEWPOINTS IMMEDIATE ALONG THE DRYLINE WHEREFORECAST CAPES ARE THE HIGHEST. KINEMATICS ARE STILL SUFFICIENT FORROTATING STORMS AND HAIL SIZE MAY BE LARGER (HEN EGG OR LARGER) AS UPPERLEVEL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER WHICH WOULD RESULT INTHE ADVECTION HAIL EMBRYOS DOWNSTREAM AND RESULT IN LOWER BENEFICIALCOMPETITION WITHIN THE UPDRAFT. LASTLY, THERE COULD BE FIRE WEATHERCONCERNS BEHIND THE DRYLINE, BUT WILL DEFER THAT ISSUE TO LATER SHIFTS.TUESDAY AND BEYOND:HAVE GIVEN THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION THE BENEFIT OF THE DOUBT GIVEN THECONTINUED OVERALL POOR PERFORMANCE FROM THE DETERMINISTIC GFS SOLUTIONS.STILL, EVEN DOING THIS, AM STILL UNCERTAIN WITH THE FORECAST AND DIDNOT GET CARRIED AWAY WITH PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES. THE ECMWF SOLUTIONSHOWS A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE SYNOPTIC WAVE AND THUS WE COULD SEESOME CONVECTION EVEN ON TUESDAY IF THIS SOLUTION VERIFIES. THE ECMWFENSEMBLES ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE, SO THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES MAYBETOO HIGH. BEYOND THAT, UL FLOW TURNS NORTHWESTERLY, THE FORECAST WILLBE DRY AS A RESULT AND TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONAL.

[David Reimer]

FWIW the 21Z SREF is more aggressive with development west of Oklahoma City tomorrow evening. Looks like both the 21Z SREF and 0Z NAM are indicating some sort of boundary moving northward through the area early tomorrow evening.