free_man Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Hopefully some effects for SNE, and a major winter storm for many folks to our south. Discuss here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The countdown to NCEP guidance caving begins...will it be 12z? It looks like the Euro/GGEM/Ukie are all in pretty close agreement...some minor differences aside...the SREF/GFS are in the other camp. NAM I won't even discuss yet as it is likely to show a whiff and a full blown blizzard at some point in the next few runs, though its 06z solution was kind of in the middle of the two camps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The countdown to NCEP guidance caving begins...will it be 12z? It looks like the Euro/GGEM/Ukie are all in pretty close agreement...some minor differences aside...the SREF/GFS are in the other camp. NAM I won't even discuss yet as it is likely to show a whiff and a full blown blizzard at some point in the next few runs, though its 06z solution was kind of in the middle of the two camps. At least we all are on the same page with the NCEP products being "out to lunch" for the most part with this one. Funny, we all hope they are correct though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It boggles my mind the ensembles have a virtual bliz 72 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 GFS is probably getting over phase happy with the NE energy. All models actually have it, but GFS just take it to an extreme and nearly threatens the BM with the track. NAM doesn't look terrible. Its actually pretty close to the EC ensemble solution Will, yeah I'd agree. My only point on the op Euro is that it's as predictably underamped as the GFS is overamped but the majority tends to view overamping as a bigger crime vs being too suppressed. To me long as the tendencies are known one can adjust which I think is what NCEP has wisely done to this point in going 2/3 Euro, 1/3 GFS. I think these two Euro maps are only 1 run apart. The heavier precip and the low came a lot further north. Still nowhere near the GFS but the sensible impacts on the SE coast are significantly different. A tick of the op towards the Ens and it's even moreso. I view the breaking down of ridging over New England as the largest and most debatable (unlikely) aspect of the GFS. That said one thing should be mentioned which is the RGEM moving pretty dramatically towards the idea of a m/l feature spinning through New England. You can see the changes in the RGEM in just 6 hours below. I don't follow the off hour CMC guidance very closely but it's an interesting change and a total break towards the GFS idea of separating the two as they try to exit our region. It's also faster with the main feature coming through the TN valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It boggles my mind the ensembles have a virtual bliz 72 hours out. toggling the Euro 850 winds it came North 100 plus miles from 12Z. this certainly is an interesting storm to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I'm with Rollo on this one, either way is there a meteorological reason the GFS can't be right besides is the gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I am not sure which scenario Kevin is looking forward to more, the Gfs being wrong and going on a 24hr gfs bash~a~thon or it being right and getting a snowstorm but having to put the gfs bashing on the back burner for yet another year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 SREFS are wet FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I'm with Rollo on this one, either way is there a meteorological reason the GFS can't be right besides is the gfs? Well, quite a few here have spelled out exactly why we think the GFS is incorrect. I'm not bashing it, just not taking it's solution serious in this scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 SREFS are wet FWIWThey shifted decently south from 3z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 So say the euro caves to the gfs hypothetically... Would be awful entertaining seeing the tv people scramble explaining, "oh by the way there's a paste blizzard rolling in tomorrow!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 srefs shifted se, but still clobber eastern mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 They shifted decently south from 3z. In your hood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 In your hoodStill a SE shift for you. The intervals are just smaller up here so it shows up more.Edit. I guess technically no change for you, but most of the GOM coastlne was less. Probably still some amped up ARW members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 toggling the Euro 850 winds it came North 100 plus miles from 12Z. this certainly is an interesting storm to track. The RGEM made a significant departure towards reduced heights on the 6z run. If it went beyond 48 hours I suspect it would have been much farther north than the earlier runs. NavGEM edged a little north too, not much but enough to clip NYC or close to it. I'm with Rollo on this one, either way is there a meteorological reason the GFS can't be right besides is the gfs? I think the entire winter the GFS has overdone every system that was progged as a fringe job by the others. But the Euro has been predictable the other way. Figuring out where the middle ground will be is the difficult part. The GFS has done a good job at sniffing out the northward potential but is always overdone. Maybe this is the time that it isn't, but a forecaster would be nuts to believe that until it's supported by something else. We have always heard the Ensembles being NW of the OP Euro at this range as a red flag for later N movement. If we took 2/3 Euro and 1/3 GFS ensembles it's a good hit. If we took 2/3 euro and 1/3 OP models it's a decent hit. NCEP elected for the latter, and as a result has a decent amount of QPF into New England. It won't work that way though, one camp is about to cave towards compromise, I think the euro ENS are a good place to start for now. The discussion I have about the GFS being right is mainly academic over whether or not it should get more credit than it does for sniffing out systems but being predictably overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Will, yeah I'd agree. My only point on the op Euro is that it's as predictably underamped as the GFS is overamped but the majority tends to view overamping as a bigger crime vs being too suppressed. To me long as the tendencies are known one can adjust which I think is what NCEP has wisely done to this point in going 2/3 Euro, 1/3 GFS. . Over-amping is worse because of the potential impacts to a large population that solution has in this case. Out to sea is out to sea regardless of whether its too suppressed or not. The impact is generally the same for most in terms of sensible weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Big eastern hit on the srefs but without the euro.....not bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The euro op has had plenty of overamped d3-5 runs this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 well I guess todays 12Z runs will clarify everything, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I am not sure which scenario Kevin is looking forward to more, the Gfs being wrong and going on a 24hr gfs bash~a~thon or it being right and getting a snowstorm but having to put the gfs bashing on the back burner for yet another year? I so want it to be right. More than anything. We all do. But there's realism and fantasy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The euro op has had plenty of overamped d3-5 runs this winter. Yea, the EURO is prone to some crazy-uncle esc, overamped solutions... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 12z NAM worlds different over our region with the midlevel features early on. No idea where that leads us just interesting. (vs 0z) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 This whole thing just makes me feel uneasy. If the GFS caves substantially...that's a big disappointment in the model when every ensemble has a sig hit 72 hrs out. 3 days is not an eternity. I expect the euro to come north a bit anyways. I would welcome a 50/50 split for sure and say I was wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 This whole thing just makes me feel uneasy. If the GFS caves substantially...that's a big disappointment in the model when every ensemble has a sig hit 72 hrs out. 3 days is not an eternity. I expect the euro to come north a bit anyways. I would welcome a 50/50 split for sure and say I was wrong. If the GFS caves substantially to the euro that would be a horrible fail for a D3 solution. The gfs even figured sandy out by 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 12z NAM worlds different over our region with the midlevel features early on. No idea where that leads us just interesting.I think every run has been drastically different over the Midwest. At one point the NAM pounded Flint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I remember Wills day long rant when one little SW cost us a megastorm in 2010, maybe one little SW will save us this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I think every run has been drastically different over the Midwest. At one point the NAM pounded Flint. 1953 redux on the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 If the GFS caves substantially to the euro that would be a horrible fail for a D3 solution. The gfs even figured sandy out by 72 hours. I'm trying to be careful not to be too confident either because this science is humbling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I'm trying to be careful not to be too confident either because this science is humbling. Last night at 11 I talked about the gfs, laughed, said it was awful compared to the euro and moved on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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