earthlight Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The consistency of the NAM and SREF data is creating a significant headache for short term forecasters as we begin to transition towards a period where mesoscale modeling tends to be more accurate. That being said, the ECMWF and GFS both have relative lighter events (despite the ECMWF bringing nearly 6" of snow to the NYC area). It remains to be seen how the storm will behave exactly but some form of significant impact --including snow, wind, rain and potentially coastal flooding -- seems likely in what could be the last "cold" storm of the season heading into March. We'll use this new topic for the 00z model guidance suite tonight and then open up an OBS Thread tomorrow morning. Wish you all luck with whatever you're hoping for from this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 NBC just went with 6-12 around these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Put it this way... 2 days ago we were reaching to get into the 0.25" total QPF range and many gave up all hope, and the divergence now is between 0.75-1.25" or so on most models for most of the area and mostly snow. I would be very happy with 6" to get me to normal on the season. Looking at how complicated the storm/set-up is and all the small things that are creating major sensible differences in models this close will surely create both bad surprises and good surprises from VA to BOS. Should be a very interesting day tomorrow and Thursday seeing how everything plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 NBC just went with 6-12 around these parts. NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Primary looks pretty healthy for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 NYC? yes into enj as well...seems bold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yl715 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Primary looks pretty healthy for now. grearth 2013-03-05 18-29-19-45.png Very important to track how the heights rise in the next 6-12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 earthlight...the rgem being a short range mesoscale model, it seems like a solid compromise between the nam/sref and euro. I would go with a solution like that both because I like the outcome (kidding), but more importantly because it really is a solid middle ground at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Fwiw Lonnie Quinn on Channel in NYC is going with 6-12 inches for the area. Tonight's model runs will be crucial. The fact that the NAM has been consistent for several days now leads me to believe if may be on to something. Good luck everybody... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 yes into enj as well...seems bold doesn't seem so bold to me. Just says they are siding with the NAM camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 NBC just went with 6-12 around these parts. Seriously? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I thought the sub-headline on the thread was classic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 doesn't seem so bold to me. Just says they are siding with the NAM camp. That's what makes it kind of bold and gutsy lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 After a high of 50 down to 39 in colts neck. I love playing this game 12 to 18 hrs out. Would love to get a cloud deck around sunrise and top out in the upper 30s , so I don't have to cascade off a cliff tomorrow pm to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 NBC just went with 6-12 around these parts. You sure about that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 You sure about that? ScreenHunter_16 Mar. 05 18.53.png Im thinking i got the wrong channel. CBS is where Lonnie is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 You sure about that? ScreenHunter_16 Mar. 05 18.53.png Lol, so much for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Lol, so much for that. LOL I dont watch tv. It was relayed to me. Someone else posted above they saw it too though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Im thinking i got the wrong channel. CBS is where Lonnie is. Ah, ok. Gutsy by them then especially since they have usually been most reliant on the NWS. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Im thinking i got the wrong channel. CBS is where Lonnie is. I saw that posted about four hours ago, it's possible they have issued a revised map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 this should be in the other thread,but just to clear it up since you guys are talking about it in here Lonnie Quinn's forecast "When all is said and done, New York City can expect about 3-6 inches of snow, while areas west, including parts of Westchester and Rockland counties, could see 6-12 inches of accumulation" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 since you just said that.. bet lonnie quin got the most hits on google for those few seconds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Fwiw Lonnie Quinn on Channel in NYC is going with 6-12 inches for the area. Tonight's model runs will be crucial. The fact that the NAM has been consistent for several days now leads me to believe if may be on to something. Good luck everybody... I saw that posted about four hours ago, it's possible they have issued a revised map. See above more recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 this should be in the other thread,but just to clear it up since you guys are talking about it in here Lonnie Quinn's forecast "When all is said and done, New York City can expect about 3-6 inches of snow, while areas west, including parts of Westchester and Rockland counties, could see 6-12 inches of accumulation" Fair enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingwill42 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 More Importantly what did Lee Golberg say on CH7 ? He is and their Forecast is EASILY the best on the local Channels IMO. I missed all the news as I just got home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 More Importantly what did Lee Golberg say on CH7 ? He is and their Forecast is EASILY the best on the local Channels IMO. I missed all the news as I just got home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 More Importantly what did Lee Golberg say on CH7 ? He is and their Forecast is EASILY the best on the local Channels IMO. I missed all the news as I just got home. 4-6 and 2-4 east end of LI with chance of more picture was posted.. and TWC was 5-8 NE NJ/ NYC and 8-12 uhh about into Morris county and NW NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingwill42 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Snowfall Forecast.jpg Thanks.. Well at least Im in his 4-6 Locally more strip. not a bad starting point as of now with models still all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Wow, very bearish by all of them for NYC. Even the 18z GFS shows more for NYC than each of those maps. Can't say I'm surprised though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Wow, very bearish by all of them for NYC. Even the 18z GFS shows more for NYC than each of those maps. Can't say I'm surprised though. If Upton doesn't put out Winter Storm Warnings, the networks won't deviate from Upton much even with any reliance NBC may have with the Weather Channel and ABC has with Accuweather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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