cut Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 This is a great way to verify forecasts by vendors and their accuracy (or lack there of). Really cool way to archive and reference actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I see jeff smith ch 7 accuwx going with 1-3 for the city area tomorrow night before changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I see jeff smith ch 7 accuwx going with 1-3 for the city area tomorrow night before changeover. Nick Gregory had 4-7"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I see jeff smith ch 7 accuwx going with 1-3 for the city area tomorrow night before changeover. That was his Sunday morning map for today . It`s Accuweather , they will hang you out to dry . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 That was his Sunday morning map for today . It`s Accuweather , they will hang you out to dry .Yeah I know ,but the thing that bothers me more is that he's a met, I'm sure he knows what some models show. Now I know he has to follow accuwx's forecast, but he made no mention that its early or things could change or some models show more...just showed that map and thats it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Yeah I know ,but the thing that bothers me more is that he's a met, I'm sure he knows what some models show. Now I know he has to follow accuwx's forecast, but he made no mention that its early or things could change or some models show more...just showed that map and thats it. What should really get pp attention is to listen to Craig Allen talk about a potential strong threat over the weekend. Craig and 6 days out usually don't cross paths . He did leave the precip type up in the air , but he never dips his toe in the water a week away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I'm sure it's been discussed here in the past, but what is up with Accuweather's 'forecast blurbs'? While everyone in the world was saying 4+" for LI, and WSWs were posted, Accuweather's blurb for my forecast was 'icy spots' on Tuesday night. It said nothing about the Monday snow, for which it was continuing to forecast 1-3" until this morning when it changed to 3-6 at some point. Currently, for Tuesday and Wednesday the forecast is 'Sun giving way to clouds' for Tuesday, and 'Cloudy with rain tapering off' for Wednesday. The current forecast blurb is 'Mixed rain and snow tomorrow night; Watch for icy spots'. Highlighting the Tuesday PM/Wed event and not acknowledging the Monday event, and now giving such a generic blurb for the same timeframe, I find to be next to useless. Edit: I see above that a very similar topic was being discussed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 JB, great explanation on why he likes the weekend system if you get his vid`s . Based on Euro Ensembles losing the 1 phased system look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Interesting and I think the first time I've seen it.....on Upton's snow map, they have me in the 6-8" in northern Essex county, and parts of Newark and EWR in the 2-4". Also southern Bergen county is 2-4" with northern sections in 8-10". I doubt it will turn out this way though....I think it will be more of a 1-4" event for most with the snowier areas way north and west 5-10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Joe B: "Dont let model runs drive you nuts. pattern recognition techniques make me confident of major storm, not model runs" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Steve D calling for a major ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Joe B: "Dont let model runs drive you nuts. pattern recognition techniques make me confident of major storm, not model runs" JB is spot on! The pattern screams for a MAJOR east coast storm this weekend. Not a two barrel low that would shear out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Don't I know if anyone follows the severe weather New Jersey page on Facebook but he re posted the weather bell nam snowfall map and its causing mass hysteria. He's usually pretty good and not sure why he'd post that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Don't I know if anyone follows the severe weather New Jersey page on Facebook but he re posted the weather bell nam snowfall map and its causing mass hysteria. He's usually pretty good and not sure why he'd post that link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Don't I know if anyone follows the severe weather New Jersey page on Facebook but he re posted the weather bell nam snowfall map and its causing mass hysteria. He's usually pretty good and not sure why he'd post that I went on there and called him out on it on my gf's fb since I don't use fb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I went on there and called him out on it on my gf's fb since I don't use fb. I saw John did too. Just irresponsible since most people are morons who don't know any better and don't read. But you can't post a map and say 'kaboom' and not expect people to freak out since its showing amounts 2 to 3x what local forecasts are saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Here is his post btw: I understand that he does explicity say this is a run of the nam and not what his forecast is but why even post the map then? It can only cause confusion Severe NJ Weatherabout an hour ago KABOOOOOM goes the latest NAM for overnight tonight into tomorrow!This map shows inches of snowfall. Remember though...parts of CNJ and NNJ will be changing over to a horrific ice storm before going to rain during this. White areas on this model slide (SNJ/SENJ) should expect minimal wintry impact to start before going to all rain. NNJ has the best chance for snow accumulations before a possible late changeover. I'm not sure totals will be this high but you get the idea as far as snow distribution.If you're in the purple/pink areas of this map please stay off the roads tomorrow unless you have a tank. Even then...you might slide!Model image reproduced with permission from WeatherBell Analytics. Be safe! JC — with Louise Cranston and Debra Preziosi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Here is his post btw: I understand that he does explicity say this is a run of the nam and not what his forecast is but why even post the map then? It can only cause confusion Severe NJ Weather about an hour ago KABOOOOOM goes the latest NAM for overnight tonight into tomorrow! This map shows inches of snowfall. Remember though...parts of CNJ and NNJ will be changing over to a horrific ice storm before going to rain during this. White areas on this model slide (SNJ/SENJ) should expect minimal wintry impact to start before going to all rain. NNJ has the best chance for snow accumulations before a possible late changeover. I'm not sure totals will be this high but you get the idea as far as snow distribution. If you're in the purple/pink areas of this map please stay off the roads tomorrow unless you have a tank. Even then...you might slide! Model image reproduced with permission from WeatherBell Analytics. Be safe! JC— with Louise Cranston and Debra Preziosi. So I posted the nam map off the meteocentre site and then explained why hes wrong on multiple levels for posting this. Then poof. It all disappears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 What a tool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 DT "final call". He himself Claims he is on the low end (compared to other forecasters) of snow forecast for nnj to long island. Thoughts? Also lost in the shuffle, northern burbs of dc and Baltimore seem to ice pretty good in this event according to his map Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Looks ok but not sure about 4-7" hvy sleet. I'm guessing he means 4-7" of snow then sleet If anything he's too high with snow totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Looks ok but not sure about 4-7" hvy sleet. I'm guessing he means 4-7" of snow then sleet If anything he's too high with snow totals And maybe too low around north of the PA border in NYS near Ithica Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Joe Bastardi's tweets tonight are a must read! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Created a blog for the mini Feb 9th event. http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=10&topicid=73914&Itemid=179 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Jeff Smith going 1-3 for Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Larry Cosgrove: "The low and frontal structure pushing eastward from OH to NJ on Sunday could bring brief moderate/heavy snow squalls. Be very careful on major interstates and other roads near the Philly and NYC metros around dinner time...it will be slick and white, 1-3" accumulation." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 LC for the late week storm "An upper air disturbance will slide eastward from New Mexico starting late today. Despite what the 6z model runs may have shown....this system represents snow and ice chances for the Dixie states from AR into SC/NC (above Interstate 20). Heavy rain and thunderstorms should develop from Houston TX into the New Orleans LA metro starting Monday night. This feature will be the start of what could be a big storm along the Eastern Seaboard and over Appalachia on February 12 - 13. And I suspect this time around, mostly rain for the entire length of the Interstate 95 corridor (would not rule out start or end as snow/sleet however; but this seems like a snowmaker for the elevated areas of E TN, W NC, W VA, E KY, WV, W MD, C PA into the interior of New England)." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 DT "final call". He himself Claims he is on the low end (compared to other forecasters) of snow forecast for nnj to long island. Thoughts? Also lost in the shuffle, northern burbs of dc and Baltimore seem to ice pretty good in this event according to his map Sent from my iPhone Don't worry, after the storm, no matter what happens, DT will claim he is right. Or he will go off the deep end. Why people even listen to him at all is beyond me. He either goes off the deep end when anyone questions him, will lie/fudge about what he forecast in an effort to make himself look good,. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Don't worry, after the storm, no matter what happens, DT will claim he is right. Or he will go off the deep end. Why people even listen to him at all is beyond me. He either goes off the deep end when anyone questions him, will lie/fudge about what he forecast in an effort to make himself look good,. The thing is he's been touting the euro for this weeks storm calling the rest garbage. But the euro no longer supports his snow to rain on the coast idea. So if we get a lot of snow he'll just say how great the euro was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The thing is he's been touting the euro for this weeks storm calling the rest garbage. But the euro no longer supports his snow to rain on the coast idea. So if we get a lot of snow he'll just say how great the euro was his post an hour ago made no sense: "** ALERT ** ALL WEATHER MODELS SHIFT TO BIG INLAND SNOWSTORM SCENARIO OF EUROPEAN MODEL *" and of course now, in addition to making no sense, it has become obsolete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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