bluewave Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 There were only 7 Marches since 1950 with a 500 meter or higher anomaly around Greenland and parts of Canada to the pole. Current model forecasts indicate that we could see a very strong 500 mb height anomaly in that range coming up in about 5 days or so. I put together a list of Marches since 1950 when blocking reached above those levels and the peak snowfall in NYC around or following the strongest dates. The only year with such a late date was 1980. Most of the time during blocky Marches, anomalies this great happen earlier in the month. 3-10-51........peak NYC snowfall......3-22-51.......1.0" 3-08-58.........3-20-21-58.........11.8" 3-3-62.......3-6-62.......0.2" 3-21-80........T 3-5-81......3-5-81.......8.6" 3-13-05......3-23-05.....1.0" 3-3-06.......3-02-06....1.3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Seems pretty inconclusive wrt snow, let's look at temps. I looked at the prior 5 and following 5 days after each record blocking date: 1951: 1951-03-05 | 51 | 35 1951-03-06 | 53 | 35 1951-03-07 | 57 | 42 1951-03-08 | 52 | 38 1951-03-09 | 41 | 26 1951-03-10 | 40 | 24 1951-03-11 | 47 | 28 1951-03-12 | 55 | 34 1951-03-13 | 41 | 38 1951-03-14 | 47 | 37 1951-03-15 | 42 | 34 1958 1958-03-03 | 45 | 39 1958-03-04 | 44 | 34 1958-03-05 | 46 | 35 1958-03-06 | 47 | 35 1958-03-07 | 48 | 33 1958-03-08 | 41 | 30 1958-03-09 | 41 | 27 1958-03-10 | 51 | 33 1958-03-11 | 57 | 34 1958-03-12 | 44 | 34 1958-03-13 | 46 | 34 1962: 1962-02-26 | 40 | 33 1962-02-27 | 41 | 36 1962-02-28 | 41 | 35 1962-03-01 | 41 | 17 1962-03-02 | 29 | 12 1962-03-03 | 36 | 11 1962-03-04 | 38 | 16 1962-03-05 | 39 | 29 1962-03-06 | 38 | 34 1962-03-07 | 42 | 34 1962-03-08 | 43 | 32 1980 1980-03-16 | 48 | 25 1980-03-17 | 59 | 38 1980-03-18 | 59 | 38 1980-03-19 | 58 | 35 1980-03-20 | 58 | 43 1980-03-21 | 55 | 43 1980-03-22 | 43 | 36 1980-03-23 | 57 | 35 1980-03-24 | 54 | 38 1980-03-25 | 43 | 37 1980-03-26 | 47 | 38 1981 1981-02-28 | 44 | 35 1981-03-01 | 49 | 40 1981-03-02 | 47 | 37 1981-03-03 | 37 | 28 1981-03-04 | 40 | 26 1981-03-05 | 38 | 31 1981-03-06 | 43 | 31 1981-03-07 | 43 | 33 1981-03-08 | 46 | 37 1981-03-09 | 50 | 41 1981-03-10 | 50 | 38 2005 2005-03-08 | 57 | 18 2005-03-09 | 31 | 16 2005-03-10 | 34 | 21 2005-03-11 | 38 | 29 2005-03-12 | 45 | 30 2005-03-13 | 45 | 34 2005-03-14 | 40 | 28 2005-03-15 | 46 | 28 2005-03-16 | 45 | 32 2005-03-17 | 48 | 33 2005-03-18 | 50 | 37 2006 2006-02-26 | 29 | 18 2006-02-27 | 30 | 18 2006-02-28 | 33 | 22 2006-03-01 | 41 | 27 2006-03-02 | 35 | 29 2006-03-03 | 33 | 22 2006-03-04 | 39 | 24 2006-03-05 | 45 | 31 2006-03-06 | 43 | 31 2006-03-07 | 44 | 30 2006-03-08 | 49 | 29 Cold, but not brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 There were only 7 Marches since 1950 with a 500 meter or higher anomaly around Greenland and parts of Canada to the pole. Current model forecasts indicate that we could see a very strong 500 mb height anomaly in that range coming up in about 5 days or so. 00zECMWFENS500mbHeightAnomalyNH120.jpg I put together a list of Marches since 1950 when blocking reached above those levels and the peak snowfall in NYC around or following the strongest dates. The only year with such a late date was 1980. Most of the time during blocky Marches, anomalies this great happen earlier in the month. 3-10-51........peak NYC snowfall......3-22-51.......1.0" 31051.gif 3-08-58.........3-20-21-58.........11.8" 3858.gif 3-3-62.......3-6-62.......0.2" 3362.gif 3-21-80........T 32180.gif 3-5-81......3-5-81.......8.6" 3581.gif 3-13-05......3-23-05.....1.0" 31305.gif 3-3-06.......3-02-06....1.3" 3306.gif March 58 had a 4.7" storm on the 13-14th...1980 had measurable snow in some parts around the city on 3/31-4/1...so far the blocking has kept us from torching...so far the max for the month is 57...2001 was the last time the monthly max was this low... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 15, 2013 Author Share Posted March 15, 2013 March 58 had a 4.7" storm on the 13-14th...1980 had measurable snow in some parts around the city on 3/31-4/1...so far the blocking has kept us from torching...so far the max for the month is 57...2001 was the last time the monthly max was this low... We came really close to another 500 meter anomaly on 3-17-06 and saw some snow early in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 probably a ridiculous question...is there a single site that you use to piece together your analogs, or do you have to use multiple sources? thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 This is impressive for March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 18, 2013 Author Share Posted March 18, 2013 A drop to around -5 or lower on the AO would be entering new territory for what we have seen in late March since 1950. Previous late March lows 2006 3 21 -3.822 2005 3 19 -2.600 2001 3 24 -4.202 1996 3 31 -3.320 1984 3 23 -3.383 1981 3 18 -3.460 1980 3 17 -3.188 1962 3 17 -3.645 1958 3 16 -3.396 1955 3 21 -3.758 1952 3 28 -3.123 1951 3 17 -2.661 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 This block is absolutely nuts, it's near 50F in some parts of Greenland right now: Maniitsoq, Greenland is at 48F right now. http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/WBGMQ.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Holy crap: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 That is crazy. When was the last time the AO was this low? 2011? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Previous late March lows 2006 3 21 -3.822 2005 3 19 -2.600 2001 3 24 -4.202 1996 3 31 -3.320 1984 3 23 -3.383 1981 3 18 -3.460 1980 3 17 -3.188 1962 3 17 -3.645 1958 3 16 -3.396 1955 3 21 -3.758 1952 3 28 -3.123 1951 3 17 -2.661 2001's low wasn't the lowest for the season...it came in February...I think 1970 is the only march with an ao -5.000 and it came early in the month...This year might end up way lower than any of these years listed...to bad we don't have data before 1950...it could lead to a colder than average April...TWT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I'm gonna go catch some rays and warmth up in Greenland, y'all enjoy the snow/cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 half of bluewaves analogs had 90's in May so we might all have a tan by June... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 18, 2013 Author Share Posted March 18, 2013 That is crazy. When was the last time the AO was this low? 2011? These are the dates that we made it to -5 or lower the last couple of years: 2010 12 18 -5.265 2010 2 6 -5.2052010 2 7 -5.005 2010 1 2 -5.3842010 1 3 -5.5332010 1 4 -5.4032010 1 5 -5.1802010 1 6 -5.095 2009 12 20 -5.3412009 12 21 -5.8212009 12 22 -5.5032009 12 23 -5.5772009 12 24 -5.2562009 12 25 -5.052 The strongest 500 mb blocking last winter with a 500 meter anomaly was on the Russian Arctic side. We last saw a 500 meter anomaly on our side to the pole in January 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Boxing Day, 2/4 and 2/10 2010 and 12/20/09 all associated with those values. 20 inches and 2 10 inch storms for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 19, 2013 Author Share Posted March 19, 2013 What a remarkable drop especially for late March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 The pattern of AO drops and rebounds for the first half of winter vs the pattern for the second half is quite interesting. Each additional drop of the AO has been greater than the previous since the middle of February, with the bottom finally falling out in late march. It'll likely close in on 6 in the next day or 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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