Ian Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 but yeah there's a cutter there to the west.. i havent looked at anything really recently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Gfs wins again You really need help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 wow the overrunning event is very cold. Temps at below 32. If we can get that block to the west.......for the main event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 988 over the eastern lakes. there goes most of my new 8-12" b Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 it seems like we have had blocking most of the year but its never really helped us. Blocking doesn't do us much good unless it is in the right places. There has been high latitude blocking, but usually in the wrong locations to be of any use to us. We have finally gotten blocking in the right places in March, and we did finally get a storm, but unfortunately it was March and not January. I know things did not come together perfect, but if it was January that would have been a 8-12" snowstorm for DC, and we would be looking at the potential for more in a different light also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 wow the overrunning event is very cold. Temps at below 32. If we can get that block to the west.......for the main event looks nice but it's over like 30 hours. not sure i can believe in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 looks nice but it's over like 30 hours. not sure i can believe in that. #faithintheflakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 looks nice but it's over like 30 hours. not sure i can believe in that. we do well with overrunning...except we havent had an overunning event in like 12 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 11, 2013 Author Share Posted March 11, 2013 Preliminary first revision of my preliminary first wag has now seen snow amounts drop from the 0-36 range to 0-12 (per Ian). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 12z euro is just a different simulation...it may be different again at 0z, and so on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 wait for the ensembles, at this range op runs are going to bounce around a lot. GEFS mean indicates there have to be a few members pretty far south at 180 hours because the h85 0 line is south of DC. THis is in way way out there fiction land still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 we do well with overrunning...except we havent had an overunning event in like 12 years Think we prob still need rates during the day at least even if it is cold. But it's something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Think we prob still need rates during the day at least even if it is cold. But it's something Cwg ain't touching this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Think we prob still need rates during the day at least even if it is cold. But it's something At least it's not some quick hitting noon-6 deal. I just was to break the 2" streak and not do the walk of shame going into next year. I mean seriously. We are absolutley dining at the 24hr all you can eat WTF buffet. People in MS and AL are laughing at us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 euro looks loaded at 240.. the end of the month hecs is going to be epic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 I'll probably wait until April to start the 13/14 winter disco thread so this thread is the only appropriate one for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Think we prob still need rates during the day at least even if it is cold. But it's something If it's gonna be cold... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 So, now the first event looks better and the second event looks like crap. We are losing our edge here folks. Normally with 2 events on tap, we find a way for both events to get screwed up. Lets's buckle down now. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 What are the sfc temps for the overrunning thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 What are the sfc temps for the overrunning thing? iad SUN 18Z 17-MAR 1.3 -3.1 1024 74 100 0.14 558 539 MON 00Z 18-MAR -1.1 -1.6 1025 88 91 0.19 559 539 MON 06Z 18-MAR -1.2 -2.0 1027 88 100 0.17 561 540 MON 12Z 18-MAR -1.1 -3.0 1027 93 99 0.14 563 541 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 euro looks loaded at 240.. the end of the month hecs is going to be epic Sacrifice the March 19-20 event for the historic March 23-25 event. I see where you are going with this. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 dc streakbreaker SUN 18Z 17-MAR 0.6 -3.0 1024 69 100 0.14 558 539 MON 00Z 18-MAR -0.6 -1.5 1025 81 91 0.15 560 540 MON 06Z 18-MAR -0.6 -1.8 1027 86 100 0.13 561 540 MON 12Z 18-MAR -0.3 -2.6 1027 91 98 0.12 563 541 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 What are the sfc temps for the overrunning thing? below freezing 95 (with some buffer to SE) and NW at night.. low/mid-30s or so during the day except for below freezing west of like the blue ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 sorry mitch SUN 18Z 17-MAR 0.7 -3.8 1024 54 93 0.07 MON 00Z 18-MAR 0.3 -2.3 1025 71 71 0.07 MON 06Z 18-MAR 0.4 -1.9 1027 77 91 0.05 MON 12Z 18-MAR 0.7 -2.9 1028 78 98 0.06 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 dc streakbreaker SUN 18Z 17-MAR 0.6 -3.0 1024 69 100 0.14 558 539 MON 00Z 18-MAR -0.6 -1.5 1025 81 91 0.15 560 540 MON 06Z 18-MAR -0.6 -1.8 1027 86 100 0.13 561 540 MON 12Z 18-MAR -0.3 -2.6 1027 91 98 0.12 563 541 those are some crap rates for 6 hour periods but the stuff at night could stick to the grass etc at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 So, now the first event looks better and the second event looks like crap. We are losing our edge here folks. Normally with 2 events on tap, we find a way for both events to get screwed up. Lets's buckle down now. MDstorm Okay, let's talk amounts. I'm saying 50-60 inches, a conservative estimate, with more north and west of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 those are some crap rates for 6 hour periods but the stuff at night could stick to the grass etc at least. yea, they are some crap rates for sure. Worst of all it will likely be rain. Those temps are highly suspect at this point. But you never know. overunning is weird. Usually comes through in blobs of heavier/lighter. Maybe we get a big ole blob that drops .4 in 3 hours, break the streak, call it a season and move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 iad SUN 18Z 17-MAR 1.3 -3.1 1024 74 100 0.14 558 539 MON 00Z 18-MAR -1.1 -1.6 1025 88 91 0.19 559 539 MON 06Z 18-MAR -1.2 -2.0 1027 88 100 0.17 561 540 MON 12Z 18-MAR -1.1 -3.0 1027 93 99 0.14 563 541 With those rates, not a single flake is sticking during daylight hours, even with -1.1 temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 With those rates, not a single flake is sticking during daylight hours, even with -1.1 temps. 0z to 12z is 8pm-8am. We're gonna get buried Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 euro looks loaded at 240.. the end of the month hecs is going to be epic Ridiculous 1055 high coming down with strong gulf low developing lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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