stormtracker Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Spare us all the superstitious bull. It's time to spin off a thread for the storm. Go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 my beautiful map of the 12z euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 you're the only one without a losing record with storm threads this year. Bring this mofo home and lets close the door on the dreadful dreadful run of bad luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 my beautiful map of the 12z euro Untitled-7.jpg You have mad skills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Ludwig van will bring us some good luck...I can feel it!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 reminder to keep banter in the banter thread.. we're on the cusp of storm mode probably so let's get some practice http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39538-rockin-march/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 my beautiful map of the 12z euro Untitled-7.jpg What is that, a ball of yarn that got destroyed by your cat? Edit: but seriously, how was that derived? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I wish I didn't have a real life (relatively speaking!) and could spend a few days at Skyline Drive....which would turn into a week+ I'm sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 you're the only one without a losing record with storm threads this year. Bring this mofo home and lets close the door on the dreadful dreadful run of bad luck Excuse me? No good sir, I'm 2-1. I started both the Christmas Eve and Chill storm in one thread. That's two wins. I also shot myself in the head on the one that looked best for my area about a month ago. You probably should root against this one. Your storm has been the best of the winter. We're with you Randy. Let's do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Wunder snow maps has placed a wall just west of the dc metro area. Snow hits the wall but doesn't advance to DC. Is that because the surface temps are warm and it won't show any cooling with the precipitation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Wunder snow maps has placed a wall just west of the dc metro area. Snow hits the wall but doesn't advance to DC. Is that because the surface temps are warm and it won't show any cooling with the precipitation? I have no idea how good those maps are, never seen them...but offhand I'd have to say the BL temps must be the reason. Surely cannot be QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 How long after the op do the euro ens come out. Curious about them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Wunder snow maps has placed a wall just west of the dc metro area. Snow hits the wall but doesn't advance to DC. Is that because the surface temps are warm and it won't show any cooling with the precipitation? yes, most likely. the sfc is not that cold on the euro. it's going to come down to rates outside elevation. tho snow makes it east just doesn't accum well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 So the phase idea on this storm has pretty much been ditched, and we're looking at a bowling ball to pass by far enough north with enough intensification to pull in cold air. Is that more favorable than what a phase would give us? Just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 yes, most likely. the sfc is not that cold on the euro. it's going to come down to rates outside elevation. Doesn't the Euro tend to run warm at the surface and then trend cooler as we get closer? Or is that just in damming situations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 So the phase idea on this storm has pretty much been ditched, and we're looking at a bowling ball to pass by far enough north with enough intensification to pull in cold air. Is that more favorable than what a phase would give us? Just curious. I don't think so, but that may be just me. It is what it is, so we will hope for the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Looks like we have a good ne wind on the GFS. Euro winds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Doesn't the Euro tend to run warm at the surface and then trend cooler as we get closer? Or is that just in damming situations? I think it has in the past, yes. At least around here though the heaviest doesn't come till during the day and the air mass isn't super cold on any model. Think in elevation W/SW the story is probably getting clearer but DC area still kinda tricky. I'm more concerned about temps than precip at this pt tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Not only is it hard enough to figure out where the QPF is, but you have to narrow it further and figure out where the best banding will be because that will be vital to dynamic cooling. Still so much time left to narrow those details down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 So the phase idea on this storm has pretty much been ditched, and we're looking at a bowling ball to pass by far enough north with enough intensification to pull in cold air. Is that more favorable than what a phase would give us? Just curious. That far S, no. Some degree of northern stream phasing is desirable to advect sufficient arctic/polar air into the cold conveyor belt. Bowling ball lows are a bit trickier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I don't think so, but that may be just me. It is what it is, so we will hope for the best. Oh I know...I was just not sure whether one scenario was "better" than the other in terms of getting enough cold near the surface and accumulating snow with marginal temps (bowling ball vs. phase). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I think it has in the past, yes. At least around here though the heaviest doesn't come till during the day and the air mass isn't super cold on any model. Think in elevation W/SW the story is probably getting clearer but DC area still kinda tricky. I'm more concerned about temps than precip at this pt tho. For good reason, that last sentence gives me confidence. I think if we get the precip rolling during the night, temps might be less of an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 That far S, no. Some degree of northern stream phasing is desirable to advect sufficient arctic/polar air into the cold conveyor belt. Bowling ball lows are a bit trickier. Makes sense, thanks for the brief comment on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Okay guys, I already made my trip to NE during their blizzard I may travel to see this one. However my threshold for chasing is 18"....Where do I go? Higher elevations towards VA/WVA border? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 yes, most likely. the sfc is not that cold on the euro. it's going to come down to rates outside elevation. tho snow makes it east just doesn't accum well. With 850's gtg throughout on all models so far, dry air in place at onset, and precip starting at night... I suppose it's safe to shave a couple degrees off the model surface temps and not be called a deluded weenie. At least not for that reason alone.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Thanks! I have no idea how good those maps are, never seen them...but offhand I'd have to say the BL temps must be the reason. Surely cannot be QPF. yes, most likely. the sfc is not that cold on the euro. it's going to come down to rates outside elevation. tho snow makes it east just doesn't accum well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 For good reason, that last sentence gives me confidence. I think if we get the precip rolling during the night, temps might be less of an issue. Yeah, perhaps, tho moreso for you than me. The Mar sun is powerful even with clouds and precip. I wouldn't sit around worrying about it but def want to see it trend a bit colder. In your neck I'd probably be feeling fairly good.. if things hold thru tomorrow or so much better. Around here we may need banding and temps at least in the mid-30s (with +SN) probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Okay guys, I already made my trip to NE during their blizzard I may travel to see this one. However my threshold for chasing is 18"....Where do I go? Higher elevations towards VA/WVA border? I'd have to think that's where you'd need to be for the best chance. (Edit: somewhere on Skyline Drive?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Okay guys, I already made my trip to NE during their blizzard I may travel to see this one. However my threshold for chasing is 18"....Where do I go? Higher elevations towards VA/WVA border? Shenandoah valley area looks great at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Okay guys, I already made my trip to NE during their blizzard I may travel to see this one. However my threshold for chasing is 18"....Where do I go? Higher elevations towards VA/WVA border? Way too early to tell yet...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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