Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Wouldn't history dictate a more ne movement at some point? No, not really. The talk of 09-10 is flawed. It's not an apples to apples. 09-10 was phased with a dominant stj. SW's approached much differently. It's really a bad comparison imo. Also, 09-10 didn't have big time moving parts to the N like we do now. Inches mean miles. What we just saw on the gfs was the se edge of the block to the NE in NY state move out of the way just a little further and soon. If you looked at just that little movement it would seem like nothing. But it meant a lot. There is no reason to believe it can't easily go the other way at this point. We have a long ways to go. Edit: and I totally agree with what psu just said. It was clearly a move in the right direction and adds some relief to the suppressed s trend continuing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Might do ok IMBY but looks like chilly rain for a good part of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I'm glad to see the GFS lost that ridiculous piece/wave over the Great Lakes that was trying to phase into this thing. The GFS yesterday was a clear outlier; and, a setup like that would have caused headaches and probably an even more out to sea track than it was portraying. Initially, a piece from California phases in and increases the moisture associated with the main system. But, if the Northwest Atlantic Blocking doesn't get out of the way, there is no way this can trend north. Like I said yesterday, these systems usually come on the heels of the blocking...not when the blocking has reached its furthest west point and then drifts south. I don't see how this can radically shift north over the next few days unless the models are waaaay off with the block. Edit: and by shift north, I mean to like the NYC-BOS corridor. A shift north into the DC-PHL corridor is still very much doable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 still a mainly west of dc snow accum verbatim. True but its too early to worry about that. a slight northward nudge to the upper low and we'd probably do OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I'm glad to see the GFS lost that ridiculous piece/wave over the Great Lakes that was trying to phase into this thing. The GFS yesterday was a clear outlier; and, a setup like that would have caused headaches and probably an even more out to sea track than it was portraying. Initially, a piece from California phases in and increases the moisture associated with the main system. But, if the Northwest Atlantic Blocking doesn't get out of the way, there is no way this can trend north. Like I said yesterday, these systems usually come on the heels of the blocking...not when the blocking has reached its furthest west point and then drifts south. I don't see how this can radically shift north over the next few days unless the models are waaaay off with the block. Edit: and by shift north, I mean to like the NYC-BOS corridor. A shift north into the DC-PHL corridor is still very much doable. I don't think anyone here cares if this misses Boston, but we appreciate the analysis nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 the annotations are for the cwg people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 So this looks like a 18-20 hour event, regardless of precip type. I'd take that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I guess I gotta wait for soundings to see how much is rain and snow. Shouldn't worry much about that now I guess but hopefully heavy precip can keep it mainly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I don't think anyone here cares if this misses Boston, but we appreciate the analysis nonetheless. True but I am trying to ease those concerns. I know I read some posts yesterday about how these "usually shift north" as we get closer. I'm suggesting that this may not be the case this time around as the anticyclone drops west and then south into Quebec. This puts your area in a great spot to be for a slight adjustment north but nothing too crazy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 12Z is much faster with storms arrival than 0Z. Like 12 hours faster. It is also a little north of 0Z. A good run for us for sure. Temps are def an issue on this run. Even out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 make it easy on peoples eyes: gfsqpf1.JPG Eye candy, but not all snow for my area. Starts as rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 True but I am trying to ease those concerns. I know I read some posts yesterday about how these "usually shift north" as we get closer. I'm suggesting that this may not be the case this time around as the anticyclone drops west and then south into Quebec. This puts your area in a great spot to be for a slight adjustment north but nothing too crazy... Yeah, agreed. Having the bullseye 75 miles south is not a bad spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 That secondary max of precip north of the main band could get us some decent rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 This is a good run. I said earlier I'm fine with a central va bullseye at 100 hours. This will bleed north a bit the final 72 hours. We needed the south trend to stop and this run edged north a bit. If we just need a 100 mile drift the last 48 hours were in good shape. I am very encouraged by this run. If we were 24 out I would be on the edge of my seat, but with such a long long way to go were fine. The key for everyone especially us like you said is the south trend stopped on the GFS. Seemed like this run of the GFS showed an enormous amount of precip on the ENE side of the low which I thought was a little weird. Now we will see what the other data says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 gfs_compare.jpg the annotations are for the cwg people. Good graphic. Even with an additional nwrd shift, this still is an even that is likely to better for the north and west crowd than DCA and mby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 While the GFS saw big adjustments over the last few runs with the Great Lakes and a gradual shift north with the actual storm, it hasn't budged with the NW Atlantic Low from what I can tell. If anything, today's 6z and 12z runs are exerting more influence from it than yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Good graphic. Even with an additional nwrd shift, this still is an even that is likely to better for the north and west crowd than DCA and mby. agreed. My expectations are quite low. Unless we get blasted I'd not expect a lot of a accum in the city even with an all day snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Hey Wes, I like how the 540 line is so far south. I'm wondering if snow will accumulate only on grass in the cities with some light general accumulation at night. The famous 1958 storm had slop near sea level in DC and Balto. with historic amounts at elevation. Good graphic. Even with an additional nwrd shift, this still is an even that is likely to better for the north and west crowd than DCA and mby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Given the soundings, I'd peg the first ~0.3" as rain and the last ~0.4" as snow at DCA. Just rough estimates though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Given the soundings, I'd peg the first ~0.3" as rain and the last ~0.4" as snow at DCA. Just rough estimates though. Groovey! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 lol GGEM takes the low just south of Richmond and we go to rain after starting as snow. Out to hr 110 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 GFS coming around it seems in the end, if I had my choice, I'd pick CHO as the place to be, but that's just gut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 GFS coming around it seems in the end, if I had my choice, I'd pick CHO as the place to be, but that's just gut yeah .. the qpf max hasn't moved all that much even with the northern edge expanding. one thing i think we want is to get off the edge. the edge is a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 yeah .. the qpf max hasn't moved all that much even with the northern edge expanding. one thing i think we want is to get off the edge. the edge is a problem. it was either MAR 82' or 83' when central VA had a big event and BWI missed out I think I recall DCA even seeing snow but we just had virga the only details I can recall was being really pi$$ed this event is reminding me of that storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 GFS coming around it seems in the end, if I had my choice, I'd pick CHO as the place to be, but that's just gut My concern is the GFS is MUCH warmer down my way -- ECMWF is a mix or snow end to end. GFS has a TON of rain. Agree on CHO being bullzeye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 yeah .. the qpf max hasn't moved all that much even with the northern edge expanding. one thing i think we want is to get off the edge. the edge is a problem. If the euro didn't do the jog se last night then it would have been a big precip hit. 12z gfs and 0z euro are pretty close overall. Considering the latest gfs runs, I would think the euro comes out with an e-ne track without a jog se. It's a shame this wasn't happening 3-4 weeks ago. Being on the edge wouldn't matter. But here were are facing another challenging and heartbreaking chance at snow. At least we have a lot of practice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 it was either MAR 82' or 83' when central VA had a big event and BWI missed out I think I recall DCA even seeing snow but we just had virga the only details I can recall was being really pi$$ed this event is reminding me of that storm Feb 27-28 1982. 12 inches in LYH. Capped off a nice winter down here-- 35 inches or so total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 My concern is the GFS is MUCH warmer down my way -- ECMWF is a mix or snow end to end. GFS has a TON of rain. Agree on CHO being bullzeye. Agree on temps comment.. the QPF maps are misleading because there are hours of rain on the GFS before it changes to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 NAVGEM has a ton of precip down by Williamsburg, no idea on ptype. Nearly an inch up by the DC metro, probably a sloppy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 lol GGEM takes the low just south of Richmond and we go to rain after starting as snow. Out to hr 110 Very wet run also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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