2014 ENSO Mega Thread

[The_Global_Warmer]

I miss having the ENSO guys in one spot.  Tracking, predicting, and talking all things ENSO.

 

With the big time recent warming, it's time we get those guys back in here.

 

 

ENSO 1 and 2 has seen big time surface warming. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[wxmx]

The oceanic KW has done it's dirty work, also there was a weak MJO wave passage....the effects of both should fade fairly soon, and if there's no other westerly push soon, the El Niño chances will continue to go down. Six weeks ago I gave neutral the highest chance with El Niño slightly above La Niña chances. Right now there's little change, I still have Neutral as the favored state, but now the girl and the boy have nearly equal chances in my mind (60% chance for Neutral). Models are still a bit on the neutral-warm side, but the latest CFS is now favoring the cooler state (nearly weak La Niña by the end of the summer).

[icebreaker5221]

The oceanic KW has done it's dirty work, also there was a weak MJO wave passage....the effects of both should fade fairly soon, and if there's no other westerly push soon, the El Niño chances will continue to go down. Six weeks ago I gave neutral the highest chance with El Niño slightly above La Niña chances. Right now there's little change, I still have Neutral as the favored state, but now the girl and the boy have nearly equal chances in my mind (60% chance for Neutral). Models are still a bit on the neutral-warm side, but the latest CFS is now favoring the cooler state (nearly weak La Niña by the end of the summer).

 

 

For sure.  I would also add that, with that warm bubble in the 50-100 m range from 110 to 120 W, we could still see some warmer water making its way to the surface and a temporary uptick in the 3.4 region.  However, to see anything sustained further down the road, we would like to see deeper warm anomalies in the 100-200 m range and further west (although those warm anomalies west of 180 are likely too far west to have any appreciable impact any time soon, and will probably moderate before reaching the surface). 

[The_Global_Warmer]

Could be a flash in the pan.  We will see.

 

[ORH_wxman]

Enso is inherently difficult to predict this far out...but the model guidance is not very bullish on any type of event occurring later this year. Neutral seems to be the favored state. CFS has been trending more Nina recently, but it might be too bullish on that front. The ECMWF and Euro SIPS were trending more toward a weak El Nino as of their March 1st run...the April run isn't out yet. The consensus of the dynamical models seems to be warm-neutral while the consensus of the statistical models is like the CFS showing a weak La Nina.

[The_Global_Warmer]

[Mike.Ventrice]

As others has stated here, a recent downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave has brought warmer waters to the East Pacific, and erased the negative SST anomalies. While some cooling will occur over the next month as an up-welling oceanic Kelvin wave treks along the thermocline to the East and brings some colder sub-surface water to the surface... check out the western part of the basin.. There is still a good deal of anomalous 20deg isotherm depth in the West Pac warm pool and it seems to be intensifying as a result of the increased downwelling due to enhanced trades over the West Pac as the MJO progresses eastward over the Indian Ocean last week. 

 

This indicates to me there is potential for another downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave to bring warm water to the East Pac during June-July, maybe even August.  Not sure if we can achieve an El-Nino by summmer as a result of weak -PDO, but I don't think it's out of the question...

 

[ORH_wxman]

Euro SIPS for this month is a lot more pessimistic now on the formation of a Nino than back in March. Subsurface still has some warmer waters out in the far western regions past the dateline but subsurface cold anomalies are expanding in central regions. Most models are going for a neutral ENSO later this year, but we will probably have a much better idea in another 1-2 months.

 

 

[Mike.Ventrice]

Does anyone notice something weird here? LOL what the heck? Did the Pac ocean just blow up on 4/8?

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

Maybe multiple forces are causing the irratic temperature differences.

[icebreaker5221]

Equatorial Pacific waters are cold right now.  There is a respectable build-up of warm, > 2C anomaly waters below the surface, but it is still almost entirely confined to west of the dateline and quite deep ~150 m.  I wouldn't expect any significant chages, other than perhaps slight moderation of the cold region, any time soon. 

 

[bluewave]

The Euro looks like something close to neutral for the summer.

 

 

 

[wxmx]

The oceanic KW has done it's dirty work, also there was a weak MJO wave passage....the effects of both should fade fairly soon, and if there's no other westerly push soon, the El Niño chances will continue to go down. Six weeks ago I gave neutral the highest chance with El Niño slightly above La Niña chances. Right now there's little change, I still have Neutral as the favored state, but now the girl and the boy have nearly equal chances in my mind (60% chance for Neutral). Models are still a bit on the neutral-warm side, but the latest CFS is now favoring the cooler state (nearly weak La Niña by the end of the summer).

Little change on my thoughts, although I believe ENSO models are a tad warm in their forecasts.

 

Recent cooling has brought a dip in the anomalies for most ENSO regions...down to -0.4 for region 3.4. This cooling trend will stop and revert some as a CCKW reverses the low level winds anomalies, but there's no clear indicator of any strong WWB nor an OKW in the immediate/medium term, and I expect to get back to mostly easterly anomalies past the first week of June.

 

Given the recent cooling trends, plus the higher confidence on a non-Niño event, I have now the probability of an ENSO warm event at 15%, 20% for a La Niña and 65% for neutral conditions.

[nzucker]

We're definitely getting a little closer to a Niña with the cold pool just west of Peru and the warm waters near Australia...very classic look, especially the cooling of the Indian Ocean. How long can it persist?

[ORH_wxman]

We're definitely getting a little closer to a Niña with the cold pool just west of Peru and the warm waters near Australia...very classic look, especially the cooling of the Indian Ocean. How long can it persist?

sst5.20.gif

 

 

I highly doubt it lasts...the subsurface is still quite warm in far western regions and it will only take a brief letdown in the easterlies to warm it back a bit...but as wxmx mentioned, the easterlies look like they are forecasted to return if the LR into June is any indication.

 

I also agree with wxmx that neutral seems to be the best bet right now.

[Quixotic1]

We're definitely getting a little closer to a Niña with the cold pool just west of Peru and the warm waters near Australia...very classic look, especially the cooling of the Indian Ocean. How long can it persist?

sst5.20.gif

Is that a shift in the PDO I see?  This time last year below.  Index is up to -0.16 FWIW.   

 

[Snow_Miser]

Looks like we could be dealing with a Niño soon, as the subsurface warmth continues to expand eastward. The PDO is also positive now as well.

[Snow_Miser]

The latest Euro gets us to borderline weak by later in the fall now roughly +0.3 to +0.5 range.

3464_plumes.gif

It looks like the ENSO state has been running towards the bottom of the forecast envelope so far.

[wxmx]

As I have stated before, I highly doubt we get into a warm ENSO regime this year. Models are trending cooler and very close to straddling the 0C anomaly. As the effects of the last OKW fade away and we get into the suppressed phase of both, the KW and MJO, stronger easterlies are forecasted. Also, the OHC increased with the OKW, but it's now fading as well, although is increasing back west. All in all, neutral conditions should continue in the foreseeable future.

 

 

[GaWx]

Fwiw, the SOI (30 day +7 and 90 day +6) suggests no Nino soon. I'm still thinking neutral/no official weak Nino is most likely in the near future. Official Nino requires 5 trimonths in a row of +0.5 in 3.4. Will be interesting to follow as usual since sometimes there are surprises.
For hurricane season, the +SOI, assuming it continues, suggests a pretty active season in the MDR.

 

 

Edit: Looking back at past Ninos that didn't immediately follow another one, 1968-9 and 1986-7 are two that had rather solid +SOI's in the preceding June (+10, +8.6). Those two were borderline weak/moderate to moderate Ninos. By Aug. neither no longer had solid +SOI's. So, IF 2013-4 were to actually end up as a Nino, I'd have to expect that there'd no longer be a solid +SOI by August.

 I will be following the OHC to see if the sudden warming sustains itself and advances further. If so and if the SOI collapses by August, then I'll start to seriously think Nino for 2013-4.

[ORH_wxman]

As I have stated before, I highly doubt we get into a warm ENSO regime this year. Models are trending cooler and very close to straddling the 0C anomaly. As the effects of the last OKW fade away and we get into the suppressed phase of both, the KW and MJO, stronger easterlies are forecasted. Also, the OHC increased with the OKW, but it's now fading as well, although is increasing back west. All in all, neutral conditions should continue in the foreseeable future.

 

 

CFSnino34Mon.gif

CFS_75S75N_6_5_uwnd850.png

 

 

 

Those are some hostile u anomaly charts at 850 for getting a Nino going. I agree with the neutral theme. I have not been high on Nino for a couple months now. But its still possible if the easterlies aren't as impressive as forecast and the subsurface warmth is allowed to surface far enough east without getting chewed apart. Last year, we actually had much more impressive subsurface warmth and it got hammered quickly...the stuff that surfaced just couldn't ever establish itself.

[griteater]

From Australian Bureau of Meteorology (July 2 update)...

 

"The majority of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indicators have remained neutral since mid-2012. While the surface waters of the eastern Pacific have cooled recently, they are not supported by equally cool waters beneath the surface. Hence climate models suggest a neutral ENSO pattern will persist into the austral spring. However, the development of La Niña in 2013 cannot be totally ruled out yet."

[The_Global_Warmer]

Got a question about how the sub-surface temps effect things.

 

The Subsurface water isn't warmer than the surface.  Unless I am missing something.

 

So assuming this water surfaced how does it cause warming if the Surface is already warmer?  Isn't this just showing the water below the surface is anomalously warm vs what it normally is?

 

Is the surface cooler because of winds but the sun warms it up to a certain point and this would make it easier for it to be warmed?

 

thanks in advance.

 

[phil882]

Got a question about how the sub-surface temps effect things.

 

The Subsurface water isn't warmer than the surface.  Unless I am missing something.

 

So assuming this water surfaced how does it cause warming if the Surface is already warmer?  Isn't this just showing the water below the surface is anomalously warm vs what it normally is?

 

Is the surface cooler because of winds but the sun warms it up to a certain point and this would make it easier for it to be warmed?

 

thanks in advance. 

 

The ocean temperature is normally warmest at the surface.  If you note, temperatures in the East pacific can easily be as warm as the temperatures in the warm pool, but it often is very shallow warm water with a relatively shallow thermocline. The anomaly animation you see is just a reflection of an anomalously deep thermocline that is displaced slightly eastward of its climatological position. This can be the result of oceanic kelvin waves helping to shift warmer water eastward from the warm pool in the West Pacific. This is oftentimes helped along by westerly wind bursts associated with the MJO and atmospheric Kelvin waves.

[mrgolf]

Hello phil882, gotta few questions. Can we have a +PDO without having a formadible elnino, esp during winter....for instance? Also, if we have a +QBO this winter, do we want to see more solar activity, sunspots, etc than normally would? Phil, we had a -qbo last winter, but we really never got that cold until after beg-mid part of feb. Pattern seemed so progressive last winter as well. Lastly, at this same time last yr, the models were honking on a fairly robust elnino, but they dramatically changed as we approached sept-oct timeframe. What im asking is do we need some MAJOR changes to have chance to see a formidable elnino for boreal winter? Thanks kevin

[griteater]

The Subsurface water isn't warmer than the surface.  Unless I am missing something.

 

So assuming this water surfaced how does it cause warming if the Surface is already warmer?  Isn't this just showing the water below the surface is anomalously warm vs what it normally is?

 

 

I think your questions are hitting on a key concept.  Looking at the equatorial Pacific 850mb zonal wind anomalies that wxmx posted, we see that anomalous easterly winds are forecasted to occur at least in the near term in the nino regions.  The colder the subsurface waters, the faster the surface waters would cool in the central & eastern Pacific as upwelling occurs due to the strengthened easterlies.  However, in the current state, the subsurface waters are warmer than normal (though still colder than the surface water as you mentioned)...thus, some cooling is still likely to occur, but just not at the rate that it would occur if the subsurface waters were colder.

 

Here are a couple of good articles on this topic:

http://blog.timesunion.com/weather/el-nino-in-a-cake-pan-basics-of-enso/813/

http://blog.timesunion.com/weather/accelerated-el-nino-westerly-wind-burst-in-a-cake-pan/872/

[griteater]

ENSO MEI July Update...

 

 

"The updated (May-June) MEI has dropped back to -.30, now in its tenth month in a row with ENSO-neutral rankings, at present the 20th lowest out of 64 cases. However, this is now very close to weak La Niña rankings, a significant change compared to the previous nine months. Of the 10 nearest ranked May-June cases since 1950, five remained ENSO-neutral by the end of the calendar year, while the other five ended up in La Niña territory by November-December (and none as El Niño)... 

 

...El Niño came and went last summer, not unlike 1953. We have just witnessed our first ENSO-neutral winter since 2003-04 (2005-06 was an ENSO-neutral winter, but much closer to La Niña, and dipped into La Niña rankings during March-April). Of the six such ENSO-neutral cases before 2012-13 shown here, two ended up as full-blown El Niño events by the end of the second year shown in this graph (1991 and 2002), while three remained more or less ENSO-neutral, and one drifted into weak La Niña territory (1967). However, during boreal spring four of these cases showed at least a brief foray into El Niño conditions, with two of them (1953 and 1981) quickly returning to ENSO-neutral later that year. Given a recent preference for La Niña, I would not be surprised if we see a gradual drift of the MEI into negative territory later this year, while a transition to El Niño appears to be off the table in 2013."

 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/

[mrgolf]

Hello guys! I left a msg for phil882 on yesterday, but anyone can try to take a stab at my questions if they dont mind. It looks like a +QBO for this winter from what ive been hearing. If that comes to fruition, what would we like to see happen for us to still see some cold intrusions in winter? From what i understand, the +QBO decreases the chances of blocking in higher latitudes and the opposite can be said for a -QBO

[Harry]

Hello guys! I left a msg for phil882 on yesterday, but anyone can try to take a stab at my questions if they dont mind. It looks like a +QBO for this winter from what ive been hearing. If that comes to fruition, what would we like to see happen for us to still see some cold intrusions in winter? From what i understand, the +QBO decreases the chances of blocking in higher latitudes and the opposite can be said for a -QBO

 

See 2008-09 ( Mainly Dec and Jan though )   for one way to get the colder stuff during a +QBO..

[mrgolf]

Thanks harry! I cant remember though if the ao/nao were negative then. Pdo is always a factor too. Yep, we got real cold in jan 2009. I do remember that though. 2010-2011 was a +QBO, but the nao/ao were negative, which helped out alot. 2011-12 was a -QBO, but super positive nao/ao.