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March 21-26 winter storm threats: best SE opportunities of season?

GaWx

By GaWx,
in Southeastern States

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

Folks,

 The AO is forecasted by the 0Z 3/18 GEFS to dip to near -5 or lower 3/19-21 with a low ~-5.25 to -5.5 on 3/20! How unprecedented is this? Going back to 1950, when daily AO records start, there has not been a single day near or lower than -5 between 3/11 and 11/16, inclusive! Actually, there have been sub -5 days in March only in 1970 and that was during early March (3/4-10). So, this is quite possibly a one in 60-70 yearish type of -AO for late March!

 

 The 12Z 3/18 and earlier Euro/GFS runs have been showing a 1065 mb sfc high and 568 dm 500 mb hts. centered over the N pole on 3/19!

 

 Considering how anomalous is this AO dip, the major snow forecasted for parts of the SE US during 3/22-26 per the 12Z 3/18 Euro is not far-fetched at all. There have been late March major winter storms for significant portions of the nonmountainous SE on both 3/24/1983 (classic Miller A) and 3/25/1971 (Miller B'ish looking). So, the upcoming late March AO dip is arguably more anomalous than the upcoming late March major winter storm threat(s). Also, there have been 2-3" or higher max. snow amounts showing up for TN/NC within this period going all of the way back to the 0Z Euro and GFS 3/15 runs! That model consistency adds a lot of credibility to the threats.

 

 The 12Z 3/18 Euro has two periods of significant snow for the SE US during 3/22-4 (Fri-Sun) per the clown maps (only 1"+ is shown):

 

1st period (Fri 3/22):

- TN: all but NE 1/4 gets 1-6+. Specifically, Chatt. 3-4, Nash. 3, Mem 2-3, Knox. 1

- far NE MS/far N AL/N GA/NW SC/far SW NC 1-4.

- AL: Hunts. 3

- GA:  Clayton 3-4; Dahlonega 3, Atl/Athens: 3 far N burbs to 2 city to 1 S burbs; Rome 2

- SC: GSP 1-2; Columbia 1

- NC: Ash. 1

 

2nd period (Sun 3/24):

-TN: Nash. 7-8, J. City 4, Knox. <1;

-NC: HKY/Charlotte/Fayett. 6-7, Triad/Triangle: 6, Ash. 5, Wilm. 1-2

-SC: GSP: 4-5, Florence 2-3; Columbia 2

 

 (Fwiw, the 12Z 3/18 CMC also has two storms: 3/22 snow and 3/24-5 snow as well as what may also be IP/ZR in some of the typical CAD areas due to significant wedging.)

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superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
Posted

I'm slowly getting reeled in for this one. I have to give you full credit Larry for being one tenacious dude about this season. I will be hanging on your every word.

 

It's time to go all-in.  Nothing to lose at this point.  30-year anniversary of 3/24/83.  What can go wrong?

 

One thing about the 1983 storm is that it was preceded by a very warm stretch of weather, which will not be the case this time around.  In fact, temperatures look very cool over the coming week (aside from tomorrow) and soil temperatures are already into the 40s for NC (50s and 60s for GA).

 

I think this time of year soil temperatures and the sun angle are very legitimate topics of discussion.  We need consistent moderate/heavy snow, preferably at night.  A 12-hour light snow event during the day isn't going to cut it.

 

By the way, RAH just added rain/snow for Sunday Night/Monday in my point forecast in their latest update.  Color me surprised.  Didn't expect that so early!

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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

Posted
Posted

I've seen it snow and accumulate quickly with temps in the 40s this year. I think snowfall rates trump all other factors. So I agree , light snow won't cut it! I'm a little leery that highs are showing in mid 50s and lows in upper 30s Fri - Sun. Also don't like hearing about 2 systems and people start saying the next looks better, heard that a lot this year

It's time to go all-in. Nothing to lose at this point. 30-year anniversary of 3/24/83. What can go wrong?

One thing about the 1983 storm is that it was preceded by a very warm stretch of weather, which will not be the case this time around. In fact, temperatures look very cool over the coming week (aside from tomorrow) and soil temperatures are already into the 40s for NC (50s and 60s for GA).

I think this time of year soil temperatures and the sun angle are very legitimate topics of discussion. We need consistent moderate/heavy snow, preferably at night. A 12-hour light snow event during the day isn't going to cut it.

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NGaWxNerd

NGaWxNerd

Posted
Posted

It's time to go all-in.  Nothing to lose at this point.  30-year anniversary of 3/24/83.  What can go wrong?

 

One thing about the 1983 storm is that it was preceded by a very warm stretch of weather, which will not be the case this time around.  In fact, temperatures look very cool over the coming week (aside from tomorrow) and soil temperatures are already into the 40s for NC (50s and 60s for GA).

 

I think this time of year soil temperatures and the sun angle are very legitimate topics of discussion.  We need consistent moderate/heavy snow, preferably at night.  A 12-hour light snow event during the day isn't going to cut it.

 

By the way, RAH just added rain/snow for Sunday Night/Monday in my point forecast in their latest update.  Color me surprised.  Didn't expect that so early!

I would take a 12hr daytime snow at this point. I have seen a 30 second flurry and a spit on my truck hood this season, so if something like real snow is cooking in the atmosphere for me I'll be model hugging along with the rest of you. I'm proud to be a snow :weenie: .

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WilkesboroDude

WilkesboroDude

Posted
Posted

Okay enough of the bullocks. 

 

If it were to snow light in the heart of winter during the day it might not cut it for most here. Soils temps are usually way above freezing anyway even in winter. Unless you can show us how much the soil has warmed up the point is moot.

 

No matter what time of the year nighttime will help us in most cases and intensity will help. It is nothing new because it says March. Not sure why we even have to mention that. IMO, sun angle can and will be negated by heavy cloud cover esp. in times of CAD.

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

Okay enough of the bullocks.

If it were to snow light in the heart of winter during the day it might not cut it for most here. Soils temps are usually way above freezing anyway even in winter. Unless you can show us how much the soil has warmed up the point is moot.

No matter what time of the year nighttime will help us in most cases and intensity will help. It is nothing new because it says March. Not sure why we even have to mention that. IMO, sun angle can and will be negated by heavy cloud cover esp. in times of CAD.

Soil temps and sun angle is definitely more of an issue in late March than in January. Rates can offset that, sure.

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dsaur

dsaur

Posted
Posted

Cross Roads knows!!  Now if the Doc and Gfs can catch up to Larry, we'll be excited by Thursday by the maps.  Larry has known about this month for months now by looking at  climate portents and anomalies, and this coming -ao is a pretty good one.

  All I'm saying is it better come down here this time, or me and the Moles are .............

 well, we are going.......... well.....

  I guess, in the event all others get snow and we don't. well, we'll just wait until next year...so there.  Heck of a call for March, Cross Roads!!  Heck of a call.  Well, maybe it wasn't exactly a call...but I'll call it a call :)  T

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POWERSTROKE

POWERSTROKE

Posted
Posted

Okay enough of the bullocks.

If it were to snow light in the heart of winter during the day it might not cut it for most here. Soils temps are usually way above freezing anyway even in winter. Unless you can show us how much the soil has warmed up the point is moot.

No matter what time of the year nighttime will help us in most cases and intensity will help. It is nothing new because it says March. Not sure why we even have to mention that. IMO, sun angle can and will be negated by heavy cloud cover esp. in times of CAD.

Soil temps are upper 40's around here.

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WilkesboroDude

WilkesboroDude

Posted
Posted

For this time of year soil temps looking doable. Keep in mind those of us in NC are forecast to see several frosts/freezes this week. CAD today also helping with it being 34 degrees here. 

 

Red line looking good IMO. South of the blue line can easily work too if it comes down hard enough etc may just have some melting.

 

598984_424732610953072_2092232417_n.jpg

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superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
Posted

It's not for the faint of heart, but if you are a true weenie and live in the western half of NC, then take a look at the 18z DGEX clown maps.  24-30" of snow IMBY ... 2.5-3.0" QPF of all-snow. 15"+ of snow for basically the entire western half of NC.  36-42" near Fancy Gap, VA right near the NC border.  :lol:

 

From past experience, ever major winter storm usually is preceded by some total weenie runs by the DGEX, so I take it as a good sign. ;)

 

And, yes, the DGEX is pretty much useless.

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NGaWxNerd

NGaWxNerd

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Posted

It's not for the faint of heart, but if you are a true weenie and live in the western half of NC, then take a look at the 18z DGEX clown maps.  24-30" of snow IMBY ... 2.5-3.0" QPF of all-snow. 15"+ of snow for basically the entire western half of NC.  36-42" near Fancy Gap, VA right near the NC border.  :lol:

 

From past experience, ever major winter storm usually is preceded by some total weenie runs by the DGEX, so I take it as a good sign. ;)

I just dyed my hair Friday night (my life is THAT exciting) and I don't know if I can afford the gray hair I'm gonna sprout from wishing for one more shot of something. Is there anything on the Dgex for me ?

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superjames1992

superjames1992

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I just dyed my hair Friday night (my life is THAT exciting) and I don't know if I can afford the gray hair I'm gonna sprout from wishing for one more shot of something. Is there anything on the Dgex for me ?

 

This probably belongs in the banter thread as the DGEX is useless, but no.  It also manages to skip TN and is pretty much a bizarre run that has as good of a chance at verifying as it does being 90F on Sunday.

 

etatotsnow192.gif

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Disc

Disc

Posted
Posted

This probably belongs in the banter thread as the DGEX is useless, but no.  It also manages to skip TN and is pretty much a bizarre run that has as good of a chance at verifying as it does being 90F on Sunday.

 

etatotsnow192.gif

If that map actually had any chance of verifying, I might take back about what I said about bringing on spring. That gives me 36-42"  :lol:

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SN_Lover

SN_Lover

Posted
Posted

Surpised to see a thread on this already, but it did storm here earlier tonight. Maybe that is a good sign. But it seems the Euro is the one saying yes this time and the GFS is saying no so fat.

Same here. Never would i imagine talking about snow chances this late in the game. Euro has done pretty good thus far in the season in comparison to the GFS. GFS needs to increase it's resolution. Ill put most of my money on the Euro. :) 

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Bevo

Bevo

Posted
Posted

Same here. Never would i imagine talking about snow chances this late in the game. Euro has done pretty good thus far in the season in comparison to the GFS. GFS needs to increase it's resolution. Ill put most of my money on the Euro. :)

 

I don't want to assume, but I'm assuming anyway that you meant for that to read the other way around.  :whistle:

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MotoWeatherman

MotoWeatherman

Posted
Posted

Folks,

 The AO is forecasted by the 0Z 3/18 GEFS to dip to near -5 or lower 3/19-21 with a low ~-5.25 to -5.5 on 3/20! How unprecedented is this? Going back to 1950, when daily AO records start, there has not been a single day near or lower than -5 between 3/11 and 11/16, inclusive! Actually, there have been sub -5 days in March only in 1970 and that was during early March (3/4-10). So, this is quite possibly a one in 60-70 yearish type of -AO for late March!

 

 The 12Z 3/18 and earlier Euro/GFS runs have been showing a 1065 mb sfc high and 568 dm 500 mb hts. centered over the N pole on 3/19!

 

 Considering how anomalous is this AO dip, the major snow forecasted for parts of the SE US during 3/22-26 per the 12Z 3/18 Euro is not far-fetched at all. There have been late March major winter storms for significant portions of the nonmountainous SE on both 3/24/1983 (classic Miller A) and 3/25/1971 (Miller B'ish looking). So, the upcoming late March AO dip is arguably more anomalous than the upcoming late March major winter storm threat(s). Also, there have been 2-3" or higher max. snow amounts showing up for TN/NC within this period going all of the way back to the 0Z Euro and GFS 3/15 runs! That model consistency adds a lot of credibility to the threats.

 

 The 12Z 3/18 Euro has two periods of significant snow for the SE US during 3/22-4 (Fri-Sun) per the clown maps (only 1"+ is shown):

 

1st period (Fri 3/22):

- TN: all but NE 1/4 gets 1-6+. Specifically, Chatt. 3-4, Nash. 3, Mem 2-3, Knox. 1

- far NE MS/far N AL/N GA/NW SC/far SW NC 1-4.

- AL: Hunts. 3

- GA:  Clayton 3-4; Dahlonega 3, Atl/Athens: 3 far N burbs to 2 city to 1 S burbs; Rome 2

- SC: GSP 1-2; Columbia 1

- NC: Ash. 1

 

2nd period (Sun 3/24):

-TN: Nash. 7-8, J. City 4, Knox. <1;

-NC: HKY/Charlotte/Fayett. 6-7, Triad/Triangle: 6, Ash. 5, Wilm. 1-2

-SC: GSP: 4-5, Florence 2-3; Columbia 2

 

 (Fwiw, the 12Z 3/18 CMC also has two storms: 3/22 snow and 3/24-5 snow as well as what may also be IP/ZR in some of the typical CAD areas due to significant wedging.)

thanks for the Dahlonega IMBY mention Larry.  :)

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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted

I don't want to assume, but I'm assuming anyway that you meant for that to read the other way around.  :whistle:

 

Yes, I thought the Euro has caved a lot to the GFS the past couple of months. But I think the last few runs of the GFS have been all over the place. It does seem when there is a very dynamic system in the long range, the Euro usually has a good handle on it.

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Bevo

Bevo

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Posted

Yes, I thought the Euro has caved a lot to the GFS the past couple of months. But I think the last few runs of the GFS have been all over the place. It does seem when there is a very dynamic system in the long range, the Euro usually has a good handle on it.

 

In a split flow, yes - I would certainly agree with that.

 

And I think it's pretty academic at this point that this was not a great winter of performance for the Euro.  

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