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The NAM Promises a March Snowstorm


donsutherland1

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Lately, sometimes cutting it close with model runs, I've done a lot of reading to my one-year-old son. Books include The Very Hungry Caterillar, Goodnight Moon, and The Cat in the Hat. After the great non-storm of March 2013, tonight's reading will be a little different. Tonight's story will feature this most recent "storm."

 

The NAM Promises a March Snowstorm

 

I am the NAM,

Forecasting weather is what I do,

I am not Sam.

 

I am not some sexy European Model,

The ECMWF is that model’s name.

I am not some new and improved Canadian Model,

The GGEM is her name.

 

But I know what the weenies want,

Days and days of snow,

Thicker than any fog,

That any of you know.

 

Heaped by the wind into drifts,

As big as those from a Lake Effect snow belt.

So deep, so large, and so massive,

One would ask, “Will it ever melt?”

 

The weenies would reply in unison.

Their resounding answer: “Of course not!”

It will never completely melt before the next snows fall.

Not even when the summer sun is hot.

 

I am the NAM,

I will give the weenies some winter love.

I will give them snow, snow, and more snow.

With all that snow, they will return my love.

 

Every six hours without fail.

The weenies will ask me what I glean.

Every six hours without fail.

My answer: “More snow than you have ever seen."

 

NAMModel_zps2d58f403.jpg

 

The world is not all good.

There are many skeptics and clowns.

There are some who actually hate the snow.

But don’t you wear any frowns.

 

I know it is now March.

It is true the days are growing longer.

But rain will not be your fate,

Even as spring’s warmth grows stronger.

 

It is also true that it is not as cold now.

The season is late.

I know that the analogs show,

It is not 1888.

 

But the weenies still thirst for snow.

Snow is what they want most of all.

What do the models show?

Ever hungry weenies want to know.

 

Whatever their faith,

Their common prayer is for snow.

The ECMWF is a false idol that should not be worshipped.

Its maps say there won’t be much snow.

 

The weenies will look for a second opinion.

Snow is their wish.

The GFS is not funny.

On that model, any snow is for the fish.

 

The weenies will look for a third opinion.

The ECMWF and GFS only gave them pain.

The GGEM has its own twisted idea.

There will be mostly rain.

 

The weenies’ search for snow will go on.

Finally, they will turn to me.

When they ask me for my forecast,

I will tell them, snow is what you will see.

 

And that is what I showed them on my maps.

I gave them lots of snow, run after run after run.

But when the day of the promised storm had arrived,

Cold raindrops began to fall and the weenies had no fun.

 

Out the windows they looked.

Snow had been their bet.

Yet, everywhere they looked,

The ground was only wet.

 

What a miserable day it was!

Now, they were mad.

Their faith in me was shattered.

With their loss of trust in me, I was sad.

 

This situation could not stand.

On my next run, I would fix things for them.

I would give them a new promise.

Just wait, it will snow again.

 

So when the NAM comes out all snowy in its next run,

What should forecasters do?

With its next forecast of an epic snowfall,

What would you do?

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