WinterWxLuvr Posted March 12, 2013 Author Share Posted March 12, 2013 You might want to know what he's wearing first.. Leather? Rubber? That Darth Vader mask? As long as he doesn't break out a light saber. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 In response to Bob, we may be hitting the refresh button and the models may look promising. But we know, after this year, the odds are not in our favor. But I admire the spirit certainly. Not giving up, but also being circumspect, to put it mildly, is a healthy attitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Everybody feels a little hope when they play megamillions. Does that help? Not at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 In response to Bob, we may be hitting the refresh button and the models may look promising. But we know, after this year, the odds are not in our favor. But I admire the spirit certainly. Not giving up, but also being circumspect, to put it mildly, is a healthy attitude. That's precisely why it's interesting. Big nasty block and unusually cold air at a time when you need perfection to pull it off. My expectations are right. I know it could easily be fools gold. On the flip side, if it does work out this time it becomes folklore. Something to talk about decades from now. Quite appealing even if unlikely. If I had to put a number on it, imo dc stands a 20% chance at breaking the streak at a very unusual time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 That's precisely why it's interesting. Big nasty block and unusually cold air at a time when you need perfection to pull it off. My expectations are right. I know it could easily be fools gold. On the flip side, if it does work out this time it becomes folklore. Something to talk about decades from now. Quite appealing even if unlikely. If I had to put a number on it, imo dc stands a 20% chance at breaking the streak at a very unusual time. I think if we pulled anything off, it would go down as a fantastic story. You can't help but root for that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 That's precisely why it's interesting. Big nasty block and unusually cold air at a time when you need perfection to pull it off. My expectations are right. I know it could easily be fools gold. On the flip side, if it does work out this time it becomes folklore. Something to talk about decades from now. Quite appealing even if unlikely. If I had to put a number on it, imo dc stands a 20% chance at breaking the streak at a very unusual time. I don't know about DCA but your hood I totally agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Bob is going for WOTY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Sometimes it's argued "it's gotta be 20-25 degrees below average to snow this time of year." Not at night though. Last time we tried but just no cold air. Nearly 14 days later and that's few degrees milder but the high looks much better ths time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Ghost town here after the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Ghost town here after the Euro That's every forum right now. Kinda sucks when you want to talk weather but nobody's around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Cold and not snowy in mid-March = weather hell. This entire December through March regime has been an abomination for BWI/DCA. It just has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 0z Euro and 6z GFS both have a little overrunning storm Sunday night/Monday morning. Temps look borderline (of course), but probably supportive of snow for DC and points north. Big storm is a huge cutter on both. Looks pretty darn cold after the cutter on both models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 In fact, if tracking way cooler than normal highs with no snow were a desired thing in mid to late March, this board would be in storm mode right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Ok Bob and winterwxlvr, we may have to abandon the big storm play and hitch our wagon to overrunning. In March. During daylight. Lets reassess after 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Ok Bob and winterwxlvr, we may have to abandon the big storm play and hitch our wagon to overrunning. In March. During daylight. Lets reassess after 12z runs. Suggested reading for you 3: Delusional Disorder TreatmentPsychotherapy is usually the most effective help in person suffering from delusional disorder. The overriding important factor in this therapy is the quality of the patient/therapist relationship. Trust is a key issue, as is unconditional support. If the client believes that the therapist really does think he or she is "crazy," the therapy can terminate abruptly. Early in the therapy, it is vital not to directly challenge the delusion system or beliefs and instead to concentrate on realistic and concrete problems and goals within the person's life. http://psychcentral.com/disorders/sx11t.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 12, 2013 Author Share Posted March 12, 2013 Ok Bob and winterwxlvr, we may have to abandon the big storm play and hitch our wagon to overrunning. In March. During daylight. Lets reassess after 12z runs. How a storm ends up cutting here is curious to me. We are still a ways out on this, maybe we don't end up with what's being modeled right now. At least a couple of gfs members still show something other than a cutter, even if they aren't big storms. The Euro sure has been king of the big modeled snow storm this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Ok Bob and winterwxlvr, we may have to abandon the big storm play and hitch our wagon to overrunning. In March. During daylight. Lets reassess after 12z runs. The good news is the euro drops .4-.5 over dca and iad. The bad news is that even 850's aren't below freezing. It's a shame that the couple of waves pre-big cutter can't amplify and go all 50-50 on us. They just slide out to sea keeping the flow to flat for the bigger storm. There's just nothing in the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Ok Bob and winterwxlvr, we may have to abandon the big storm play and hitch our wagon to overrunning. In March. During daylight. Lets reassess after 12z runs. The good news is the euro drops .4-.5 over dca and iad. The bad news is that even 850's aren't below freezing. It's a shame that the couple of waves pre-big cutter can't amplify and go all 50-50 on us. They just slide out to sea keeping the flow to flat for the bigger storm. There's just nothing in the way. Don't you bail on us now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 The good news is the euro drops .4-.5 over dca and iad. The bad news is that even 850's aren't below freezing. It's a shame that the couple of waves pre-big cutter can't amplify and go all 50-50 on us. They just slide out to sea keeping the flow to flat for the bigger storm. There's just nothing in the way. Weenie traitor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Don't you bail on us now lol- just doing my daily hit and runs. Over running could work. Better if it was dark of course. The problem with the cutter is there is just nothing to force it south enough. Flow in from the pac isn't good. No big western ridge. The waves in front don't re-inforce the closed ull. Still time though of course but h5 is getting better resolved at this point. Looks awful chilly down the line. I have a feeling we'll keep getting sucked in until April. At least the hunt isn't over for the year. We just haven't bagged any dinner yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 The inherent problem with the bigger storm is it's source. It's another ns system getting it's act together in the middle of the country. That has problems in the middle of january. We were relying on the uber block just bullying it underneath us. That's a tall task even though we had some good looks at it the last couple. With the ebb and flow of the west coast ridge you would figure *eventually* somthing slips underneath and across the gulf coast. I'm more than a little surprised it hasn't happened in the last month. It's probably saving up for mid april. Remember Nov? A couple miller A's? Those were the last ones of any consequence. I remember "atmospheric memory" talk back in Nov. lol. I think we can put that to bed for good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 How a storm ends up cutting here is curious to me. We are still a ways out on this, maybe we don't end up with what's being modeled right now. At least a couple of gfs members still show something other than a cutter, even if they aren't big storms. The Euro sure has been king of the big modeled snow storm this year. Not sure the cutter solution is correct. But we have seen these modeled blocking patterns end up being garbage at verification Last time we had a block there was zero cold air anywhere close. If the blocking is west-based and real, hard to see the storm cutting. But we all know its not a (meteorological) impossibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 12Z will save us, weenies unite. Can we start extrapolating the NAM yet?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 0z Euro and 6z GFS both have a little overrunning storm Sunday night/Monday morning. Temps look borderline (of course), but probably supportive of snow for DC and points north. Big storm is a huge cutter on both. Looks pretty darn cold after the cutter on both models. Thank God for that. Whatever would we do without late-March cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 This storm will probably evolve into a mega miller B that will destroy Boston and put them over 100". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Some FB weenies are talking superstorm. I'm inclined to believe them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Some FB weenies are talking superstorm. I'm inclined to believe them. If it's on facebook, it's pretty much a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Thank God for that. Whatever would we do without late-March cold? Maybe April and May will actually feel like April and May with budding trees and blooming flowers. The last few years by May, my grass was already starting to brown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Maybe April and May will actually feel like April and May with budding trees and blooming flowers. The last few years by May, my grass was already starting to brown. I'm at 1.27" of rain on the day, and combined with the melt of the wet snow last week, the lower part of my yard now has almost 3" of standing water in it. I am more concerned at this point that my trees and flowers might drown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Thank God for that. Whatever would we do without late-March cold? Whew! The wet warm and dry cold streak has been maintained. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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