WeatherX Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Jerry, I like 4-6" for KBOS as things stand right now.....can't go higher than that now, but maybe it tickles up if the advertised deform sets up.... Enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 You guys have to realize that temps near freezing with fluffy ULL snow that the GFS is advertising on Sunday means little accumulations unless it comes down hard. Low water content snow is hard to stick unless it's cold or coming down hard this time of year. Those precip rates on the GFS weren't terribly exciting..maybe it sticks to existing snow or grass...something like that. I'm speaking for lower elevations of course. HPC basically tossed the GFS for this system at the coast. SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST PREFERENCE: NON-GFS COMPROMISE WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THE NAM WAS ABOUT 3C TOO WARM AT THE 850 HPA LEVEL ALONG COASTAL NEW ENGLAND PER THE 12Z RADIOSONDE OBSERVATIONS IN TAUNTON, MASSACHUSETTS AND GRAY, MAINE; THE GFS ERRORS WERE CLOSER TO 2C. THE GUIDANCE WAS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSION/DEPTH OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST AND NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK, UNTIL THE 12Z GFS SHIFTED IT SOUTHWARD. ALOFT, THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE FLUNG WELL EAST OF THE DEEP CYCLONE IN THE GREAT LAKES, ALLOWING IT TO CLOSE OFF AS IT APPROACHES ATLANTIC CANADA. THE 12Z GFS IS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AT THE SURFACE DUE TO ITS WEAKER/OPEN SOLUTION ALOFT, AND IS CONSIDERED A SOUTHERN/WEAK OUTLIER. SINCE THE DETERMINISTIC SPREAD WITH THIS PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM IS RELATIVELY SMALL OTHERWISE, PREFER A NON-GFS COMPROMISE HERE WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONSIDERING ITS QUICK MOVEMENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 HPC basically tossed the GFS for this system at the coast. Yeah that's not to suggest the GFS op, even the ensembles are NW...but it's an indictment of the airmass and a little daytime heating. Just wanted to clarify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2013 Author Share Posted February 22, 2013 HPC basically tossed the GFS for this system at the coast. What's annoying about their reasoning is that it's devoid of much reasoning... They only cite that the run is a SE/weak outlier, but they don't explain why that means not using it. If there were something in particular they can discretely hone in on, ....like, say, "5 dm too high or low" in a region, and that "causes x,y,z out in time", THAT would be entirely more useful. Yeah... okay, so outlier is suspect most of the time. We get it, but sometimes coups happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 12z GFS indiv members are out. Some look ok, others are meh like the Op. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_12z/ensprsloopmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Well we'll know in 20 minutes. I scheduled a day off today and hence was up for the euro and slept in till the nam was nearly done. I'm sticking 3-6 for mby but thanks to John and Winterland for the opinions. Looks like I'm on the low side of the weenie guidance...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 weatherfellla don't be fool'd on the cp of thinkin even 2 inches is a lock with this thing being up in the air wrt dynamics, marginal airmass etc. When Harv says is one of his dificult forecasts we can't predict anything with confidence for bos area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 weatherfellla don't be fool'd on the cp of thinkin even 2 inches is a lock with this thing being up in the air wrt dynamics, marginal airmass etc. When Harv says is one of his dificult forecasts we can't predict anything with confidence for bos area. Understood but what is your best guess? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 12z gefs look like crap to me....nearly all of them .......some awful some meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 My guess is the euro probably stays steady as she goes or close to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Hater. Harsh. 5" for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Well we'll know in 20 minutes. I scheduled a day off today and hence was up for the euro and slept in till the nam was nearly done. I'm sticking 3-6 for mby but thanks to John and Winterland for the opinions. Looks like I'm on the low side of the weenie guidance...lol. We are going to get you to the promised land, my friend. By hook or crook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 And Pickles....you are my friend so you must understand that weather is not in my screen name in part. jerry i think is almost point less to guess.....unless it is w the caveat of if option A happens than we have a-b amounts if option B happens we may have x-z amounts. i haven't been following it extremely close yet but i'm not getting a fuzzy feeling on this one. I go the way of the euro like 80% weight. Ens were a touch more juiced. Jerry lets just PRAY the euro has the SW catch up faster to the initial system we need the comma head dynamics to get confidence in accums in bos metro euro has been swaying a tad and messenger sees some trends in it that he doesn't think are done so i think euro could show .6 to 1.6 qpf for boston big spread. and we better get dynamics or beantown won't be accumulating much at all . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 My guess is the euro probably stays steady as she goes or close to it. Honestly, with the Euro mean a little more amped, you should hope so. As Phil said a degree or teo here or there and I'm looking at a solid snowstorm imby based on the 12z models today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 jerry i think is almost point less to guess.....unless it is w the caveat of if option A happens than we have a-b amounts if option B happens we may have x-z amounts. i haven't been following it extremely close yet but i'm not getting a fuzzy feeling on this one. I go the way of the euro like 80% weight. Ens were a touch more juiced. Jerry lets just PRAY the euro has the SW catch up faster to the initial system we need the comma head dynamics to get confidence in accums in bos metro euro has been swaying a tad and messenger sees some trends in it that he doesn't think are done so i think euro could show .6 to 1.6 qpf for boston big spread. and we better get dynamics or beantown won't be accumulating much at all . I agree with this post. We're at the time of year when great setups seemingly on the surface can give us light glop vs bad setups pounding us with snow. Not sure but hence my 3-6 guess. I could see minimal and much more dependent on alot of things. Of late in this pattern, things have been breaking right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Euro out to 12. Someone do the play by play. I'm heading into the shower and will have the verdict upon my exit back to this tablet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Honestly, with the Euro mean a little more amped, you should hope so. As Phil said a degree or teo here or there and I'm looking at a solid snowstorm imby based on the 12z models today. With every run shifting the ULL and srn vortmax around..it makes me wonder if we still have a little bit to go. Yes we are closer with the 12z runs today, but 36-48hrs left until the good stuff moves in and that's plenty of time for subtle shifts in the upper levels to have a huge impact at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Will might agree this is one where the dynamics bring nice totals are weak dynamics will come with warmer ml and llvl temps making it tough to accumulate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Jerry is going to get his 4-6"..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 it's not good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 it's not good I was not going to say it, Its SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Wow... Euro is barely 1-3 in many areas back this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I was not going to say it, Its SE Anything up here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Euro is more like the GFS than UK through 24 hours with the southern vort (UK is a hair faster). But they are all clustered together at that range so not much to work with yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 it's weak...through 48 its a little south of the BM...~1000mb. precip is quite light. 0C 850 up to the pike or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Anything up here? Got to wait a couple more panels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Wow... Euro is barely 1-3 in many areas back this way. how about orh-bos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Euro looks similar to the GGEM to me through 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Wow... Euro is barely 1-3 in many areas back this way. Could see this coming....oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 it's probably advisory criteria n of the pike...minimal accumulations 1-3 south of the pike if that. then some light wraparound stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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