allgame830 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 thru 54 hours looks to approaching 1.25" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 What would be the reason why the runs yesterday showed heavy bands rotating and dropping in from the NE to SW....and lingering with mod-heavy snow for much longer, while today and the general trend has been to make the storm shorter duration. (Yes, we still show precip over us but it is too light to accumulate especially with temps rising after the brunt of the storm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 This run is arguably better for many involved as it is colder and eliminates some concern for BL issues. We all knew 2.0+ qpf was insane. Almost all of it (3/4 at least) falls overnight with good BL this is a solid hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Hr 48 - 850`s still east, much better than the 6z 54 hr crazy torch look . NAM picks up on NORLUN buts east over the ocean , SLP down to 996 at 48 hr vs the 1004 at 54 hr on the 6z looks like its a stall there , see in future frames if it hangs out .. HR 54 precip is light enough that 850`s come WEST , STRECTH from CNJ thru SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 DE gets absolutely crushed at HR 33 on the 4KM NAM I doubt that's all snow down there. Mets down there are calling for a good bit of rain in the DelMarVa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Dude we get over 1" QPF on this run. What are you complaining about? 850s and 2m temps ticked east, which is most important for you. I'm paying more attention to where the NAM seems to be placing the heaviest output, not how much. I'm concerned about a Euro-like outcome with the QPF where there is the min in between the two max areas, but a colder look overall is definitely good. We'll just have to see how it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 High res NAM simulated radars are still very impressive. We want that mega band to stay far enough to the south because there is going to be an area of subsidence to the north of it. You can see that seeting up over far south Jersey by hour 36. At hour 39 we're still getting crushed. The precip shield extends almost all the way to Pittsburgh, PA. The high res is painting an area of precip in excess of 5" from Central DE to Cape May, NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 thru 54 hours looks to approaching 1.25" so u take that down to .75 (due to historical wetness of Nam) and take out another .10 to mxing and you can say Nam says 3-6 for CPK which I think is fair ++ since 36 hours ago we would have been lucky to get 3 mm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm sure some insane people here are going to complain about not seeing 2" qpf amounts, but 6-10" of heavy wet snow with gusty winds has just as much, if not more, impact as a 1 foot powdery snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I doubt that's all snow down there. Mets down there are calling for a good bit of rain in the DelMarVa. High res indiciates in excess of 5" there with a spot in excess of 8" and still raining at hr 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Hr 48 - 850`s still east, much better than the 6z 54 hr crazy torch look . NAM picks up on NORLUN buts east over the ocean , SLP down to 996 at 48 hr vs the 1004 at 54 hr on the 6z looks like its a stall there , see in future frames if it hangs out .. HR 54 precip is light enough that 850`s come WEST , STRECTH from CNJ thru SNE The norlun aspect of this doesn't begin until about hrs 66-78 so you're off on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Hr 48 - 850`s still east, much better than the 6z 54 hr crazy torch look . NAM picks up on NORLUN buts east over the ocean , SLP down to 996 at 48 hr vs the 1004 at 54 hr on the 6z looks like its a stall there , see in future frames if it hangs out .. HR 54 precip is light enough that 850`s come WEST , STRECTH from CNJ thru SNE its not the light precip doing this, but the dynamics disappearing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I wonder if the Norlun signal will show, the euro showed it and its been mentioned yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 its not the light precip doing this, but the dynamics disappearing We are lucky to have them in the first place with an ULL that is closing off way before it gets here. But yes, the dynamics are dead at that point and everything cuts off from the cold air source. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 We are lucky to have them in the first place with an ULL that is closing off way before it gets here. But yes, the dynamics are dead at that point and everything cuts off from the cold air source. Thank goodness for the northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Hr 45 very heavy banding over all of Central NJ and Long Island. Hour 48 all of NJ outside of Cape May getting blasted as this begins to move out. 24 hour + event. The bottom line is, this is a huge hit for 90% of us. I would be worried about BL issues still if I lived out towards Central Long Island. The precip extends far enough north and west that everyone in this sub-forum would get hit hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 All in all, about 1" qpf for much of NYC/NJ area. I would think that'd equate to at least 4-5" snow ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 its not the light precip doing this, but the dynamics disappearing LOL , yes dude , its the same thing my man . As the dynamics get shifted east the precip lightens as the best lifting is gone - the the precip lightens and the 850`s warm ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The norlun aspect of this doesn't begin until about hrs 66-78 so you're off on that one. yeh see the inversion at 66 - I saw the east , west orientation at 48 , so thought that was it too early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 yeh see the inversion at 66 - I saw the east , west orientation at 48 , so thought that was it too early Yup. In the end it ends up too far north actually but these are fine details that we need to iron out as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Annoying clouds and drizzle could linger long after the main storm is over as the storm slowly drifts to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I would think we might get a WWA by later today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I would think we might get a WWA by later today Going by nam should be WSW!! Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I doubt that's all snow down there. Mets down there are calling for a good bit of rain in the DelMarVa. Down there it's dependent on elevation I hear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Guys in SNE gona have BL issues under those 2 inches - Looks like an Est wind for a time and there 850`s are troched from hr 54 onward . Looks a little like feb 2009 slightly colder aloft to there south ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'll tell you what, if you were to take the NAM verbatim it's a warning criteria for everyone. Outside maybe Orange County and Suffolk County. It's very close for Nassau and the city but some really intense banding swings through right before things shut off. Someone could easily pick up 2-4" of snow an hour in some of those spots. It's also a long duration event with much of it falling overnight. Someone up near West Milford could see in excess of 18". It's too bad that the deepest this ever gets is about 996. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 9z SREF mean plume snowfall shows 10.8" at KLGATaking away the highest outlier (24.74" lol) and the lowest outlier (1.26") still yields an impressive mean of 9.9"http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20130305&RT=09&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=LGA&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=4&mLAT=37.77478874678&mLON=-96.042896875&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 9z SREF mean plume snowfall shows 10.8" at KLGA Taking away the highest outlier (24.74" lol) and the lowest outlier (1.26") still yields an impressive mean of 9.9" http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20130305&RT=09&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=LGA&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=4&mLAT=37.77478874678&mLON=-96.042896875&mTYP=roadmap Not so far off from the nam actually. I'd feel safe forecasting 3-6 for western Suffolk west with a max of 4-8/6-10 in the nearby nj ny ct burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4US_12z/snow60.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 Probability of 4" is now over 75% for most of the NYC Metro on the 09z SREF http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREFPROBNE_9z/f12s51.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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