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March 4-6 Winter Storm


snowlover2

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0z GFS and Euro(going by Wundermap snow loop) both appear to generally agree on where the snowfall is. Not sure of amounts on the Euro since i don't have access to that but i have the 0z GFS snowfall below. 0z GGEM did move south some but is still the most north of the 3. Could be the last shot at a decent snow.

post-4544-0-95516400-1362125982_thumb.gi

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0z EURO is actually a brush job for Toronto, which is a significant jump north from its previous runs. If we could lose that lobe of energy rotating around the Atlantic gyre around D4, this would have a better chance at getting further north still. As it stands right now though, 0z EURO has probably maxed out the potential latitude gain with this one.

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Too amped and too far north ALL winter beyond 72 hours.

 

played right in to its fantasy land bias last storm to score the coupe here. should probably retire it.  Man that last storm kicked my arse and it came right on the heels of another long tracker before it.   This is the first time since tuesday night that I've really cared to look at what models  are showing down the road.  I like something john dee's map if I was to make a first call.. Looks like GFS is bouncing n/s... NAM is north along with the POS GEM..  Euro I have no clue, but by reading the afd from mke it sounds like its bouncing around also.   John dee's map look like a fine starting point.

 

MIDSNOW.GIF

 

 

5-10.GIF

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0z GFS and Euro(going by Wundermap snow loop) both appear to generally agree on where the snowfall is. Not sure of amounts on the Euro since i don't have access to that but i have the 0z GFS snowfall below. 0z GGEM did move south some but is still the most north of the 3. Could be the last shot at a decent snow.

 

for Ohio, the 12z ggem is about as best as you could ask for regarding this type of set up. Threading the needle with a primary to WV that transfers. Any stronger and warm air would be an issue, any weaker and precip amounts would suck. UK is an OTS slider that bombs for the fish.

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At this point I'm not really sure why I'm comparing these two but you can see why the NAM is further north as it builds the ridge over the western Great Lakes. While the GFS shows very little ridging and allows the system to dive SE across IA and IL and as a result the GFS has more noticeable baroclinic zone across the Midwest.

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2vnsahe.gif

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0zGFS is stupid. Much like any GFS run, it overwhelms everything with a overblown northern stream. This is either a phase or nothing.

Wouldn't be so sure. The trend this winter seems to focus on the northern stream as we get closer and closer to an event. Think of how many times we've been burned this winter because a partial phase trended more northern stream dominated.

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