earthlight Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 New SREF data in about 15 minutes, should be very interesting to see if the NCEP data continues to hold much farther north. My bet would be that we will begin to see some convergence towards a solution somewhere between the 12z GFS OP and Euro OP. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 15z SREFs are north and west...wetter than 09z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 sref's are more amped...if only slightly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 Looks like roughly 1.25" to NYC...1.75"+ for parts of Central NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Looks like the SREF's held serve. 1.00"+ area wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 you guys have a map? wondering if NW Jersey still looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 you guys have a map? wondering if NW Jersey still looks good add ABE to that...many thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 you guys have a map? wondering if NW Jersey still looks good 0.75" south and east of Sussex county in NW NJ. 0.50-0.75" north and west of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Long Island and central/south jersey are very questionable with precip type but the maps that I have suck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Looks like roughly 1.25" to NYC...1.75"+ for parts of Central NJ Based on that expect a beefed up NAM QPF wise in one of the next few suites Theres always one 2 days out ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Looks like roughly 1.25" to NYC...1.75"+ for parts of Central NJ That's more bullish than the GEFS for parts of the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Looks like rain to snow based off the SREF for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 SREF precip type maps show basically all snow north of I-80 and west of the city with the city and points just south still mostly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 SREF precip type maps show basically all snow north of I-80 and west of the city with the city and points just south still mostly snow. Good sign. I'm thinking the GFS overwarmed things based on the cooler Nam/EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Based on that expect a beefed up NAM QPF wise in one of the next few suites Theres always one 2 days out ... The NAM is actually one of the drier models. The GGEM, GFS, SREF and JMA all agree on 0.75-1.00"+ area wide. The JMA has a massive blizzard and is an outlier. The Euro is the driest and the NAM is somewhat of a comprimise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 SREF precip type maps show basically all snow north of I-80 and west of the city with the city and points just south still mostly snow. How about for Stamford, CT? (KBDR and KHPN) Guessing we are all snow or close, but want to make sure. Do you have a link to the maps? thanks! -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Put it this way, at hour 60, everyone is snow except Cape Cod. This includes all of southern NJ. By hour 75 TTN north is still all snow and south is rain. The rain snow line then continues to come slightly north but by this point precip is over anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Euro snowmap has 3-6 inches for NYC and more northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The SREF's stall out the low south of the benchmark just like the GFS did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Put it this way, at hour 60, everyone is snow except Cape Cod. This includes all of southern NJ. By hour 75 TTN north is still all snow and south is rain. The rain snow line then continues to come slightly north but by this point precip is over anyway. Thanks, better than I was expecting! -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Euro snowmap has 3-6 inches for NYC and more northward. nice! How much north and east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 .PAIR OF DISTURBANCES INITIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SWRN U.S... ...EVENTUAL MERGER AND AMPLIFICATION OVER THE MIDWEST LEADING TO S SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW MOVING FROM THE LOWER OHIO/UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY...TO POSSIBLY OFF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST ON THURSDAY... PREFERENCES: A MULTI BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF/12Z GFS/CANADIAN AND UKMET WILL ARRIVE AT AN AVERAGED SOLUTION...EVEN FOR THURSDAY WHEN THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY CONFIDENCE: CONFIDENCE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE NOW AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE...CONFIDENCE FOR THURSDAY IS NO HIGHER THAN AVERAGE WITH THE 12Z OPERATIONAL RUNS...THE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM HAVE DIMINISHED ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEMATIC DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/NAM CAMP AND THE ECMWF/UKMET CAMP STILL EXIST BUT ARE MUCH SMALLER. ON TUESDAY...THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EVEN THOUGH THE 12Z UKMET/CANADIAN KEEP HEAVIEST SNOW ACROSS THE MIDWEST ABOUT 75 MILES FARTHER SOUTH THAN CONSENSUS. BY 18Z ON WEDNESDAY...THERE IS ONLY 50 MILES SEPARATING THE 12Z SOLUTIONS FOR SURFACE LOW POSITION JUST EAST OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA FROM ALL THE 12Z RUNS. THOSE DIFFERENCES YESTERDAY WERE UP TO 200 MILES. WHILE A CONSENSUS HAS EMERGED FOR THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF THE CYCLONE ALONG THE VIRGINIA COAST ON WEDNESDAY...THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THE SYSTEM HEADS OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY. THERE IS A TREND FOR THE CYCLONE TO MOVE ON A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION THAN YESTERDAY...SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE COASTLINE FROM NEW JERSEY INTO NEW ENGLAND WILL MORE LIKELY THAN NOT TO SEE SOME SNOW...BUT THE QUESTION REMAINS AS TO WHETHER IT WILL BE SIGNIFICANT OR NOT. THE 12Z RUNS HINT AT A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS WITH NO MODEL RUN HAVING NO PRECIPITATION AND THE 12Z GFS/GEFS HAVING VERY HIGH AMOUNTS IN EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH A GAMUT OF SOLUTIONS IN BETWEEN. THE 12Z NAM HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS AND REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE 09Z SREFMEAN...BRINGING HEAVY SNOW TO VIRGINIA/MARYLAND/WASHINGTON D.C PRIMARILY ON WEDNESDAY WITH A SHARP NORTHERN EDGE TO THE PRECIP OVER SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...BUT THEN SHIFTING THE STORM OFFSHORE ON A MORE NORTHERLY TRAJECTORY BRINGING SNOW FROM NEW JERSEY TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT PRECIPITATION DOES NOT EXTEND FAR INLAND. THE 12Z GFS IS VERY CONSISTENT WITH RECENT RUNS ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY TO EAST COAST BUT HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND FARTHER NORTH ONCE THE STORM IS OVER THE ATLANTIC RESULTING IN THE MOST ROBUST SOLUTION FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW FROM NEW JERSEY TO ESPECIALLY EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE 12Z GFS IS VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE 12Z GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE 12Z ECMWF...THE GFS NOW IS A RELATIVE OUTLIER WITH HEAVIER SNOW OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...MOST OTHER MODELS HAVE CONSIDERABLY LESS. THE 12Z UKMET IS NOW THE SECOND RUN TO CONTINUE BRINGING THE SYSTEM FARTHER NORTH THAN IT DID 24 HOURS AGO. IT DOES HOWEVER...KEEP HEAVIER SNOWFALL OVER THE MIDWEST SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS ON TUESDAY BUT ON WEDNESDAY BRINGS HEAVIEST SNOWFALL TO CENTRAL VIRGINIA SOUTH OF DC WITH A SHARP NORTHERN EDGE ACROSS SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA. ON THURSDAY...THE UKMET DOES BRING SNOWFALL FROM EASTERN NEW JERSEY TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...MORE SIMILAR TO THE 12Z NAM THAN THE GFS BUT BRINGS HEAVY AMOUNTS TO SE NEW ENGLAND. THE 12Z CANADIAN LOOKS LIKE A COMBINATION OF MODELS IN THAT IT IS INITIALLY LIKE THE UKMET...IT KEEPS HEAVIER SNOW SOUTH OF CHICAGO ON WEDNESDAY. LATER... THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS FOUND BETWEEN WASHINGTON DC AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH LESS OF A SHARP NORTHERN EDGE THAN THE UKMET/NAM. IT HAS A DIFFERENT FORECAST FROM THE REST FOR THURSDAY IN THAT SIGNIFICANT SNOW FALLS UP THE ENTIRE COASTLINE FROM NEW JERSEY TO MASSACHUSETTS. THEREFORE...MORE OF A CONSENSUS IS EMERGING ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD SEEMING TO BE ANYWHERE FROM NEAR WASHINGTON DC TO RICHMOND...WITH THE UPPER LOW CROSSING NEAR THE VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER AND THE SURFACE LOW SEPARATED BY ABOUT 50 MILES OFF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA. THESE ARE NOT TREMENDOUS DIFFERENCES BUT STILL COULD IMPACT WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW ULTIMATELY OCCURS. LAST NIGHT...THE 00Z UKMET TRENDED NORTH FROM EARLIER RUNS AND APPEARED TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE 00Z ECMWF...WHEREAS EARLIER IT WAS MORE OF A SOUTHERN OUTLIER. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAVE INDICATED A TENDENCY FOR THE UPPER LOW TO BE SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH AND FASTER AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE EAST COAST. THE LAST 3 RUNS OF THE GFS THROUGH 12Z HAVE ALSO BEEN VERY STABLE...WITH THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF ALSO CONTINUING BUT SHRINKING ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW FAR NORTH AND INLAND THE SNOW GETS FROM PHILADELPHIA NORTHWARD TO NYC AND NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW...MOST MODELS NOW HAVE SOME PRECIPITATION REACHING THESE AREAS WHICH IS CERTAINLY A TREND...EXCEPT THAT THE 12Z GFS/GEFS BEING THE OUTLIERS ON THE HIGH END...BUT AT DAY 3...UNCERTAINTY IS UNDERSTANDABLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 nice! How much north and east? Same towards SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 nice! How much north and east? Looks like 3-6 inches for all of CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Euro snowmap has 3-6 inches for NYC and more northward. What about western Long Island? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Thanks, better than I was expecting! -skisheep The SREF mean is a big hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 What about western Long Island? 3-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The NAM is actually one of the drier models. The GGEM, GFS, SREF and JMA all agree on 0.75-1.00"+ area wide. The JMA has a massive blizzard and is an outlier. The Euro is the driest and the NAM is somewhat of a comprimise. the JMA has temp issues for the Jersey Shore and LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Looks like 3-6 inches for all of CT. Nice, solid advisory event to freshen the ground and whiten everything up, and I don't think it's done coming north -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 the JMA has temp issues for the Jersey Shore and LI Yeah but not for places north and west of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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