Typhoon Tip Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 This event is fascinating, albeit rife with potential to under-perform. We have shadowing in the deep interior, and p-type headaches where it lightens up, ranging to pockets of excessive blue snow totals, ... none of which may be tied directly into the cyclone, but a result of peripheral indirect effect by wave of long fetch conveyor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Harv to lead the 5pm news pretty much verbatim Harv talking bands of moderate to heavy snow on the I95 corridor by 7am. Boston and SW suburbs, Blue Hil, Canton, Sharon, bands of heavy snow towards morning and during the course of tomorrow morning. His exact words. This is why he's the best. 5-9" from Worcester to Tolland to Providence to Taunton, just west of me towards Carver, up through Brockton, Canton, and then NW. Stresses it's very early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Switched it ever so slightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Why bash or praise mets (some who may or may not read this board) over a forecast prior to the event even beginning? Seems like pre-game spiking of the football. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 Switched it ever so slightly. Looks like a reasonable call - You know, I'm watching this rad loop of NWS - this really is no different than Lake Effect appearance on rad, the cellular sounding type, that I witnessed so often growing up in Kalamazoo. We should just call this what it is, an OES event with a little bit of weak mid-level assist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Why bash or praise mets (some who may or may not read this board) over a forecast prior to the event even beginning? Seems like pre-game spiking of the football. Definitely true, we shouldn't post any accumulation maps, or indicate which ones we think are right until after the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Wrong date, sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Definitely true, we shouldn't post any accumulation maps, or indicate which ones we think are right until after the storm. Hes been a tool lately with his never ending love of Mets. Nobody I see is bashing any mets. Tough forecast with huge bust potential. If the Euro is so wrong in Boston it will be an epic fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 FWIIW here is what we came up for ENY and (W)NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 RPM is king of all weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Hes been a tool lately with his never ending love of Mets. Nobody I see is bashing any mets. Tough forecast with huge bust potential. If the Euro is so wrong in Boston it will be an epic fail. Lol Steve....calling folks tools but not seeing any bashing of Boston mets over the past day or two. Sorry if trying to keep some respect around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Hes been a tool lately with his never ending love of Mets. Nobody I see is bashing any mets. Tough forecast with huge bust potential. If the Euro is so wrong in Boston it will be an epic fail. Ginxy, thoughts on up here? Stayed cold IMBY today...high 32.5F...snow off and on, a little addition to the pack. Some great bands earlier in Leominster...the cold is there... I think I am too far NW to cash in.... 4-6" sound reasonable in N ORH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Wrong date, sorry. sref_nc_snowdepth_15Z06MAR2013_rr.png Still 6" at PWM. I toss. I'm expecting a wintry appeal and that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The GFS, along with radar, is scaring me a bit, it refuses to move north at all and seems almost stationary to my south. Was this modeled, or is it reason to be concerned? -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The GFS, along with radar, is scaring me a bit, it refuses to move north at all and seems almost stationary to my south. Was this modeled, or is it reason to be concerned? -skisheep It was modeled very well by the 12z euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 Actually, the radar imagery hints the thing is moving S of due east - haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 It was modeled very well by the 12z euro. yet it still brought .3" here, how does that show up, guessing it moves north later? aside from some sprinkles that couldn't have been more than .02" liquid, where does that come from? -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Ginxy, thoughts on up here? Stayed cold IMBY today...high 32.5F...snow off and on, a little addition to the pack. Some great bands earlier in Leominster...the cold is there... I think I am too far NW to cash in.... 4-6" sound reasonable in N ORH? I have no clue at all, tough to go against the Euro like every Met in the Ne is. Seems everyone is in line with the GFs ignoring any NAM, SREFS,EURO,RGEM, GGEM output, just go with 3-6 like everyone else and be conservative then ramp up tomorrow afternoon and say, its stronger than we thought or say its weaker than we thought, cover all bases like they all do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Hes been a tool lately with his never ending love of Mets. Nobody I see is bashing any mets. Tough forecast with huge bust potential. If the Euro is so wrong in Boston it will be an epic fail. Harv just did more explaining in the 10 minutes he's been on air then everyone else combined in the last 2 days. This is why he's the best and nobody around here denies that. Flat out he said the heaviest snow could fall south of boston right where we all keep talking about and showed a graphic with 9.5". He said what we already know which is it's all about dynamics. He went through every option, every detail, etc. We're spoiled in Boston that's what we got for years. EDIT: I should add his map is exactly what Ryan, Scott, Will, Bob, me, Jerry and a ton of others feel is the boom zone for this storm whether it's 5-9 or much more, that's where it'd happen. Small chance closer to but west of me, small chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 The GFS, along with radar, is scaring me a bit, it refuses to move north at all and seems almost stationary to my south. Was this modeled, or is it reason to be concerned? -skisheep Probably not - it's becoming apparent that "if" there is going to be a showing from this event it wasn't going to be from the storm its self, as it seems to want to pass too far seaward. But there is an indirect anomalous 500mb easterly flow setting up and that is helping to encourage some deep layer instability in a saturated column for areas of SNE. This could result in steadier snow picking up overnight tonight through the afternoon tomorrow ... Other models also argue for this continuing into tomorrow night. But this could all take place while the mechanics associated with the cyclone pass safely seaward, having never passed over the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Harv just did more explaining in the 10 minutes he's been on air then everyone else combined in the last 2 days. This is why he's the best and nobody around here denies that. Flat out he said the heaviest snow could fall south of boston right where we all keep talking about and showed a graphic with 9.5". He said what we already know which is it's all about dynamics. He went through every option, every detail, etc. We're spoiled in Boston that's what we got for years. EDIT: I should add his map is exactly what Ryan, Scott, Will, Bob, me, Jerry and a ton of others feel is the boom zone for this storm whether it's 5-9 or much more, that's where it'd happen. Small chance closer to but west of me, small chance. The best thing about Harvey is he goes into detail even about us in CT, most TV stations are so small they only cover their neck of the woods and little else. That is why i like watching him but can not due to CT TV stations pissing and moaning about Boston stations to the FCC back in the 80s. thank God for NECN, wish they would hire Harvey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Probably not - it's becoming apparent that "if" there is going to be a showing from this event it wasn't going to be from the storm its self, as it seems to want to pass too far seaward. But there is an indirect anomalous 500mb easterly flow setting up and that is helping to encourage some deep layer instability in a saturated column for areas of SNE. This could result in steadier snow picking up overnight tonight through the afternoon tomorrow ... Other models also argue for this continuing into tomorrow night. But this could all take place while the mechanics associated with the cyclone pass safely seaward, having never passed over the area. Email harv find out what his top limit is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The GFS, along with radar, is scaring me a bit, it refuses to move north at all and seems almost stationary to my south. Was this modeled, or is it reason to be concerned? -skisheep SLP moving ESE out into the Atlantic. All models show this. Tonight is fringe city. The better stuff should come tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFRI Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 SREF snowfall graphic printing out a lot of rain as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Why do mets cover every outline and cove of the coast like that dude above? It does not work like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/cmcensemble/12zggemensemblep72072.gif GGEM ensembles look like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/cmcensemble/12zggemensemblep72072.gif GGEM ensembles look like the GFS. That looks a bit heftier than the oper. though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel in VA reported a 100 mph gust!!! Shortly after they closes the 17 mile brudge/tunnel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 GGEM op crushes everyone..Ensembles aren't what you look at this close in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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